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Will SPY Reach 2002 Levels?

A very well-written, sobering article. Based on the fundamentals, one would think that we will see a return to 2002 valuations on the S&P 500. The last decade of so-called "returns" was a complete fraud, based on greed, arrogance, and widespread stupidity on the part of corporations, citizens, and regulators alike.

If anything, the massive credit losses predicted by Roubini are just getting started, and despite the feeble attempts from the powers that be to prop up the market, we will ultimately have to go lower before we can recover. It's a difficult environment, but prudent and cautious investors can still make money. However, there are millions of people who will now suffer due to the failure of a few. I'm surprised they aren't demanding public executions of those responsible yet. The anger and fear are palpable.

Let the Peter Schiff Backlash Begin

This article is premature - Schiff has not been proven wrong yet. He may not have had the perfect timing, but nobody does. Treasuries are going to get killed - Schiff will be right. The massive amounts of money being pumped into the system by the government will probably cause inflation, and Schiff will likely be right. If inflation happens, investors will look to gold and hard assets for protection, and Schiff could well be right. If the US empire begins to fade and the US reverts to the OECD mean for GDP growth while the emerging markets surge, Schiff's decoupling thesis could possibly be right.

It reminds me of the Chinese official in the 1970s who was asked about the impact of the French Revolution some two centuries prior. His response? "It's too soon to tell."

I don't worship at the altar of Schiff or Roubini, but the fact that they have been bearish since the early 2000s is NOT a knock against them - the last decade of so-called "growth" has been a debt, corruption and stupidity fueled sham, and this defunct edifice has finally met reality. They have been proven right.

Will There Be an Obama Bounce?

Kathy,

Interesting analysis, but I don't think we can draw any conclusions about Inauguration Day, because we don't have enough data points yet. While 12 out of 16 down days appears to be interesting, I don't think that it's statistically significant. At this point, it's 50-50.

Was That a Bottom? Should We Even Care?

This is how you build lasting wealth - not by day trading or getting the "hot stock tip" (and buying in at the top), but through simple, boring techniques that most people have heard of but few actually practice.

There's a reason Buffet bet big on index funds against the flashy hedge fund managers - index funds work, and they are cost effective. The number one rule of investing is to keep costs low - that will ultimately determine more over the long run than anything else.