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  • 2015 Will Be Apple's Year: Raising Price Target To $174 [View article]
    I like Apple. Apple the company has good some really good stuff coming into this year, some challenges to be sure, but nothing that's existential. If they keep executing they're going to keep doing well. I'm not sure that I can identify a company that has been consistently been producing good, profitable tech products.

    Apple's investors and the chattering public on the other hand, them I could do without. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 50% swoon in the stock for no apparent reason other than *boo*. Or 2Q is less than 1Q, or holy crap, ipod sales are down _AGAIN_.
    Dec 31, 2014. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's October Event: Competing On Quality And Price [View article]
    I think NeXT was a good acquisition as well.
    Oct 22, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Bear's Wonderful Misadventure Analyzing Apple's Prospects [View article]
    'Reputable' Journals get their money by charging outsized fees to subscribers (large institutions) and relying on free labor for papers and peer review. It's a great racket if you can get it.

    Less reputable journals get their money by charging the authors and dispensing with the peer review part.

    Grants don't enter into it.
    Oct 21, 2014. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Bear's Wonderful Misadventure Analyzing Apple's Prospects [View article]
    Samsung's problem is really that there's no point in the stack where they're the best. Their phones are not that different than generic android. They don't write their OS. They don't have the serverside services. The software they do customize is iffy.

    If someone comes along with a faster/cheaper android slab, there's nothing to stop customers from jumping ship.
    Oct 20, 2014. 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's October Event: Competing On Quality And Price [View article]
    iPad channel inventory is down by 500k items over last quarter due to drawdown for the new ipads out in the new quarter. iPad channel inventory remains in the normal range (4-6 weeks, iirc).

    So, the thesis that the iPad Mini 1 is still being sold because of inventory overstock would be rejected.
    Oct 20, 2014. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's October Event: Competing On Quality And Price [View article]
    Well, if there's really unsold inventory, it should show up in the SEC filings on monday. I would bet money that they're managing supply so that they have normal channel inventory, being ~6 weeks or so. That would be an interesting question for an analyst to ask though.

    If they really wanted to get rid of the inventory, it would be dumped through the refurb program at a discount and it wouldn't be on the front page as the low cost item.

    Despite now having ipads from every $50-100 from $250 to 800, I think the strategy of selling the original Mini is going to bite them in the ass. Developers are trying to push the edge of what's possible on the new stuff, so the older machines just aren't going to get the support. From personal experience, the ipad2 is getting long in the tooth. I'm not sure I'm going to push mine to 8.x.

    I'll also point out that the ipad3 and the Mini Retina are completely different machines. The iPad2 and original Mini are essentially the same, as are the Air and Mini Retina/2.
    Oct 17, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Will Foil Intel's Mobile Ambitions [View article]
    I'd be surprised if the iPad and the MacBook Air merge. (I've got both. Frankly, I've been using the MBA a lot more lately than the iPads, but that's a dev thing.)

    What's far more likely is that the lines between the MBA and the MacBook Pro blur significantly. The differences between the two lines are essentially power, size and weight, all of which are converging rapidly. Look back 5 years, and the (current) MBP is amazingly slim and has an incredible battery life. Compare to the MBA, and you see about the same increment (even thinner, even longer life).

    I could see the MacBook lines converging into (essentially) Small (~12"), Medium(~13+") and Large(~15"), with some baseline config and build-to-order options. My guess is that there would be a price point everywhere from <$1000 to $2500 every $100 or so, with increasing amounts of memory, storage and processor.

    This could happen as soon as next week. I think that they're invested in the Air brand, so I don't think that they'll totally drop it. But I would bet that what we'll see after next week is:

    * No non-retina MBP. It's 2 generations behind already, it's going to be dropped.
    * One new MBA, 12" retina. ~9hr battery, no thinner than current, decent but not screamingly fast processor. They've got to nail the screen and the battery life, everything else is going to be tweaked to make those work.
    * 13 and 15 MBP, a little thicker, closer to 9hr battery, faster procs.
    * Probably still sell the Early 2014 air in one size, as the low price entry ($800). This will go away in a year.
    Oct 10, 2014. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Will Foil Intel's Mobile Ambitions [View article]
    I don't even think that battery life is a huge issue on the Macs. They've got a lot more volume for battery and the screens + gpu take a larger percentage than on a tablet. My Air gets ridiculous battery life -- it's to the point where I simply don't worry about it.
    Oct 9, 2014. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Will Foil Intel's Mobile Ambitions [View article]
    I'll go out on a limb here, but Apple will _never_ again intentionally ship something where dual boot is a planned use case. (the last time it happened was in the early (pre 10.4) years of OSX. Also note, boot camp isn't really part of this, as it's not Apple's thing. I mean apple doing both halves). It's totally counter to the way they've been moving over the last 10 years. Just works, instant on, power nap, month long sleep battery life. If at all possible, I think Apple would rather remove the concept of booting.

    Apple is all about figuring out the one thing that they want to do with each product, and eliminating all distraction and cruft from it. Sometimes this works better than others.
    Oct 9, 2014. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Rated Juicy: Why Would Anyone Be Bearish Into The iPhone 6 Launch? [View article]
    I can see them releasing any and all of those items. I'd say that the Mini and the MBP are probably the least likely (depending on Intel getting their chips in order), and I wouldn't mind seeing the iWatch put off until it's fully baked to keep the masses distracted and Samsung in the dark.

    I had $98 as my target for reducing my overweight in APPL, haven't pulled the trigger yet on that. But while I'm pretty decent about buying low, I'm really bad about selling high. I'm more a hold and hold and hold sort of person.
    Aug 20, 2014. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Breathe Deeply, Embrace Tim Cook And Hold Until $120 [View article]
    My rule #1 is don't buy near a 52 week high. Rule #2 is don't sell at a 52 week low. I'll probably take some profits when all the analysts finally agree that Apple is a buy.

    My take on things: Apple is still solid. iWatch is a distraction, at least from the financial side of things. It might be as big as the iPod, but meh, I just can't get excited about the rumors. (this from someone who typically wants one of everything that Apple makes, and can justify maybe 1/year). On the other hand, I think that we're seeing the software basis for the 3rd party iWatch in the extensions that are showing up for iOS8.

    AppleTV, more interesting. More competition, but ultimately I think there's a bigger market there, especially if it's a full fledged iOS computer with app store access and bluetooth controllers.

    I wish they'd do the software to allow a airport base station + disk to act as an iTunes source for all the AppleTV/AirportExpresses in the house, to be controlled by the iOS remote app. I wish there was a iPod touch that had data networking. (seriously, who uses voice?)
    Jul 9, 2014. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is In My Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    So, StockBet,

    Do you swing for the fences on every trade? Or do you make a little here, make a little there, and at the end of the year end up well ahead. And the next year, and the next year.

    You do know that if you manage to add 20% value to a product every year, you get something twice as good about every 4 years.

    And Apple's doing that, every year. Sometimes even more than that. Try using an iOS5 device sometime. Then try iOS7. That's a huge leap in just 2 years.
    Jun 11, 2014. 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digesting WWDC: Cloudy [View article]
    Well, the language book is out, as is the compiler. But what's not clear is everywhere it helps and what the pain points are yet. That's only going to come with experience. In a year or so, we'll know. Of course, the language is explictily in flux until this fall, so pain points may change quickly.

    WWDC really isn't an investor focused conference -- other than happy developers are a good thing for investors. What I've been hearing from developers has generally been good, that they've gotten a lot of the things that they've been wanting for a while. And a few things that they weren't expecting.

    What I haven't heard is if iCloud Core Data is fixed, or if that has been subsumed into CloudKit, or what.
    Jun 6, 2014. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digesting WWDC: Cloudy [View article]
    Go is a different animal than Swift.

    * Swift is essentially a new language on top of the same runtime with the same platform apis as Objective C -- similar to the family of languages that run on the JVM or the .NET runtime. But, in this case, it's on LLVM and Cocoa/OSX.
    * Go is a new systems language has it's own runtime/abi. It can call out to C libraries, but there's also a lot of reimplementing things in golang.
    * I'm not aware of Go code actually running on Android, and IIRC, it still had issues on 32 bit x86, let alone ARM.

    * Go's big thing is safe concurrency and simple packaging.
    * Swift's big thing is ... I'm not actually sure yet. Less cruft, boilerplate, more safety guarantees and quicker development.
    Jun 6, 2014. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Laptop Opportunity [View article]
    Refurbs start at 15% off. From Apple, they're pretty much indistinguishable from new. (e.g., 11.6"air, 4/128 for $849 on the site right now)
    Apr 17, 2014. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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