inthemoney

Paulson and Faber: Similar Macro Outlooks

> Devaluation of te dollar is "illegal taxation" WAKEUP!!!!!!!!

We should call it like it is - stealing. Yes, your government is engaged into outright stealing of your hard earned money in order to save the banking system, which will inevitbly blow up again several years down the road due to moral hazard.

The Financial Commentator on the Economy

Market and economy are too different things. Market is driven by immidate available liquidity and perception of the risk ( i.e. physcology). Economy is also driven by liquidity , i.e. availability of finance and perception of the rsik, but with several months lag, but in addition economy has to take into account global situation, taxes, supply/demand.
Economy is much more complex but because it shares some drivers with the market it appears that they are closely related. However, when the drivers most influencing economy are different from the market's like right now , eveonoy and market can diverge significantly.

In another step in its clampdown on speculation, the CFTC considers further closing the "Enron loophole" that exempted many over-the-counter energy trades from regulation. The commission will examine 17 natural gas and power contracts for "significant price discovery function," meaning they should be regulated.

Funny how they are looking at it now trying to prevent the rise in the oil price. Oil price is rising because of the dollar weakness. Stop printing money, if you want to get oil going lower.

Who else can share the blame for the housing bubble? How about urban planners? Differences in growth management may explain why California and Florida bubbled, but Georgia and Texas didn't - and may point the way to preventing the next one.

Texas didn't bubble because of there is lots of land, (illegal)construction labor is cheap and property taxes are high. I pay more in property taxes than my mortgage . Of course, I don't want a big expensive house.

Market Reaction: The RIM Lesson

> There is no way that on the results and forward guidance announced yesterday, the business is worth 10-15% less than it was before the results were announced.

May be you should ask yourself whether it wa sworth whatever it was trading before the earings announcement?

Simon Hobbes Talks Valuation and Money Printing on CNBC

That was quite refershing to say it like it is. Fast Money traders know Simon was telling the truth but they chose not to comment instead of lieying in our face, so you have to give them that. Instead that tried to redirect the conversation.
The facial experession were priceless. They couldn't beleive they were hearing the truth on the live TV. Who on earth does that anymore? Certainly, not in the US.

U.S. Quantitative Easing Has Just Begun

> If Obama wants to create jobs for US citizens he needs to permanently end the H-1B, H-2B, etc.. foreign worker programs. This would significantly reduce unemployment for US CITIZENS. There is no excuse as to why these programs should remain with 16+% unemployment (full & part-time). Corporate America has used these foreign worker programs to undercut US salaries, and fatten executive salaries.

If you ban H1Bs these jobs will simply be exported as well because there are simply not enough qualified americans in certain areas. We need to get more H1Bs , they are educated hardworking people who will be spending their money here in the US, buying the houses in the US, they don't need our tax dollar support like illegal immigrants, they pay SSN even though they are never going to use it unless they eventually become citizens.
In short, you are barking at a wrong tree.

Why I Covered Half My Shorts

> ALL of this information has been publicly and easily available for months. The stock charts (the ones going up) have been available for months. Why do you have any shorts left at all? The time may come for shorting, but it is not now. Anticipatory shorting (or anticipatory buying long, for that matter) is a fool's game. Wait for the turn; play the trend that exists, not the one you expect (or wish for) down the road. This is not a college term paper about where things might go. It is about what's happening right now.

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Sometimes trend following strategies work and sometimes they don't. More often than not they don't work ebcause the market is sideways. Lst 6 months the market has been unidirectional, but that is not the norm.

What Will the Fed Report Today?

As for the FED says, didn't Bernanke tell us last week that we are in the recovery?

What Will the Fed Report Today?

> Contrary to MikeX, I do NOT believe housing is affordable yet. Property tax rates are far too high for sustainable home ownership, for one thing. They now account for roughly one-fourth of a monthly mortgage payment.

In houston area property taxes are in 2-3.5% range, we pay 3.2% . So, it is about 50% of the mortgage.

U.S. Quantitative Easing Has Just Begun

> If Bernanke and Obama were truly concerned about preserving jobs, they would have required banks loaded with taxpayer bail-out loot to lend these funds to consumers and business. China did so, ordering its banks to increase credit. And boy, did they, expanding credit by an eye-popping 30%, rocketing China's economy out of recession and into double-digit growth.

The problem is that US consumers can't handle anymore debt so Chinese solution won't work, we already used up this trick in 2002 recession. At some point one has to pay the piper and FED is simply delyaing the inevitable.

As for QE results, just look at the stock market, corporate bond market , where did all that money come from if not QE? And since FED makes everything a secret, I prefer to trust my eyes then whateve incomplete numbers FED puts out to promote its story,

The Recession Is Far from Over

> The dollar will not be toast. Reason is, when these commodities go through the roof people will just quit spending. You watch. Milk went to 5 bucks a gallon and people simply stopped buying. If gas goes to 4 people will stop driving.

The dollar is at the level it was a year ago but commodities are much lower right now. Will we get commodities "bubble" again in anticipation of lower dollar, I am not sure. CFTC is trying to crack down on commodities traders to prevent the repeat of last year and delay the inevitable.

Is This a Sucker's Rally?

> Buying quality stock in a company that has a low level of debt and a clear strategy for increasing their future long term revenue is an investment.

Right, and it clearly didn't work in this rally, whatever it is. Just look at M, drowning in debt, up more than 100% from March to $18 and upgraded to $30 today. Why? I have no idea. Is that the kind of low-debt quality company you had in mind?
This mrket is no more than gamble. People are tryign to explain it but there is no explanation other than the excess liquidity driving it and so the more leveraged the play tjhe higher it flies.

Macy's (M +4.5%) efforts to 'localize' stores and empower regional management continues to gain traction, Citigroup's Deborah Weinswig says, bumping shares to Buy from Hold while doubling price target to $30. The company launched its "My Macy's" strategy last year.

$30 dollars? From $8-10 at the bottom, i.e. 300% increase ina year on a huge retail behemoth with the debt up to its ears in the Great Recession? Unbelievable.

Is the FHA a Bailout Waiting to Happen?

> This article propagates a lot of the incorrect criticism about FHA loans. FHA purchases actually have substantially more red tape to clear than other mortgages, more documentation requirements on personal finances, and higher credit scores requirements

In that case, why not get a private mortgage?