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  • Is Buy-and-Hold Dead? Hardly [View article]
    Lets factor out holding 100s of years or to infinity. If you want to use that as yardstick, I automatically lose.

    Lets use a productive adult generation: 30 years.

    The answer to this question: Depends what period and what crisis you believe us to be in:

    If you think we're re-anacting either 1929 or Japan style depression, you want to know that Japan Nikkei stock index is now back to 25 years ago, *INCLUDING* survivorship bias. (so actual losses would've been higher if you bought the index 25 years ago)

    You can still buy and hold, but you'll have to justify to me why hold 25+ years is better than say strictly saving in TIPS, bonds or CDs for 25 years.

    If you believe we're in 2001, 1989 or even 1974; then this is a great time to buy and hold it until the crisis is over. It'll be over no more than 3-5 years, and you'll be the envy of your neighborhood.

    If you believe this is a black swan event, then I cannot advise you and any answer you pick is most likely a gamble. In that case, maybe you should also include Vegas as one investment strategy?

    Finally, if this is the end of civilization as we know it, I would buy and hold bullets, guns, seeds and eggs; but mostly bullets.
    Nov 14 17:03 pm |Rating: +8 -1 |Link to Comment
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