Don W's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/223827/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/89353/comments?source=feed#comment-225501 225501
Is it the nature of analysts and economists to be the first on the bandwagon of "the market is getting better now" - ignoring major trends and data that any decently studied person would bring up to deflate their opinions? How many times are we going to hear someone predict "we are close to the bottom", only to hear the latest hard and reality-based figures that show that the slide continues until the markets have contracted to the levels of sustainability that we had been well over-reaching for 5 years (corrected for nominal growth over 5 years, of course). Look at charts and data that shows nominal averaged growth figures, and they show that we have contracted 18% or so and still have another 9% to contract before we are in the region of where we should have been without the out-of-control financial excesses. Add to those figures that we are paying slightly higher than average per disposable income (dollar adjusted, of course) for energy, and we should be below that nominal growth estimate. Now that China is now slowing down as well, and this winter should prove to be the major world market recession clincher. Once we have caught back up to the re-adjusted indexes - about a year out from here (hopefully) - then we might start saying that we are bottoming out. Until then, don't believe any 'expert' who keeps trying to blow happy smoke.]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 17:14:32 -0400
Is it the nature of analysts and economists to be the first on the bandwagon of "the market is getting better now" - ignoring major trends and data that any decently studied person would bring up to deflate their opinions? How many times are we going to hear someone predict "we are close to the bottom", only to hear the latest hard and reality-based figures that show that the slide continues until the markets have contracted to the levels of sustainability that we had been well over-reaching for 5 years (corrected for nominal growth over 5 years, of course). Look at charts and data that shows nominal averaged growth figures, and they show that we have contracted 18% or so and still have another 9% to contract before we are in the region of where we should have been without the out-of-control financial excesses. Add to those figures that we are paying slightly higher than average per disposable income (dollar adjusted, of course) for energy, and we should be below that nominal growth estimate. Now that China is now slowing down as well, and this winter should prove to be the major world market recession clincher. Once we have caught back up to the re-adjusted indexes - about a year out from here (hopefully) - then we might start saying that we are bottoming out. Until then, don't believe any 'expert' who keeps trying to blow happy smoke.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87059/comments?source=feed#comment-214512 214512 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:11:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84192/comments?source=feed#comment-201689 201689
First, in the market, perception *makes* reality. If the pessimistic structure continues, the market will continue to decline. The latest unemployment numbers as well as the estimates for peak oil prices continue to put more numbers into the bases of those assumptions.

Let's not also forget that the remaining subprime mortgages of the 3 year ARMs, as well as the 5 and 7 year ARMs, are still coming due and will continue to throw a higher than expected default into the pipeline until the current approved loan performance numbers make up the majority of the loan balance on the ledgers. Remember, we peaked at over 1.4 million houses sold per month in Q3 and Q4 of 2005 - three times the houses being sold per month in Q1 & Q2 of 2008. The last turnovers of the subprime mortgages will not start to become a smaller fraction of default loans until well into 2010, with no help from the economy to bolster those already on the thin edge of toppling into default. Add that to the inventory and average time on the market running to almost a year before the loss can be appreciably calculated, then figure in the future depreciation of market value (which any even wildly optimistic person knows will continue at least well into 2009, if not 2010), and you find that the base assumptions above will not fit until mid next year. Maybe. It depends on the perception of that time - and the reality that gets generated from there.]]> Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:12:23 -0400
First, in the market, perception *makes* reality. If the pessimistic structure continues, the market will continue to decline. The latest unemployment numbers as well as the estimates for peak oil prices continue to put more numbers into the bases of those assumptions.

Let's not also forget that the remaining subprime mortgages of the 3 year ARMs, as well as the 5 and 7 year ARMs, are still coming due and will continue to throw a higher than expected default into the pipeline until the current approved loan performance numbers make up the majority of the loan balance on the ledgers. Remember, we peaked at over 1.4 million houses sold per month in Q3 and Q4 of 2005 - three times the houses being sold per month in Q1 & Q2 of 2008. The last turnovers of the subprime mortgages will not start to become a smaller fraction of default loans until well into 2010, with no help from the economy to bolster those already on the thin edge of toppling into default. Add that to the inventory and average time on the market running to almost a year before the loss can be appreciably calculated, then figure in the future depreciation of market value (which any even wildly optimistic person knows will continue at least well into 2009, if not 2010), and you find that the base assumptions above will not fit until mid next year. Maybe. It depends on the perception of that time - and the reality that gets generated from there.]]>