sr9web

S&P 500 Breaks Another Resistance Level

I agree. you need 3days with+volume


On Apr 30 03:09 PM Khaleel wrote:

> I completely agree 'Speeddaimon'. A 'Fasle Break-out' of the Price
> Line is very common only to see it retrace back below resistance
> and make its way South! I am no expert either but I believe 3 consecutive
> days with increasing volume which is pivotal provides more supportive
> evidence of a 'Breakout.'

Las Vegas Homeowners Lose Their Bets as Home Prices Fall

I own a split-level ranch 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath, stand alone garage West of Boston. Bought in 2000 for 250ish and now owe 150ish. Have 15 years left on a 5.65 fixed. The housing crisis is only being experienced by people who bought too much house for too much $$.


On Apr 30 10:58 PM capitalisthero.com wrote:

> Las Vegas is ground zero for the financial crisis. I bought my house
> in November for $540,000. My new next door neighbor just bought his
> house for $385,000. There goes my $120,000 down payment.
>
> I'm hoping the upcoming double digit inflation will eat away my mortgage
> debt and raise the value of my house if only in nominal terms.

Green Shoots or Green Shorts?

This comment should be required reading for all the kool-aid drinkers buying BAC and C right now.


On Apr 28 10:05 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> It's looking scarier. Over the weekend, the Financial Times published
> an editorial by the outspoken London School of Economics professor
> and former Bank of England policy board member, William Buiter, arguing
> that the green shoots we are seeing in the world economy are really
> weeds. He argued that the slowdown in the rate of decline is anything
> but a recovery. A real recovery won’t come until late 2010 at the
> earliest. First, we must destroy the zombie banks by wiping out both
> the current equity and debt holders. Once the giant holes in the
> balance sheets in these institutions become obvious, there will be
> a second leg down in the financial crisis, and taxpayers aren’t going
> to brook another bail out. The government’s incrementalist approach
> to rescuing the banks and ignoring the borrowers is only prolonging
> the crisis. For those who believe the financials are now the new
> one way trade, this is all sobering food for thought.

Getting Out of the Debt Crisis: Just Renounce It

This past week, my son's Oldsmobile transmission failed at 135k. We had a repair shop rebuild it for $2,500. I'm not in any rush to buy a new car and certainly not in any rush to buy a GM - even less so if the Feds keep juicing a deal favoring the unions. Those UAW workers make twice what I make and have plenty of money already - they should be giving me $$, not the other way around.

The Insidious Secondary Effects of TARP Funding

Uh, are we concerned about affects or effects here...

Insiders Are Selling into the Rally

Sell some coverd calls. When the market tanks, buy them back for less $$


On Apr 25 12:16 AM Dustinian wrote:

> I too saw this article today and it has stuck with me throughout
> the day. Very alarming.
>
> If I owned any financials, I'd sell. But being that I have already
> done that, I am hesitant to unload any of my emerging market stocks
> as I am skeptical that I will be able to pick them up again as cheaply
> as I did in the beginning of March.
>
> All the signs are indicating that we are heading for a somewhat significant
> pullback, but I'd be surprised if the DOW went under 7,000 again.

Beazer Homes: Option Traders Expecting Major Move Higher in Another Homebuilder

good post

On Apr 25 12:18 PM metalhead wrote:

> I've taken a detailed look at this companies balance sheet, and unless
> you are a quick trader I'd stay far away.
>
> They aren't generating enough sales to offset debt service. They've
> pulled out of markets, slashed staff and costs, but their land positions
> are still huge. Available cash is down around $400 million, and they
> have a coupon payment due next month ($136 million.) Unless they
> can generate significant increases in sales, they will be bankrupt
> in early 2010.
>
> I am projecting about 3-5K closings for FY 2009, based on past quarters
> numbers. Unfortunately, if they aggressively slash prices to meet
> quotas they will take more balance sheet impairments. This will reduce
> their tangible net worth below covenant thresholds, potentially triggering
> margin calls on 10% of their debt (another $180 million.) If that
> happens, they will probably file ch. 11 later this year.

What If the Stress Test is Just the Opening Act

It's outrageous that we bailed out Goldma fat-cats via AIG backdoor. GS is agressively black-box trading the market in big numbers every day. Why should we the taxpayers make it any easier for those rich slobs to fleece us in the market?


On Apr 24 12:33 PM Repsonsible Citizen wrote:

> For me its SIMPLE ,, GOLDMAN got $180 BILLION Tax Dollars through
> the back door of the AIG Bailout . To Pay Off GOLDMAN at 100% on
> their BAD CDS s
> NOBODY ELSE GOT Paid on them most lost 99% . GoldMan OWES the US
> Goverment $180 Billion , Maybe with the NEW TARP FRAUD Investagations
> it will finally be made Public and GOLDMAN will have to PAY Back
> that $180 BILLION !

We're Still Not Done with This Bear Market Rally

sounds aboout right...


On Apr 21 09:08 AM Carl Spackler wrote:

> Simple success formula = short the market whenever it crosses the
> 50 day MA. Market has crossed the 50 day MA 4 times prior and every
> time if failed within a month to hold over the 50 day MA. Average
> stay above the 50 day MA was about 2 weeks. We are a little over
> 2 weeks above it now. After making a ton following this simple formula,
> I will not bet against it this time. In markets with strong trends
> (in this case downward), never go counter-trend. It is usually suicide.
> Counter-trend bettors can be right for only a month, but then you
> are left holding a bunch of $2 bank stocks. Too much downward momemtum
> is around - just check the monthly charts.

Closing Update: Streak Stretches Six

Ok, so your suggestion is that we keep bidding stocks up and up so as to advance a "bull market"?


On Apr 17 07:47 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> Most rational observers are coming around to the idea that the we
> have now decisively bounced off the bottom. My observation of previous
> market bottoms indicate that an indica is back to back rally lasting
> 4 - 7 weeks.
> Here are my bear market charts.
> docs.google.com/Presen...;hl=en
>
>
> On a fundamental basis the S&P is now trading on a forward PE
> of between 12 - 14. This is at the same level it was in 1989-1990
> when the great bull of the 90's started.

Despite Fed, Money Supply Contracting

Keeping inflated values on the bank books if criminal fraud.


On Apr 17 08:37 AM D. McHattie wrote:

> If I understand correctly, until banks sell the foreclosed homes
> they can still pretend they are worth the original mortgage amount.
> So there is a perverse incentive for banks to not do what needs to
> be done to clear up this crisis.
>
> Meanwhile, productive young people are putting their lives on hold
> as decent housing remains indecently overpriced.
>
> Once again, government and banks act opposite to the best interests
> of the electorate.

Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb Ticking for REITs

Excellent post

Housing: Numbers Starting to Fall in Line

"the housing market is closer to reflecting reality"

Foolish one.

VIX Milestones, Plus a Prediction

Thanks , Post more tips


On Apr 17 08:11 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> Usually when VIX drops in a bear market it is a good signal to buy
> puts on your current positions if not go short.
>
> Ooops, I'm giving away trade secrets. How do you think traders make
> $ off of bear market? Up they win, down they win, everywhere around
> they win because too many people don't play volatility or hedge their
> positions when the price is good.

Leading ETFs: What to Watch Now

Cetin should study this:

dshort.com/charts/mega...


On Apr 16 04:35 PM jambo wrote:

> Hey Cetin!
> New picture... and... why yes, those glasses ARE rose colored, just
> as we suspected. Short term YOU have been right, no doubt. Long term,
> you're goin down, also no doubt.
> Its not my style to root against, but perhaps it's the self assuredness
> in your statements that has me hiding in the bushes waiting for the
> 'big trip'.