Skaterdude

Finding the Most Undervalued Green Energy Company

Ah, isn't this just the PE ratio? The second paragraph could have been two sentences if you just say this ...

E*Trade: Very Undervalued

I don't think this is a good bet - and i do mean bet. If you look at the quarterly earnings, the loss fell by about half. However, if you turn to the quarterly balance sheet, the shares outstanding about doubled. Since the EPS is based upon average weighted shares outstanding, some of the apparent improvement is due to the loss being spread amonst more shares. In the next quarter that effect will be even greater.

Then if you look at the last few quarterly income statements, you'll see that revenue is slowly growing and operating expenses are slowly falling. To what extent the Company can continue cutting costs and still provide competitive services is yet to be seen. But since this is a service-oriented company, investing in delivering to the customer is important. If losses continue to fall and eventually turn into earnings, you're still fighting the larger number of shares outstanding as well as the large amount of goodwill in the shareholder equity (as noted above). So this is dicey as an investment. I like the services - use it all the time, just not big on it as an investment.

Solar Progress: Reminiscent of Multi-Chip Modules and Optoelectronics

Another article mentioned private Chinese companies that do not show up on the radar. I wonder to what extent they will be able to clean up if there is a shakeout. Private companies can be more patient as they do not have public shareholders to please.

Also, what about the intermediaries: the companies that produce the inverters and power conditioners between the solar panels and the consumer. There are public and private companies in that space: Xantrex, Enphase, etc.

The High Cost of Carry Trades and Their Impacts on the Markets

I don't understand the negative carry in the oil contracts you cited. Isn't the carrying cost outside the futures market? I.e., the cost to store oil delivered in February until delivery on a short contract for July isn't related to the gap in the contracts. Or are you saying that the implied carrying cost is high, because it's reflected in the differential between the contracts because of this arbitrage?

Thanks for an informative article.

A Look at Four Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers' Funding

I've been "lurking" through these posts and finally had to comment. The postings here got me to actually read the SEC filings (2007 year-end) for SOL and SOLF. (I know SOL is not one of the companies mentioned in this article, but it's pretty much in the same boat.)
One of the things I wanted to see was the "growing operating cash losses" mentioned at the start of this article. I don't see them. I expected to see some odd accounting charges, outright negative net income, etc., but it's not there. Yes, I agree that these companies have heavy capital needs due to the situation with advances to suppliers. That's only a serious problem if the suppliers go under and the advances cannot be recovered. The other risks seem to me to be the same risks any growing technology company assumes (as someone else already mentioned). With committed contracts and prices on both sides, it would seem like neither the upside nor the downside is significant in the near term (2 years).
So ... could you walk us through your numbers and show how you come up with the operating cash losses?

Thanks