sr9web

Alesco Agony Reaches a Crisis Point

In a less hectic market environment, AFN would not be boxed into a corner like this. And, having looked into to it, I am persuaded that the portfolio AFN owns will have considerable value down the road. However, it would seem that this stock is going to scrape bottom for the next 3-6 months minimum. After that, I believe as AFN adjusts its portfolio from it's current composition to a more fruitful mix, this nadir will pass and things will improve. Having said that, one wonders if there will be any more dividends - the recent portfolio changes could send that either way. My guess is there will be only two modest ones of about .10 each this year - but beyond that - who knows? Less than this, and virtually everyone might head to the exists. More than that and cash which could be better used elsewhere is squandered. Based on the current cash position, it would seem that there is no question that AFN will be fine regarding the 2012 convertible debt. That said, some clarity regarding dividends over the next 6 months would help fence sitters like myself evaluate more clearly the merits of holding this name. If I had to guess, I'd say that AFN will make it through this and 6 months from now, will definately have more value per share than is evident today. Whether or not one wants to come along for the ride between now and then, is an open question. For me, this name now a bottom fishing play - and I'm not ready for any more of that quite yet.