sr9web's Comments

S&P 500 Breaks Another Resistance Level

Fri, 01 May 2009 00:40:35 -0400

I agree. you need 3days with+volume

On Apr 30 03:09 PM Khaleel wrote:

> I completely agree 'Speeddaimon'. A 'Fasle Break-out' of the Price
> Line is very common only to see it retrace back below resistance
> and make its way South! I am no expert either but I believe 3 consecutive
> days with increasing volume which is pivotal provides more supportive
> evidence of a 'Breakout.'

Las Vegas Homeowners Lose Their Bets as Home Prices Fall

Fri, 01 May 2009 00:31:22 -0400

I own a split-level ranch 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath, stand alone garage West of Boston. Bought in 2000 for 250ish and now owe 150ish. Have 15 years left on a 5.65 fixed. The housing crisis is only being experienced by people who bought too much house for too much $$.

On Apr 30 10:58 PM capitalisthero.com wrote:

> Las Vegas is ground zero for the financial crisis. I bought my house
> in November for $540,000. My new next door neighbor just bought his
> house for $385,000. There goes my $120,000 down payment.
>
> I'm hoping the upcoming double digit inflation will eat away my mortgage
> debt and raise the value of my house if only in nominal terms.

Green Shoots or Green Shorts?

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:03:40 -0400

This comment should be required reading for all the kool-aid drinkers buying BAC and C right now.

On Apr 28 10:05 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> It's looking scarier. Over the weekend, the Financial Times published
> an editorial by the outspoken London School of Economics professor
> and former Bank of England policy board member, William Buiter, arguing
> that the green shoots we are seeing in the world economy are really
> weeds. He argued that the slowdown in the rate of decline is anything
> but a recovery. A real recovery won’t come until late 2010 at the
> earliest. First, we must destroy the zombie banks by wiping out both
> the current equity and debt holders. Once the giant holes in the
> balance sheets in these institutions become obvious, there will be
> a second leg down in the financial crisis, and taxpayers aren’t going
> to brook another bail out. The government’s incrementalist approach
> to rescuing the banks and ignoring the borrowers is only prolonging
> the crisis. For those who believe the financials are now the new
> one way trade, this is all sobering food for thought.

Getting Out of the Debt Crisis: Just Renounce It

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:38:51 -0400

This past week, my son's Oldsmobile transmission failed at 135k. We had a repair shop rebuild it for $2,500. I'm not in any rush to buy a new car and certainly not in any rush to buy a GM - even less so if the Feds keep juicing a deal favoring the unions. Those UAW workers make twice what I make and have plenty of money already - they should be giving me $$, not the other way around.

The Insidious Secondary Effects of TARP Funding

Sun, 26 Apr 2009 22:19:55 -0400

Uh, are we concerned about affects or effects here...

Insiders Are Selling into the Rally

Sat, 25 Apr 2009 13:13:01 -0400

Sell some coverd calls. When the market tanks, buy them back for less $$

On Apr 25 12:16 AM Dustinian wrote:

> I too saw this article today and it has stuck with me throughout
> the day. Very alarming.
>
> If I owned any financials, I'd sell. But being that I have already
> done that, I am hesitant to unload any of my emerging market stocks
> as I am skeptical that I will be able to pick them up again as cheaply
> as I did in the beginning of March.
>
> All the signs are indicating that we are heading for a somewhat significant
> pullback, but I'd be surprised if the DOW went under 7,000 again.

Beazer Homes: Option Traders Expecting Major Move Higher in Another Homebuilder

Sat, 25 Apr 2009 13:12:02 -0400

good post

On Apr 25 12:18 PM metalhead wrote:

> I've taken a detailed look at this companies balance sheet, and unless
> you are a quick trader I'd stay far away.
>
> They aren't generating enough sales to offset debt service. They've
> pulled out of markets, slashed staff and costs, but their land positions
> are still huge. Available cash is down around $400 million, and they
> have a coupon payment due next month ($136 million.) Unless they
> can generate significant increases in sales, they will be bankrupt
> in early 2010.
>
> I am projecting about 3-5K closings for FY 2009, based on past quarters
> numbers. Unfortunately, if they aggressively slash prices to meet
> quotas they will take more balance sheet impairments. This will reduce
> their tangible net worth below covenant thresholds, potentially triggering
> margin calls on 10% of their debt (another $180 million.) If that
> happens, they will probably file ch. 11 later this year.

What If the Stress Test is Just the Opening Act

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:15:38 -0400

It's outrageous that we bailed out Goldma fat-cats via AIG backdoor. GS is agressively black-box trading the market in big numbers every day. Why should we the taxpayers make it any easier for those rich slobs to fleece us in the market?

On Apr 24 12:33 PM Repsonsible Citizen wrote:

> For me its SIMPLE ,, GOLDMAN got $180 BILLION Tax Dollars through
> the back door of the AIG Bailout . To Pay Off GOLDMAN at 100% on
> their BAD CDS s
> NOBODY ELSE GOT Paid on them most lost 99% . GoldMan OWES the US
> Goverment $180 Billion , Maybe with the NEW TARP FRAUD Investagations
> it will finally be made Public and GOLDMAN will have to PAY Back
> that $180 BILLION !

We're Still Not Done with This Bear Market Rally

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 16:07:07 -0400

sounds aboout right...

On Apr 21 09:08 AM Carl Spackler wrote:

> Simple success formula = short the market whenever it crosses the
> 50 day MA. Market has crossed the 50 day MA 4 times prior and every
> time if failed within a month to hold over the 50 day MA. Average
> stay above the 50 day MA was about 2 weeks. We are a little over
> 2 weeks above it now. After making a ton following this simple formula,
> I will not bet against it this time. In markets with strong trends
> (in this case downward), never go counter-trend. It is usually suicide.
> Counter-trend bettors can be right for only a month, but then you
> are left holding a bunch of $2 bank stocks. Too much downward momemtum
> is around - just check the monthly charts.

Closing Update: Streak Stretches Six

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 21:32:24 -0400

Ok, so your suggestion is that we keep bidding stocks up and up so as to advance a "bull market"?

On Apr 17 07:47 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> Most rational observers are coming around to the idea that the we
> have now decisively bounced off the bottom. My observation of previous
> market bottoms indicate that an indica is back to back rally lasting
> 4 - 7 weeks.
> Here are my bear market charts.
> docs.google.com/Presen...;hl=en
>
>
> On a fundamental basis the S&P is now trading on a forward PE
> of between 12 - 14. This is at the same level it was in 1989-1990
> when the great bull of the 90's started.

Despite Fed, Money Supply Contracting

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 10:17:08 -0400

Keeping inflated values on the bank books if criminal fraud.

On Apr 17 08:37 AM D. McHattie wrote:

> If I understand correctly, until banks sell the foreclosed homes
> they can still pretend they are worth the original mortgage amount.
> So there is a perverse incentive for banks to not do what needs to
> be done to clear up this crisis.
>
> Meanwhile, productive young people are putting their lives on hold
> as decent housing remains indecently overpriced.
>
> Once again, government and banks act opposite to the best interests
> of the electorate.

Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb Ticking for REITs

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 10:04:02 -0400

Excellent post

Housing: Numbers Starting to Fall in Line

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 09:28:08 -0400

"the housing market is closer to reflecting reality"

Foolish one.

VIX Milestones, Plus a Prediction

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 09:26:39 -0400

Thanks , Post more tips

On Apr 17 08:11 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> Usually when VIX drops in a bear market it is a good signal to buy
> puts on your current positions if not go short.
>
> Ooops, I'm giving away trade secrets. How do you think traders make
> $ off of bear market? Up they win, down they win, everywhere around
> they win because too many people don't play volatility or hedge their
> positions when the price is good.

Leading ETFs: What to Watch Now

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 23:34:50 -0400

Cetin should study this:

dshort.com/charts/mega...

On Apr 16 04:35 PM jambo wrote:

> Hey Cetin!
> New picture... and... why yes, those glasses ARE rose colored, just
> as we suspected. Short term YOU have been right, no doubt. Long term,
> you're goin down, also no doubt.
> Its not my style to root against, but perhaps it's the self assuredness
> in your statements that has me hiding in the bushes waiting for the
> 'big trip'.

S&P 500 Moving Average Analysis

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 23:08:06 -0400

Excellent article!

Back to the Investment Drawing Board

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 04:08:58 -0400

You are clealry retarded.

On Apr 14 12:49 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> SPX much higher..

A Closer Look at This Wonderful Rally

Tue, 14 Apr 2009 22:17:57 -0400

true

On Apr 14 11:14 AM tc1 wrote:

> It's easy to become bullish when a rally runs 5 or 6 weeks. Just
> remember, as one analyst pointed out here for SeekingAlpha several
> weeks back, that the average bear market rally lasts around 2 months
> and a 25% gain. We've achieved the 25% avg gain, but so fast (in
> only 5 weeks' time), that we may be in for a nasty return of the
> ferocious bear.
>
> It could be that this rally stretches on for some more weeks and
> reaches 30% or 35% gain (not unlikely, given how far down it plunged
> by March 9), but anyone thinking that this thing can go on indefinitely
> with such lousy fundamentals in the economy is (in my not-so-humble
> opinion) DREAMING. :-)

PIMCO's Kiesel: Three Reasons to Buy High-Grade Corporate Bonds Now

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 13:04:40 -0400

I've got LQD on my watch list to see if we get another LQD price collpase like Oct 08. This ETF rarely spikes down badly, but when it does, buying it is a sure winner.

On Apr 13 11:05 AM Steve in TN wrote:

> The ETF that most mirrors the author's recommendation for corporate
> bonds is LQD. Unfortunately, this bond ETF is long-term in duration.
> I wish there were a corp. bond ETF that was short or intermediate
> term in nature. If any reader knows of a good short or intermediate
> term low-expense bond mutual fund please comment on it.

The Real Bank Bailout: An Upward Sloping Yield Curve

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 03:57:36 -0400

Hmmm... Feds inject MIND-BOGGLINGLY HUGE amounts of $$ into the banks, so as a result, they get some cash-flow and call it "profit". PS: Yield-spreads only help when credit-viable loans are being made. Total lending is still dropping, not rising and won't reverse anytime soon.

Banks Are Unwilling to Solve REO Problems

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 03:41:24 -0400

Ostrich syndrome is running amuck

On Apr 12 12:40 PM WAKEUP wrote:

> "Empty homes are deteriorating in value ..." This item, even apart
> from the other thrust of this article points up a problem that I
> have been noticing for over a year, now. There is an ever-increasing
> number of houses sitting empty throughout at least the entire southeastern
> part of this country. I see them in my travels, and I can tell you
> that the number is increasing steadily. I make notes as time allows,
> when I pass through these areas. A street, for example, that has
> more than one empty, upscale home, in January, will have a couple
> more empties, in February; by April, in some cases, eight of the
> fifteen houses on that street stand empty. Some have "For Sale" signs,
> some don't; but they are obviously EMPTY. Where, you ask? Oh, start
> with Birmingham, Memphis, and Charlotte, for examples. (This is not
> limited to the larger cities; smaller cities are getting hit, also.)
> And make no mistake about it, vandalism is taking hold. A striking
> feature of this is that most of the damage, plainly visible from
> the street, goes unrepaired. But mention this to anyone who works
> in real estate or banking in any of these cities, and they will claim
> that "there's not all that much of that, HERE." Then start naming
> places in THAT city where you have SEEN these empty, vandalized houses,
> and the real estate/banking persons suddenly remember that they are
> late for a meeting, someplace else. My conclusion, based on the above
> and other personal observations is that the real estate mess is even
> bigger than anyone in Officialdom is letting on. What I SEE flies
> in the face of ANY optimism that the real estate collapse is anywhere
> near "bottoming." It's a real MESS out there, folks, and it's getting
> worse, as the feel-good talk flows. There is no telling how long
> this situation is going to go on.

A Word of Caution on Double Bottoms

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 03:38:21 -0400

Sell some out of the money covered-calls and buy them back after the next pullback

On Apr 12 04:17 PM Mayascribe wrote:

> To those who continually say this is a trader's market. My thoughts
> agree with you, but my trading account says you're categorically
> wrong.
>
> How many of us active traders are kicking unmovable objects that
> we had shares of Wells Fargo @ under $8.00 (now $19.97)? GE under
> $7.00 (now $11.41). Yamana Gold under $5.00 (now $8.12). Exide under
> $2.00 (now $4.84)? A Power Systems (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> under $3.50 (now $5.90)? Yingli Green Energy under $4.00 (now $7.27)?
>
>
> Unfortunately, I listened too much to the TV "experts" as well as
> experts here at SA and reduced my positions in all of the above stocks,
> and a few more. Am I irked? You betcha!
>
> Most of the people on these shows like "Fast Money" are active traders
> and covet a volatile market, to their gain. Yet, all of those traders
> will say most definitely that all of the above stocks will be trading
> even higher than they are now in one year. Likely, much higher.

>
> It's all about pain tolerance, and patience. "Buy and Hold" is most
> definitely not dead. Even if this is a dead cat bounce (which I believe
> it is), even if the market goes way down (which I believe will happen
> again), the November, December and March lows of the above stocks,
> and so many more, will not be seen again.
>
> Other than a day trade, I wouldn't be buying right now. But, most
> certainly, I'm not selling any more shares of stocks I bought when
> the market was at its recent bottoms. I learned my lesson...the hard
> way.

New Bull Market or a Bear Market Rally?

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 03:32:58 -0400

Where can I read more about this type of wave trend learning?
Do you have a link?
Any good books to reco?

On Apr 12 09:29 AM maxe wrote:

> This is simply a wave 2 rally of the wave 3 bear market. People who
> buy into this new bull market mentality clearly do not understand
> basic technical anaysis. Bull markets unfold in a 5 wave uptrend
> and bear markets unfold in a 3 wave downtrend.
>
> It's so simple it's often misunderstood because the market should
> never be, or seem as simple.

Scary Unemployment Numbers You Probably Missed

Sun, 12 Apr 2009 00:02:29 -0400

Unemployed people don't default on their credit cards, not until they are out of work for 6 months to a year. So, let's see, if unemployment is still on a tear and has been for several months, we'll have HOW MANY people defaulting on charge cards by year end?...

On Apr 11 04:05 PM Fueled By Randomness wrote:

> It is important to realize why unemployment is typically a "lagging
> indicator". In the garden variety recession we are accustomed to,
> the Fed raises interest rates which reduces demand which leads to
> bloated inventories which leads to layoffs until the inventory can
> be worked off. By the time the effects propogate thru the system
> and cause layoffs, much of the systemic correction has already occurred.
> But this time it could be different. A contraction caused by debt
> deflation and balance sheet issues does not turn so quickly. Unemployment
> is part of the negative feedback loop that is active. Worsening unemployment
> may cause more loans to default (credit cards, houses) causing more
> debt deflation and balance sheets issues eventually causing more
> unemployment. Think of a large martix of dominos whereby knocking
> one down in the first row causes two to fall in the second, four
> in the third, etc, etc. So unemployment may not be a lagging indicator
> this time. Hope this is wrong but be observant.

Cramer's Call: Another Rally Top Indicator?

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:37:31 -0400

So you're saying "it's different this time"?

On Apr 10 12:09 PM InvestBaboo wrote:

> I suggest you look at what people are actually doing -- not what
> they are seeing. What you will see is a resurgence in a multitude
> of stocks in a multitude of industries. When you do this it is very
> easy to see that Gold is a Sell and banks are a buy and so on. When
> you deep analyze the patterns you may actually see that we are at
> the beginning phase of another bull market like the one that began
> after Regan took over.
>
> I am of the opinion that the kick in the jewels that America got
> in 2008 will lead to a better people and stronger nation. That is
> the premise on which I am hanging all these extraordinary bull signs
> I am seeing in the charts. Continuing on that premise I think that
> several stocks that trading today at single digits that have shown
> unusual chart patterns could actually top their 2007-2008 52 week
> highs in the next couple of years! We are presented with an extraordinary
> wealth creation opportunity but many of us I suspect will sit on
> the sidelines and lament later with hindsight. I am going to author
> an article that highlights well over 70 or so stocks that I picked
> when the Dow was at its lowest and to date has appreciated considerably
> from the date of purchase. I have reason to believe that many of
> them will exceed their previous highs in the next couple of years.
> Imagine this -- 500 shares bought at 1500 bucks could be worth $20K
> or $30K or $70K in just a handful of years! Do not ignore the opportunity
> at hand to make extraordinary wealth. Shut out the noise and see
> what is really going on not what people are talking about.
>
> Last point about Cramer. He reminds of me a story I heard at childhood
> about the boy who cried wolf. The first two times he pranked but
> the third time when he was right no one listened. Cramer is right
> this time.

Cramer's Stop Trading! So Long, Stress Test (4/9/09)

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:34:06 -0400

one time gift is correct. Wait till July...

On Apr 10 02:54 PM rogerk2 wrote:

> How much of the banks' profits this quarter were due to the windfall
> from AIG using government money to pay off the banks' for their co-party
> swap obligations? The big "profits" the banks are claiming may just
> be a one-off gift from AIG and the Treasury.

Earnings Are Horrible, But It May Not Matter

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:31:45 -0400

-
Who knows. I'm mostly cash, except for a few shorts I just opened, and on which, I'm already underwater. One can never know for sure what's coming next....

On Apr 10 05:14 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Good point. Will someone please help me out here? Q1 corporate earnings
> are expected to drop by 38%, and the market rockets 26%. Is there
> a disconnect here? I know I only got a magna cum laude in math in
> college, not the summa cum laude I deserved. But is it possible that
> the market has gotten ahead of itself? Just a tad? Is the economy
> really going to have the massive bungee cord type recovery that the
> market is discounting here? Could we be setting up for the perfect
> sell in May and go away scenario, like we saw last year? I don’t
> get this. I await your comments in earnest.

Despite Down Day for Stocks, VIX Creeps Lower

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 22:39:24 -0400

The VIX drops when traders become more resolute - it's not only correlated with market prices, but also with trader attitudes. This means that even when traders expect the market to drop, the VIX can still drop too.

You need to think this through carefully.

Bill Black on 'Top Elites': All Are Presently Committing 'Fraud'

Sun, 05 Apr 2009 20:03:45 -0400

Bullseye!

On Apr 05 04:14 PM Roger G McCorkle wrote:

> Great stuff. I watched Moyers Friday night on PBS.
>
> Of course, with my satirical mind:
>
> [Goes into Bank of American
> Me: Hi guys! I'm here to give you some business, I'm interested in
> borrowing $25,000.
>
> BAC: Fine, just fill out this credit application
>
> Me: Not necessary, I have the very best collateral. A thousand shares
> of your stock.
>
> BAC: The stock closed at $7.60. Your collateral is worth $7,600 max.
>
>
> Me: No, I paid over $40 a share in March 08. I have $40k collateral
> now that "mark to market" no longer applies.
>
> BAC: That only applies to OUR assets not YOURS!

Latest Mark-to-Market Rule Changes Are a Travesty

Sun, 05 Apr 2009 19:57:53 -0400

Yikes Reggie!

Be careful with your analogies - no need to get the AIDs lobby against you the same way pro-Big Bank shills are...