Sakata's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/223943/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175012-gold-bears-stop-sector-from-overheating?source=feed#comment-775636 775636 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:58:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161136-rare-earth-metals-how-to-invest?source=feed#comment-674729 674729

On Sep 13 02:31 PM Gareth Hatch wrote:

> Sakata - do a search at SeekingAlpha.com and at ResourceInvestor.com
> for articles by Jack Lifton on this subject. Also check out RareMetalBlog.com
> .]]> Sun, 13 Sep 2009 15:42:15 -0400

On Sep 13 02:31 PM Gareth Hatch wrote:

> Sakata - do a search at SeekingAlpha.com and at ResourceInvestor.com
> for articles by Jack Lifton on this subject. Also check out RareMetalBlog.com
> .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161136-rare-earth-metals-how-to-invest?source=feed#comment-674466 674466 Sun, 13 Sep 2009 12:24:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160266-short-squeeze-could-propel-silver-prices-higher?source=feed#comment-665050 665050
"I am not convinced that gold will outperform silver. The gold-to-silver ratio has been steadily declining and is now below 65. In another thread recently I said that I thought it would reach 60 by the time gold hit $1000 again. That would give a value of $16.67 for silver. I also said I expect it to drop to 50 by the time gold hits $1250, for a silver value of $25."
(seekingalpha.com/user/...)

Seems like I was pretty much on target (currently the ratio is about 61). I am not concerned about any short term trends or resistance. I firmly believe that gold will be $1250 by the end of the year and that the ratio by then will be around 50. Short terms concerned about squeezes or resistance are for speculators, not investors.]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 10:35:12 -0400
"I am not convinced that gold will outperform silver. The gold-to-silver ratio has been steadily declining and is now below 65. In another thread recently I said that I thought it would reach 60 by the time gold hit $1000 again. That would give a value of $16.67 for silver. I also said I expect it to drop to 50 by the time gold hits $1250, for a silver value of $25."
(seekingalpha.com/user/...)

Seems like I was pretty much on target (currently the ratio is about 61). I am not concerned about any short term trends or resistance. I firmly believe that gold will be $1250 by the end of the year and that the ratio by then will be around 50. Short terms concerned about squeezes or resistance are for speculators, not investors.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147812-will-pickens-scrapped-project-slow-wind-energy-momentum?source=feed#comment-580340 580340 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:13:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141044-will-1-000-gold-signal-a-rush-to-buy-juniors?source=feed#comment-531759 531759

On Jun 04 01:35 AM optionsgirl wrote:

> Sakata- why don't you write an article about it? I bet a lot of people
> would want to read it!]]> Thu, 04 Jun 2009 10:55:17 -0400

On Jun 04 01:35 AM optionsgirl wrote:

> Sakata- why don't you write an article about it? I bet a lot of people
> would want to read it!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141044-will-1-000-gold-signal-a-rush-to-buy-juniors?source=feed#comment-531241 531241
Bottom line, if there is no ETF create your own simulation.


On Jun 03 06:58 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> There ought to be an ETF for some juniors (and even also for some
> junior juniors), just as there is for the seniors. (If there is,
> and I'm unaware of it, pipe up!)]]> Thu, 04 Jun 2009 00:04:36 -0400
Bottom line, if there is no ETF create your own simulation.


On Jun 03 06:58 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> There ought to be an ETF for some juniors (and even also for some
> junior juniors), just as there is for the seniors. (If there is,
> and I'm unaware of it, pipe up!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138725-gold-investors-get-bullish-news-but-shouldn-t-celebrate-yet?source=feed#comment-512280 512280
Scrap sales have increased and the people selling the scrap are getting a fraction of the real value because they no longer know what the value of gold is. The people who are willing to sell for a pittance are not the people who are going to seek out the price if they are not told it.

I am suspicious that one reason scrap sales are up is because people don't know the real value. They don't know the real value because the news media doesn't tell them. The media doesn't tell them because it is all owned by bid conglomerates with vested interest in suppressing the price.

Am I being realistic? I don't know, but I wouldn't bet against this scenario.]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 23:07:52 -0400
Scrap sales have increased and the people selling the scrap are getting a fraction of the real value because they no longer know what the value of gold is. The people who are willing to sell for a pittance are not the people who are going to seek out the price if they are not told it.

I am suspicious that one reason scrap sales are up is because people don't know the real value. They don't know the real value because the news media doesn't tell them. The media doesn't tell them because it is all owned by bid conglomerates with vested interest in suppressing the price.

Am I being realistic? I don't know, but I wouldn't bet against this scenario.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135738-gata-u-s-government-suppressing-gold-price?source=feed#comment-506773 506773 GATA) that elements in the US government are suppressing the gold price through financial proxies in order to maintain faith in the dollar and US government debt. "

Did anyone notice that it is not just gold that is being suppressed? GATA itself is. Check out this page: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/..., which documents the deletion of the wikipedia page on GATA.]]> Sat, 16 May 2009 22:52:30 -0400 GATA) that elements in the US government are suppressing the gold price through financial proxies in order to maintain faith in the dollar and US government debt. "

Did anyone notice that it is not just gold that is being suppressed? GATA itself is. Check out this page: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/..., which documents the deletion of the wikipedia page on GATA.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137431-divergence-and-gold?source=feed#comment-502160 502160 Wed, 13 May 2009 11:50:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137239-northgate-minerals-another-junior-miner-on-the-move?source=feed#comment-501220 501220
>....

I forgot I have not looked at today's market when I wrote that. After the last two day's my profit is 185% , not 148% !!!!]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 18:51:35 -0400
>....

I forgot I have not looked at today's market when I wrote that. After the last two day's my profit is 185% , not 148% !!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137239-northgate-minerals-another-junior-miner-on-the-move?source=feed#comment-501202 501202 Tue, 12 May 2009 18:30:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137179-silver-looks-to-challenge-resistance?source=feed#comment-500585 500585
> The premiums one must pay to own physical PMs are getting crazy...look
> at the ebay prices of common coins and onces....It is definitely
> a seller's market. Even the wholesale marketer's of fresh minted
> coin and bullion have the same premiums. When it is the season to
> buy, one finds it is too late....or is it?

Another thing I forgot to mention. EBay's fees are so high it is not the best place to buy. Commisions on any auction starts at arounf 7% and goes up from there. There are other auction sites, with much lower volume, but lower prices. Try ola.com, for example.]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 12:18:38 -0400
> The premiums one must pay to own physical PMs are getting crazy...look
> at the ebay prices of common coins and onces....It is definitely
> a seller's market. Even the wholesale marketer's of fresh minted
> coin and bullion have the same premiums. When it is the season to
> buy, one finds it is too late....or is it?

Another thing I forgot to mention. EBay's fees are so high it is not the best place to buy. Commisions on any auction starts at arounf 7% and goes up from there. There are other auction sites, with much lower volume, but lower prices. Try ola.com, for example.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137179-silver-looks-to-challenge-resistance?source=feed#comment-500580 500580
> The premiums one must pay to own physical PMs are getting crazy...look
> at the ebay prices of common coins and onces....It is definitely
> a seller's market. Even the wholesale marketer's of fresh minted
> coin and bullion have the same premiums. When it is the season to
> buy, one finds it is too late....or is it?

It is not the premium which is important, it is the spread. If you can replace your silver for more than you sold it for then you are ahead, regardless of the premium.

Buy when there is a tempory low and sell when there is a temporary high. For example, about a month ago Apmex has a sale -- any bars $0.99 per ounce above spot - when the spot price was low. I picked up 500oz at $12.97 per ounce. Now the spot price is over $14. I could sell and make a nice little profit in just a fe weeks, but I am choosing to hang on.]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 12:16:39 -0400
> The premiums one must pay to own physical PMs are getting crazy...look
> at the ebay prices of common coins and onces....It is definitely
> a seller's market. Even the wholesale marketer's of fresh minted
> coin and bullion have the same premiums. When it is the season to
> buy, one finds it is too late....or is it?

It is not the premium which is important, it is the spread. If you can replace your silver for more than you sold it for then you are ahead, regardless of the premium.

Buy when there is a tempory low and sell when there is a temporary high. For example, about a month ago Apmex has a sale -- any bars $0.99 per ounce above spot - when the spot price was low. I picked up 500oz at $12.97 per ounce. Now the spot price is over $14. I could sell and make a nice little profit in just a fe weeks, but I am choosing to hang on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137179-silver-looks-to-challenge-resistance?source=feed#comment-500573 500573
I am not convinced that gold will outperform silver. The gold-to-silver ratio has been steadily declining and is now below 65. In another thread recently I said that I thought it would reach 60 by the time gold hit $1000 again. That would give a value of $16.67 for silver. I also said I expect it to drop to 50 by the time gold hits $1250, for a silver value of $25.]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 12:12:55 -0400
I am not convinced that gold will outperform silver. The gold-to-silver ratio has been steadily declining and is now below 65. In another thread recently I said that I thought it would reach 60 by the time gold hit $1000 again. That would give a value of $16.67 for silver. I also said I expect it to drop to 50 by the time gold hits $1250, for a silver value of $25.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/389447-goldcore/3921-gold-investments-market-update-silver-looks-to-challenge-resistance-near-14-50-oz-to-14-60-oz?source=feed#comment-500118 500118
I am not convinced that gold will outperform silver. The gold-to-silver ratio has been steadily declining and is now below 65. In another thread recently I said that I thought it would reach 60 by the time gold hit $1000 again. That would give a value of $16.67 for silver. I also said I expect it to drop to 50 by the time gold hits $1250, for a silver value of $25.]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 08:34:14 -0400
I am not convinced that gold will outperform silver. The gold-to-silver ratio has been steadily declining and is now below 65. In another thread recently I said that I thought it would reach 60 by the time gold hit $1000 again. That would give a value of $16.67 for silver. I also said I expect it to drop to 50 by the time gold hits $1250, for a silver value of $25.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136998-monday-morning-gold-screed?source=feed#comment-499745 499745
> If the gold bugs were just a bit more patient, they wouldn't be so
> cranky. They will be vindicated, but they shouldn't demand it happen
> Right This Minute.

If I thought it were going to happen right this minute I would not be a gold bug. Anything that happens that quickly tends to fall just as quickly.]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 21:13:03 -0400
> If the gold bugs were just a bit more patient, they wouldn't be so
> cranky. They will be vindicated, but they shouldn't demand it happen
> Right This Minute.

If I thought it were going to happen right this minute I would not be a gold bug. Anything that happens that quickly tends to fall just as quickly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136812-dow-to-gold-ratio-where-is-it-headed?source=feed#comment-498657 498657 Mon, 11 May 2009 07:57:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136849-how-will-gold-perform-in-the-coming-equity-crash?source=feed#comment-498652 498652
This article makes a lot of sense and raises some interesting thoughts. I have been thinking along similar lines and have not yet decided what to think. My gut feeling is that the physical stuff will hold up well, increasing steadily but with a relatively high volatility. The stocks, on the other hand, are a different issue. Whether they will sink with the ship or rise above because of increased leverage is a question which only time will answer. But I do think that a wide selection of juniors with suitable stop loss orders is likely to produce the best return over the next couple of years.]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 07:51:16 -0400
This article makes a lot of sense and raises some interesting thoughts. I have been thinking along similar lines and have not yet decided what to think. My gut feeling is that the physical stuff will hold up well, increasing steadily but with a relatively high volatility. The stocks, on the other hand, are a different issue. Whether they will sink with the ship or rise above because of increased leverage is a question which only time will answer. But I do think that a wide selection of juniors with suitable stop loss orders is likely to produce the best return over the next couple of years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136696-as-banking-reality-sets-in-gold-and-silver-look-good?source=feed#comment-497459 497459
> If you don't have gold, silver, platinum or palladium in your portfolio
> yet, do it now.

I suspect you are preaching to the converted when you post a comment like this on this article. I suspect the more relevant question for readers of this thread is not "whether?" it is "how much?". I have heared recommendations of everything from 10% to 80% of one's portfolio. I tend to believe in the high end (although it is not 80%). Perhaps more relevantly is how to split between physical, PM ETFs and similar, and mining stocks. My personal split is about 50%, 25%, 25%.]]> Sun, 10 May 2009 08:35:37 -0400
> If you don't have gold, silver, platinum or palladium in your portfolio
> yet, do it now.

I suspect you are preaching to the converted when you post a comment like this on this article. I suspect the more relevant question for readers of this thread is not "whether?" it is "how much?". I have heared recommendations of everything from 10% to 80% of one's portfolio. I tend to believe in the high end (although it is not 80%). Perhaps more relevantly is how to split between physical, PM ETFs and similar, and mining stocks. My personal split is about 50%, 25%, 25%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136696-as-banking-reality-sets-in-gold-and-silver-look-good?source=feed#comment-497458 497458
I think the last thing we need is an end-of-the-world. I see people who look for that more as "gold raptors" rather than "gold bugs". A long slow inexhorable rise is the best scenario for anyone who hold precious metals. That being said, it is inevitavble that there will be volatility and it is impossible to predict when large swings either way will take place. I would not want to be out of the PM market at any time during the next several years. My physical metals in safely stashed away somewhere and my stocks and funds have trailing stops losses with a list of potential buys in case one gets triggered.]]> Sun, 10 May 2009 08:34:40 -0400
I think the last thing we need is an end-of-the-world. I see people who look for that more as "gold raptors" rather than "gold bugs". A long slow inexhorable rise is the best scenario for anyone who hold precious metals. That being said, it is inevitavble that there will be volatility and it is impossible to predict when large swings either way will take place. I would not want to be out of the PM market at any time during the next several years. My physical metals in safely stashed away somewhere and my stocks and funds have trailing stops losses with a list of potential buys in case one gets triggered.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136589-dollar-s-purchasing-power-annihilated-the-chart-they-don-t-want-you-to-see?source=feed#comment-496950 496950 > Who are "they" who don't want us to see the chart? This info is not
> news to me, and I certainly don't have any inside insight into it.
> You know, there is a flip side to this purchasing power argument;
> the average annual pay 76 years ago was $1550, and today it's $38,000.
> Hey, what do you know, 76 years ago it was 94% less.

And an ounce of gold also bought the same then as now. So what has happened? Money has been inflated so that the greedy plutocrats could skim their percentage off the top.]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 15:29:07 -0400 > Who are "they" who don't want us to see the chart? This info is not
> news to me, and I certainly don't have any inside insight into it.
> You know, there is a flip side to this purchasing power argument;
> the average annual pay 76 years ago was $1550, and today it's $38,000.
> Hey, what do you know, 76 years ago it was 94% less.

And an ounce of gold also bought the same then as now. So what has happened? Money has been inflated so that the greedy plutocrats could skim their percentage off the top.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136589-dollar-s-purchasing-power-annihilated-the-chart-they-don-t-want-you-to-see?source=feed#comment-496659 496659 > If you happen to be old enough to remember 1971, How many people do you know that do not have it much better now than then.

I don't know anyone who has it better now than in 1971. At least, because of the generation gap, better now than their parents had it in 1971. Back then people had what they needed without the additional worries and stress of exhorbitant debt, both personal and federal. Now they have what they want, PLUS what they DON'T want but society tells them they need, but they also have more stress and debt, and less financial security and much higher health care costs (and, as a consequence, inferior health care).

Given a choice I would prefer to return to the situation of 1971 than stay where we are now.]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 10:14:06 -0400 > If you happen to be old enough to remember 1971, How many people do you know that do not have it much better now than then.

I don't know anyone who has it better now than in 1971. At least, because of the generation gap, better now than their parents had it in 1971. Back then people had what they needed without the additional worries and stress of exhorbitant debt, both personal and federal. Now they have what they want, PLUS what they DON'T want but society tells them they need, but they also have more stress and debt, and less financial security and much higher health care costs (and, as a consequence, inferior health care).

Given a choice I would prefer to return to the situation of 1971 than stay where we are now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136589-dollar-s-purchasing-power-annihilated-the-chart-they-don-t-want-you-to-see?source=feed#comment-496648 496648 > Tyler,
>
> What was the methodology used for calculating the purchasing power?
> Correct me if I am wrong, but it appears that today we can buy a
> lot more carrots, bananas, autos and movie tickets than in '20s,
> even with unemployment benefits money. No?

Are you sure about this? One of the reasons for the current fiasco is that people could NOT buy a lot more, but they could CHARGE a lot more.]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 10:04:43 -0400 > Tyler,
>
> What was the methodology used for calculating the purchasing power?
> Correct me if I am wrong, but it appears that today we can buy a
> lot more carrots, bananas, autos and movie tickets than in '20s,
> even with unemployment benefits money. No?

Are you sure about this? One of the reasons for the current fiasco is that people could NOT buy a lot more, but they could CHARGE a lot more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136318-potential-troublespot-for-the-consumer-price-index?source=feed#comment-494996 494996

On May 07 11:46 PM Poppa Bear wrote:

> Sorry Tim, but that Market Watch story is just more phony media propaganda.
> I live in Florida and I was able to get a rent reduction on a very
> nice 1600 square foot 3 bedroom apartment located in an intercoastal
> community. My rent was $1100 per month and it's now been reduced
> to $1000. This condo was also reduced a year ago when I first started
> renting it.
>
> There are a million empty units in Florida right now and they're
> still finishing condo projects that were started during the real
> estate boom. People that are losing homes to foreclosure are leaving
> Florida for other states that might have more job opportunities.
>
>
> This Market Watch story was probably regurgitated information from
> National Association Of Realtors, you know, the same knuckleheads
> that missed the real estate bubble.


You are probably correct. After all, you live there. But the problem is that most people don't and so they believe what they read in the media. If someone in the media says it is true then it becomes, de facto, true and the entire market responds.]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 01:26:34 -0400

On May 07 11:46 PM Poppa Bear wrote:

> Sorry Tim, but that Market Watch story is just more phony media propaganda.
> I live in Florida and I was able to get a rent reduction on a very
> nice 1600 square foot 3 bedroom apartment located in an intercoastal
> community. My rent was $1100 per month and it's now been reduced
> to $1000. This condo was also reduced a year ago when I first started
> renting it.
>
> There are a million empty units in Florida right now and they're
> still finishing condo projects that were started during the real
> estate boom. People that are losing homes to foreclosure are leaving
> Florida for other states that might have more job opportunities.
>
>
> This Market Watch story was probably regurgitated information from
> National Association Of Realtors, you know, the same knuckleheads
> that missed the real estate bubble.


You are probably correct. After all, you live there. But the problem is that most people don't and so they believe what they read in the media. If someone in the media says it is true then it becomes, de facto, true and the entire market responds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136228-gold-regaining-its-luster?source=feed#comment-494863 494863 Thu, 07 May 2009 21:58:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136279-gold-and-its-ratios-on-the-move?source=feed#comment-494855 494855 Thu, 07 May 2009 21:53:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136134-leveraging-silver-with-stocks?source=feed#comment-493851 493851
This is about the same as the return on my physical silver but my point is that by selecting RANDOM stocks I was able to match the silver price, and in the process way out perform the general market. If I had had the time to investigate the stocks further I would almost certainly have had much better returns. Or if I had had the time to determine a more rigorous exit strategy I would probably have returned closer to 75% then 50% from this random collection because several of those stocks are now off their high since I bought then.

I disciplined investor, who had the time to spend several hours a week in this sector could easily have returned well over 100% in about six months. Now that I have more time I am anticipating being able to achieve at least 100% in the next six months. I keep a sizable holding in physical silver, as an insurance policy, but I am moving more and more into a combination of large mining producers and junior stocks and looking to move more into silver stocks than gold stocks.]]> Thu, 07 May 2009 11:22:34 -0400
This is about the same as the return on my physical silver but my point is that by selecting RANDOM stocks I was able to match the silver price, and in the process way out perform the general market. If I had had the time to investigate the stocks further I would almost certainly have had much better returns. Or if I had had the time to determine a more rigorous exit strategy I would probably have returned closer to 75% then 50% from this random collection because several of those stocks are now off their high since I bought then.

I disciplined investor, who had the time to spend several hours a week in this sector could easily have returned well over 100% in about six months. Now that I have more time I am anticipating being able to achieve at least 100% in the next six months. I keep a sizable holding in physical silver, as an insurance policy, but I am moving more and more into a combination of large mining producers and junior stocks and looking to move more into silver stocks than gold stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135638-general-motors-officially-wiping-out-common-shareholders?source=feed#comment-492666 492666 Wed, 06 May 2009 16:33:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135697-the-silver-lining-of-gold-fever?source=feed#comment-491776 491776
According to all the law of logic and supply and demand, silver should go way high. Maybe higher than the price of $200 you qoute. I read somewhere recently, I think in an article by Ted Butler, that ultimatley silver and gold would be the same price. But will the public go for that? Will the brakes be put on before a 10:1 ratio is reached? I have a feeling that they might, simply because such a low ratio is not part of the expectations of people in the current financial business. Most are relatively young and don't remember a ratio of 15:1. And don't forget, large scale financial institutions control the price, not small investors.

I have no doubt your numbers are correct. Trying to decide whether your conclusions are correct leaves me sitting on a fence, undecided. But does it really matter? Silver if going to be worth a whole lot more pretty soon and those of us who have it now are going to be smiling.]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 09:51:52 -0400
According to all the law of logic and supply and demand, silver should go way high. Maybe higher than the price of $200 you qoute. I read somewhere recently, I think in an article by Ted Butler, that ultimatley silver and gold would be the same price. But will the public go for that? Will the brakes be put on before a 10:1 ratio is reached? I have a feeling that they might, simply because such a low ratio is not part of the expectations of people in the current financial business. Most are relatively young and don't remember a ratio of 15:1. And don't forget, large scale financial institutions control the price, not small investors.

I have no doubt your numbers are correct. Trying to decide whether your conclusions are correct leaves me sitting on a fence, undecided. But does it really matter? Silver if going to be worth a whole lot more pretty soon and those of us who have it now are going to be smiling.]]>