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Will SPY Reach 2002 Levels?

A very well-written, sobering article. Based on the fundamentals, one would think that we will see a return to 2002 valuations on the S&P 500. The last decade of so-called "returns" was a complete fraud, based on greed, arrogance, and widespread stupidity on the part of corporations, citizens, and regulators alike.

If anything, the massive credit losses predicted by Roubini are just getting started, and despite the feeble attempts from the powers that be to prop up the market, we will ultimately have to go lower before we can recover. It's a difficult environment, but prudent and cautious investors can still make money. However, there are millions of people who will now suffer due to the failure of a few. I'm surprised they aren't demanding public executions of those responsible yet. The anger and fear are palpable.

Michael Moore, Capitalist

Huh?

What exactly does this have to do with the markets, exactly?

Flash Player: Apple's Blind Spot?

I disagree with you completely, Fred - Flash is an abomination that deserves to be snubbed by Apple. It's bloated, proprietary, and full of exploitable security flaws that put the end user at risk.

But just like PDF, I fear it is a standard that will endure despite its obvious failings. What a mess.

How Weyerhaeuser's Results Reflect on Timber REITs

But couldn't the timber REITs simply cut back on logging if the prices of lumber keep dropping? There's essentially no risk to cutting back, because biological growth will continue regardless of the market conditions. And this biological growth will ultimately lead to a higher supply of timber that the companies can utilize when prices return to normal levels.

Sure, the book value of the trees may decrease, but if there's no risk to letting them continue growing, who cares?

Can Kindle 2 Ignite Demand from Battered Consumers?

The Sony Reader is actually a much better-designed version of the Kindle - if it had wireless capability and a more aggressive marketing campaign behind it, the Reader could potentially compete with the Kindle for dominance of the E-book reader category.

The Reader is sleeker, has a nicer E-Ink screen, and can read .doc files and PDFs natively. Amazon charges you money to convert these files to work with the Kindle - ridiculous.

But this is the problem with Sony - they design some great products, but their lack of marketing and steep entry prices often prevent their devices from taking off. I see the Kindle increasing its market share, which is another case of the inferior product winning out.

Google Latitude: Let Your Friends Know Where You Are

Great, so now Google can know that I'm taking a dump in stall three of a Des Moines McDonalds.

I second the sentiment - creepy.

Let the Peter Schiff Backlash Begin

This article is premature - Schiff has not been proven wrong yet. He may not have had the perfect timing, but nobody does. Treasuries are going to get killed - Schiff will be right. The massive amounts of money being pumped into the system by the government will probably cause inflation, and Schiff will likely be right. If inflation happens, investors will look to gold and hard assets for protection, and Schiff could well be right. If the US empire begins to fade and the US reverts to the OECD mean for GDP growth while the emerging markets surge, Schiff's decoupling thesis could possibly be right.

It reminds me of the Chinese official in the 1970s who was asked about the impact of the French Revolution some two centuries prior. His response? "It's too soon to tell."

I don't worship at the altar of Schiff or Roubini, but the fact that they have been bearish since the early 2000s is NOT a knock against them - the last decade of so-called "growth" has been a debt, corruption and stupidity fueled sham, and this defunct edifice has finally met reality. They have been proven right.

Energy Infrastructure MLPs: Among the Very Best High Dividend Stocks

Cliff,

Good article! However, I think you should mention the fact that investors in most MLPs have to fill out a K-1 form on their tax return. In some cases, you may be required to pay additional taxes in each state where the MLP operates. Nevertheless, I think MLPs are great, and if it weren't for the complex tax issues, they'd be nearly perfect.

Banks: Nationalize, Cleanse and Get It Over With

Tom,

I agree - nationalization is the simplest, most cost-effective solution. Instead of giving money to banks to waste, just take them over, fire management, cut the dividend, and wipe out the common shareholders. They may complain, but if you hold the common, that's the risk you take. I would just invalidate the toxic derivatives rather than trying to save them. It may cause pain in the short term but it will be cheaper and easier in the long run.

Unfortunately, I don't see it as being politically feasible, because as soon as you mention the "N word" you invite a whole host of rabid fools who start screeching about socialism. Nevermind the fact that the banks will eventually be privatized again after they're fixed!

Will There Be an Obama Bounce?

Kathy,

Interesting analysis, but I don't think we can draw any conclusions about Inauguration Day, because we don't have enough data points yet. While 12 out of 16 down days appears to be interesting, I don't think that it's statistically significant. At this point, it's 50-50.

JPMorgan: Expect Fed to Cut to 0% in January

Dear God, I can't even bear to think of the hyperinflation that's going to show up once we get out of this mess. A ZIRP, in addition to the hundreds of billions that have already been squandered and the billions more that will be wasted?

Say hello to the Weimar Dollar. And to think, we used laugh at Zimbabwean currency problems. Maybe Mugabe will be the one with the last laugh...

Was That a Bottom? Should We Even Care?

This is how you build lasting wealth - not by day trading or getting the "hot stock tip" (and buying in at the top), but through simple, boring techniques that most people have heard of but few actually practice.

There's a reason Buffet bet big on index funds against the flashy hedge fund managers - index funds work, and they are cost effective. The number one rule of investing is to keep costs low - that will ultimately determine more over the long run than anything else.

Middle East Proving To Be Hotspot for ETFs

TRAMX would be a good fund if it weren't for the horrendous expense ratio. If they lower it down from the ridiculous 1.95%, then I'll consider buying.

Getting Out of Today's Bear Market

Right now, we're being punished for the collective stupidity of Alan Greenspan, the big banks, and the average American consumer. Before Bernanke took over the Fed tried to avoid recession by pumping the economy full of cheap money.

American consumers were too dumb to realize the simple fact: you can't spend more than you make over a long period of time and come out ahead. And as many homeowners found out, those ARMs they took out in 2002 and 2003 are beating the crap out of them now.

Our economy is in bad shape - consumers are 70% of it, and they're getting hammered. When you have a currency that's barely worth the paper it's printed on and a country that doesn't manufacture anything anymore, it's little wonder why a financial services collapse will obliterate the market.

I can see oil at $165 by year end and the S&P at 850 by February. There are still millions of foreclosures to come.

A Look at New Asset Allocation and Hedged Equity ETFs

I own the JFT ETN - it's down a little right now, but the performance has been great and I get access to a basic hedge fund strategy without having to do anything myself.

There's even an ETF for private equity now - I think it's PSP. Worth a look if you're in to hedge-fund-like strategies.