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Energy Sector at Most Oversold Levels of Last 18 Months

Stretch it out beyond 18 months and the chart paints a different picture...

We've been in a crazy energy run for about 2 years now; a little pullback is to be expected.

However, depending on whether we're going to continue this energy run or just trade sideways, or whether this is going down like the rest of the market when recession is confirmed and priced in, is the real unknown here.

In the last 18 months, energy sector is on a run that assumes prices always go up and demand will continue to be tight. If recession or depression becomes reality, the demand will continue to slacken as prices drops -- and that's the risk for this sector.