scimitar's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/223889/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/120851-will-spy-reach-2002-levels?source=feed#comment-391601 391601
If anything, the massive credit losses predicted by Roubini are just getting started, and despite the feeble attempts from the powers that be to prop up the market, we will ultimately have to go lower before we can recover. It's a difficult environment, but prudent and cautious investors can still make money. However, there are millions of people who will now suffer due to the failure of a few. I'm surprised they aren't demanding public executions of those responsible yet. The anger and fear are palpable. ]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 06:11:36 -0500
If anything, the massive credit losses predicted by Roubini are just getting started, and despite the feeble attempts from the powers that be to prop up the market, we will ultimately have to go lower before we can recover. It's a difficult environment, but prudent and cautious investors can still make money. However, there are millions of people who will now suffer due to the failure of a few. I'm surprised they aren't demanding public executions of those responsible yet. The anger and fear are palpable. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120817-michael-moore-capitalist?source=feed#comment-391543 391543
What exactly does this have to do with the markets, exactly?]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 02:32:07 -0500
What exactly does this have to do with the markets, exactly?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120819-flash-player-apple-s-blind-spot?source=feed#comment-391541 391541
But just like PDF, I fear it is a standard that will endure despite its obvious failings. What a mess.]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 02:28:05 -0500
But just like PDF, I fear it is a standard that will endure despite its obvious failings. What a mess.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120054-how-weyerhaeuser-s-results-reflect-on-timber-reits?source=feed#comment-385073 385073
Sure, the book value of the trees may decrease, but if there's no risk to letting them continue growing, who cares?]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 02:03:30 -0500
Sure, the book value of the trees may decrease, but if there's no risk to letting them continue growing, who cares?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119448-can-kindle-2-ignite-demand-from-battered-consumers?source=feed#comment-381829 381829
The Reader is sleeker, has a nicer E-Ink screen, and can read .doc files and PDFs natively. Amazon charges you money to convert these files to work with the Kindle - ridiculous.

But this is the problem with Sony - they design some great products, but their lack of marketing and steep entry prices often prevent their devices from taking off. I see the Kindle increasing its market share, which is another case of the inferior product winning out. ]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 22:28:31 -0500
The Reader is sleeker, has a nicer E-Ink screen, and can read .doc files and PDFs natively. Amazon charges you money to convert these files to work with the Kindle - ridiculous.

But this is the problem with Sony - they design some great products, but their lack of marketing and steep entry prices often prevent their devices from taking off. I see the Kindle increasing its market share, which is another case of the inferior product winning out. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118452-google-latitude-let-your-friends-know-where-you-are?source=feed#comment-376284 376284
I second the sentiment - creepy. ]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 21:21:29 -0500
I second the sentiment - creepy. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116645-let-the-peter-schiff-backlash-begin?source=feed#comment-367260 367260
It reminds me of the Chinese official in the 1970s who was asked about the impact of the French Revolution some two centuries prior. His response? "It's too soon to tell."

I don't worship at the altar of Schiff or Roubini, but the fact that they have been bearish since the early 2000s is NOT a knock against them - the last decade of so-called "growth" has been a debt, corruption and stupidity fueled sham, and this defunct edifice has finally met reality. They have been proven right.

]]> Tue, 27 Jan 2009 04:13:13 -0500
It reminds me of the Chinese official in the 1970s who was asked about the impact of the French Revolution some two centuries prior. His response? "It's too soon to tell."

I don't worship at the altar of Schiff or Roubini, but the fact that they have been bearish since the early 2000s is NOT a knock against them - the last decade of so-called "growth" has been a debt, corruption and stupidity fueled sham, and this defunct edifice has finally met reality. They have been proven right.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116156-energy-infrastructure-mlps-among-the-very-best-high-dividend-stocks?source=feed#comment-363836 363836
Good article! However, I think you should mention the fact that investors in most MLPs have to fill out a K-1 form on their tax return. In some cases, you may be required to pay additional taxes in each state where the MLP operates. Nevertheless, I think MLPs are great, and if it weren't for the complex tax issues, they'd be nearly perfect. ]]> Fri, 23 Jan 2009 07:03:37 -0500
Good article! However, I think you should mention the fact that investors in most MLPs have to fill out a K-1 form on their tax return. In some cases, you may be required to pay additional taxes in each state where the MLP operates. Nevertheless, I think MLPs are great, and if it weren't for the complex tax issues, they'd be nearly perfect. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115351-banks-nationalize-cleanse-and-get-it-over-with?source=feed#comment-360207 360207
I agree - nationalization is the simplest, most cost-effective solution. Instead of giving money to banks to waste, just take them over, fire management, cut the dividend, and wipe out the common shareholders. They may complain, but if you hold the common, that's the risk you take. I would just invalidate the toxic derivatives rather than trying to save them. It may cause pain in the short term but it will be cheaper and easier in the long run.

Unfortunately, I don't see it as being politically feasible, because as soon as you mention the "N word" you invite a whole host of rabid fools who start screeching about socialism. Nevermind the fact that the banks will eventually be privatized again after they're fixed! ]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:28:14 -0500
I agree - nationalization is the simplest, most cost-effective solution. Instead of giving money to banks to waste, just take them over, fire management, cut the dividend, and wipe out the common shareholders. They may complain, but if you hold the common, that's the risk you take. I would just invalidate the toxic derivatives rather than trying to save them. It may cause pain in the short term but it will be cheaper and easier in the long run.

Unfortunately, I don't see it as being politically feasible, because as soon as you mention the "N word" you invite a whole host of rabid fools who start screeching about socialism. Nevermind the fact that the banks will eventually be privatized again after they're fixed! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115369-will-there-be-an-obama-bounce?source=feed#comment-360196 360196
Interesting analysis, but I don't think we can draw any conclusions about Inauguration Day, because we don't have enough data points yet. While 12 out of 16 down days appears to be interesting, I don't think that it's statistically significant. At this point, it's 50-50.]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:15:00 -0500
Interesting analysis, but I don't think we can draw any conclusions about Inauguration Day, because we don't have enough data points yet. While 12 out of 16 down days appears to be interesting, I don't think that it's statistically significant. At this point, it's 50-50.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106981-jpmorgan-expect-fed-to-cut-to-0-in-january?source=feed#comment-310736 310736
Say hello to the Weimar Dollar. And to think, we used laugh at Zimbabwean currency problems. Maybe Mugabe will be the one with the last laugh...]]> Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:46:45 -0500
Say hello to the Weimar Dollar. And to think, we used laugh at Zimbabwean currency problems. Maybe Mugabe will be the one with the last laugh...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85479-was-that-a-bottom-should-we-even-care?source=feed#comment-207861 207861
There's a reason Buffet bet big on index funds against the flashy hedge fund managers - index funds work, and they are cost effective. The number one rule of investing is to keep costs low - that will ultimately determine more over the long run than anything else.]]> Thu, 17 Jul 2008 12:30:47 -0400
There's a reason Buffet bet big on index funds against the flashy hedge fund managers - index funds work, and they are cost effective. The number one rule of investing is to keep costs low - that will ultimately determine more over the long run than anything else.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85343-middle-east-proving-to-be-hotspot-for-etfs?source=feed#comment-207390 207390 Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:46:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84580-getting-out-of-today-s-bear-market?source=feed#comment-202973 202973
American consumers were too dumb to realize the simple fact: you can't spend more than you make over a long period of time and come out ahead. And as many homeowners found out, those ARMs they took out in 2002 and 2003 are beating the crap out of them now.

Our economy is in bad shape - consumers are 70% of it, and they're getting hammered. When you have a currency that's barely worth the paper it's printed on and a country that doesn't manufacture anything anymore, it's little wonder why a financial services collapse will obliterate the market.

I can see oil at $165 by year end and the S&P at 850 by February. There are still millions of foreclosures to come.]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:49:05 -0400
American consumers were too dumb to realize the simple fact: you can't spend more than you make over a long period of time and come out ahead. And as many homeowners found out, those ARMs they took out in 2002 and 2003 are beating the crap out of them now.

Our economy is in bad shape - consumers are 70% of it, and they're getting hammered. When you have a currency that's barely worth the paper it's printed on and a country that doesn't manufacture anything anymore, it's little wonder why a financial services collapse will obliterate the market.

I can see oil at $165 by year end and the S&P at 850 by February. There are still millions of foreclosures to come.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84611-a-look-at-new-asset-allocation-and-hedged-equity-etfs?source=feed#comment-202900 202900
There's even an ETF for private equity now - I think it's PSP. Worth a look if you're in to hedge-fund-like strategies.]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:50:42 -0400
There's even an ETF for private equity now - I think it's PSP. Worth a look if you're in to hedge-fund-like strategies.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84484-pessimism-and-doom-our-national-pastime-flashback-to-the-70s?source=feed#comment-202528 202528
But let's just assume your contentions are correct. Look closely at your own chat - look where unemployment was in 1973. It was fairly close to what it is today. 1973, as we are all aware, was the beginning of nearly a decade of stagflation and economic pain. When the Fed raises rates, as it will eventually be forced to do, we'll probably see unemployment skyrocket again. Think Volcker in the early 80s. There's going to be pain, and I fail to see why the individual investor should be bullish on the US economy as a whole. About the only things worth being long in are health care and energy. ]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:35:26 -0400
But let's just assume your contentions are correct. Look closely at your own chat - look where unemployment was in 1973. It was fairly close to what it is today. 1973, as we are all aware, was the beginning of nearly a decade of stagflation and economic pain. When the Fed raises rates, as it will eventually be forced to do, we'll probably see unemployment skyrocket again. Think Volcker in the early 80s. There's going to be pain, and I fail to see why the individual investor should be bullish on the US economy as a whole. About the only things worth being long in are health care and energy. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84481-chart-of-the-day-anatomy-of-a-bear-market?source=feed#comment-202522 202522
At least in the 1970s you could get around 13% in a Fidelity money market. Back then, people actually tried this amazing & revolutionary concept: you know - saving money! Lately, we've just preferred to spend 1.5 times what we make and incur 30.99% APR, and when that fails take out huge HELOCs which then become part of CDOs rated AAA.

We've tried to stave off a natural correction in our economy for so long with cheap money that this correction is going to be much more painful than it ever would have if we'd tightened up liquidity in the first place! But don't tell Alan Greenspan.]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:28:10 -0400
At least in the 1970s you could get around 13% in a Fidelity money market. Back then, people actually tried this amazing & revolutionary concept: you know - saving money! Lately, we've just preferred to spend 1.5 times what we make and incur 30.99% APR, and when that fails take out huge HELOCs which then become part of CDOs rated AAA.

We've tried to stave off a natural correction in our economy for so long with cheap money that this correction is going to be much more painful than it ever would have if we'd tightened up liquidity in the first place! But don't tell Alan Greenspan.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84405-ubs-can-it-get-any-worse?source=feed#comment-202417 202417
I have to laugh at the people who were stupid enough to put their assets in UBS or even Credit Suisse, though. What kind of moron fails to recognize that the Swiss banks with international exposure are also the easiest targets for the IRS? If these wealthy clients had anything other than rocks for brains, they would have gone to a local Swiss bank, plunked down $100k and gotten a numbered account to ensure a modicum of security.

The IRS is going to have a field day now with the UBS clients, and I'm happy for them. There's nothing better than increasing government revenue off the back of worthless tax cheats.]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:10:54 -0400
I have to laugh at the people who were stupid enough to put their assets in UBS or even Credit Suisse, though. What kind of moron fails to recognize that the Swiss banks with international exposure are also the easiest targets for the IRS? If these wealthy clients had anything other than rocks for brains, they would have gone to a local Swiss bank, plunked down $100k and gotten a numbered account to ensure a modicum of security.

The IRS is going to have a field day now with the UBS clients, and I'm happy for them. There's nothing better than increasing government revenue off the back of worthless tax cheats.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84299-how-far-could-oil-prices-fall?source=feed#comment-201822 201822
While speculators share part of the blame for the run-up in prices, it's an exceptionally small part. The supply of light sweet crude just simply isn't what it used to be - we're resorting to heavier, dirtier oil that is costlier to refine.

What I think has done the most damage is our idiotic Federal Reserve - they've weakened the dollar to the breaking point. Greenspan flooded the economy with cheap money for years to try and stave off a recession. This was monumentally stupid - corrections are a necessary part of the economic cycle, and now we're in a situation where we are worse off than if the Fed had just let a drop happen. I wish they'd just raise interest rates already and quit being cowards. The economy is already messed up, and a rate hike would be a short-term pain that would ultimately end up making us better off. But Bernanke will never do it. The 2% will stay the same at the next meeting.

At this point, I'm more worried about a situation where we have 10 years of pain like Japan did than a market crash. I would much rather see a quick crash and ensuing recovery than the prolonged beating we're taking every day right now.

I think oil will continue to go up past $150 by the end of August.]]> Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:22:16 -0400
While speculators share part of the blame for the run-up in prices, it's an exceptionally small part. The supply of light sweet crude just simply isn't what it used to be - we're resorting to heavier, dirtier oil that is costlier to refine.

What I think has done the most damage is our idiotic Federal Reserve - they've weakened the dollar to the breaking point. Greenspan flooded the economy with cheap money for years to try and stave off a recession. This was monumentally stupid - corrections are a necessary part of the economic cycle, and now we're in a situation where we are worse off than if the Fed had just let a drop happen. I wish they'd just raise interest rates already and quit being cowards. The economy is already messed up, and a rate hike would be a short-term pain that would ultimately end up making us better off. But Bernanke will never do it. The 2% will stay the same at the next meeting.

At this point, I'm more worried about a situation where we have 10 years of pain like Japan did than a market crash. I would much rather see a quick crash and ensuing recovery than the prolonged beating we're taking every day right now.

I think oil will continue to go up past $150 by the end of August.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84250-why-140-barrel-crude-is-unsustainable?source=feed#comment-201816 201816
Saudi Arabia will peak soon if they haven't already, and the era of abundant light sweet crude will be over for good. Russia has already overtaken the Saudis as the world's number one producer. Once climate change starts to melt that Siberian permafrost and the Arctic Ocean is free of ice for half the year, Russia will become a superpower again. Gazprom already supplies 25% of Europe's gas, its subsidiary Gazprom Neft is sitting on loads of oil, and the company has close ties to the Russian government (Dimitri Medvedev used to be the head of Gazprom).

The US may reduce its demand, but it will be too little, too late. The time to get serious about conservation and a sound dollar policy was years ago, and we now have to live with the consequences of Alan Greenspan's liquidity idiocy. Furthermore, any reductions in US demand will be offset by China and India, which are both unfortunately following in the footsteps of our failed transportation policies and adding thousands of gas-guzzling cars to their roads every day. Gas prices are going to stay high, too - a new refinery is scheduled to be built in South Dakota, but it's the first one in 40 years. Again, too little, too late.

Crude oil is going to be harder to find, it's going to continue to be in the hands of hostile foreign governments (with a resurgent, nationalistic Russia at the forefront), and light sweet crude is going to be replaced by heavier, dirtier stuff.

Oil has nowhere to go but up. ]]> Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:04:54 -0400
Saudi Arabia will peak soon if they haven't already, and the era of abundant light sweet crude will be over for good. Russia has already overtaken the Saudis as the world's number one producer. Once climate change starts to melt that Siberian permafrost and the Arctic Ocean is free of ice for half the year, Russia will become a superpower again. Gazprom already supplies 25% of Europe's gas, its subsidiary Gazprom Neft is sitting on loads of oil, and the company has close ties to the Russian government (Dimitri Medvedev used to be the head of Gazprom).

The US may reduce its demand, but it will be too little, too late. The time to get serious about conservation and a sound dollar policy was years ago, and we now have to live with the consequences of Alan Greenspan's liquidity idiocy. Furthermore, any reductions in US demand will be offset by China and India, which are both unfortunately following in the footsteps of our failed transportation policies and adding thousands of gas-guzzling cars to their roads every day. Gas prices are going to stay high, too - a new refinery is scheduled to be built in South Dakota, but it's the first one in 40 years. Again, too little, too late.

Crude oil is going to be harder to find, it's going to continue to be in the hands of hostile foreign governments (with a resurgent, nationalistic Russia at the forefront), and light sweet crude is going to be replaced by heavier, dirtier stuff.

Oil has nowhere to go but up. ]]>