inthemoney

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

> Also keep in mind: The Fed is rapidly running out of QE money and without government stimulus this market is toast because there is not enough liquidity in the economy to replace the Fed and its dollars.

That is the thing , though, isn't it? The FED can continue QE as long as it likes. FED can produce "money" out of thin air, by typing numbers in a computer.
The price for it is the falling dollar, but I agree with an earlier posted, the dollar is being intentionally sacrificed to keep up the appearances. And as long as China has the yuan pegged, the appearances will be kept.
Only if dollar collapses, the status quo will be shaken.

Stocks Soar, Unemployment Rises, Dollar Slumps

> We grossly overuse health services here- soccer moms running kids to the doctor at the first sneeze. I don't remember it that way even thirty years ago. No matter, something must be done about it.

That is because you need a presription for everything these days. In many other countries basic antibiotics are sold without a prescription.
I see it as a job security for doctors. Nobody wants to go to the doctors more than they need to, but often we re being forced to.

Why Are Markets Rising When Unemployment Is Soaring?

Corporations have obligations to shareholders to increase their profits through any legal way possible. The fact that US tax code is so favorable for multinationals and allows many loopholes, who's fault is that?
The fault lies with US Congress - paid and bought for by the money of the said corporations through various lobbies and donations. May be if we stopped allowing donations and lobbying from non-persons, that would change ?

Consumer Confidence Is a Lagging Indicator: Expect Post-Recession Gloom Through 2010

Consumer confidence and unemployement only become lagging indicators when they stop declining and stabilize, until then they are leading indicators.

Housing Is Moving Towards Disaster

> One big problem is largely unnoticed - the whole appraisal reform has grossly damaged something that actually did work.

Are you serious? I am, fo one, very glad of appraisals coming back to reality. I am sick and tired of paying property taxes every year , increase 10% every year (the cap) because of inflated appraisals. I didn't plan for 10% yoy increase when I bought the house.

Extending the tax credit for the poorest segment of borrowers is also a bad idea. These are poeple who are already overextended with prior debts, falling wages, cash for clunckers, and now we are pushing them into home ownership. They probably just foreclosed on a house they bought in boom years. they are not in a position to buy new one, tax credit or not.

Does the Market Anticipate the Economy?

Market reflects available liquiditity and investor physicology at a given moment. If there is more liquidity avaialble the market will go up ( like right now) regardless of the economy. Economy usually will also grow with more liquidity, that is why it looks like market predicts the economy while in truth it is the amount of liquidity available that predicts it.
Currently, though liquidity also gets destroyed quickly ( by the write-offs), banks are hoarding it and people ar not putting it into economy (due to high debt load). This is why this time it will be much lower growth given the amount of liquidity in the system. And this is why we see the disconnect between the market and the economy.
This additional liquidity from money printing is like a drag - it gets the market high only to crash when the economy doesn't recoveras expected.

U.S. Quantitative Easing Has Just Begun

> If Obama wants to create jobs for US citizens he needs to permanently end the H-1B, H-2B, etc.. foreign worker programs. This would significantly reduce unemployment for US CITIZENS. There is no excuse as to why these programs should remain with 16+% unemployment (full & part-time). Corporate America has used these foreign worker programs to undercut US salaries, and fatten executive salaries.

If you ban H1Bs these jobs will simply be exported as well because there are simply not enough qualified americans in certain areas. We need to get more H1Bs , they are educated hardworking people who will be spending their money here in the US, buying the houses in the US, they don't need our tax dollar support like illegal immigrants, they pay SSN even though they are never going to use it unless they eventually become citizens.
In short, you are barking at a wrong tree.

What Will the Fed Report Today?

As for the FED says, didn't Bernanke tell us last week that we are in the recovery?

What Will the Fed Report Today?

> Contrary to MikeX, I do NOT believe housing is affordable yet. Property tax rates are far too high for sustainable home ownership, for one thing. They now account for roughly one-fourth of a monthly mortgage payment.

In houston area property taxes are in 2-3.5% range, we pay 3.2% . So, it is about 50% of the mortgage.

U.S. Quantitative Easing Has Just Begun

> If Bernanke and Obama were truly concerned about preserving jobs, they would have required banks loaded with taxpayer bail-out loot to lend these funds to consumers and business. China did so, ordering its banks to increase credit. And boy, did they, expanding credit by an eye-popping 30%, rocketing China's economy out of recession and into double-digit growth.

The problem is that US consumers can't handle anymore debt so Chinese solution won't work, we already used up this trick in 2002 recession. At some point one has to pay the piper and FED is simply delyaing the inevitable.

As for QE results, just look at the stock market, corporate bond market , where did all that money come from if not QE? And since FED makes everything a secret, I prefer to trust my eyes then whateve incomplete numbers FED puts out to promote its story,

The Recession Is Far from Over

> The dollar will not be toast. Reason is, when these commodities go through the roof people will just quit spending. You watch. Milk went to 5 bucks a gallon and people simply stopped buying. If gas goes to 4 people will stop driving.

The dollar is at the level it was a year ago but commodities are much lower right now. Will we get commodities "bubble" again in anticipation of lower dollar, I am not sure. CFTC is trying to crack down on commodities traders to prevent the repeat of last year and delay the inevitable.

Is This a Sucker's Rally?

> Buying quality stock in a company that has a low level of debt and a clear strategy for increasing their future long term revenue is an investment.

Right, and it clearly didn't work in this rally, whatever it is. Just look at M, drowning in debt, up more than 100% from March to $18 and upgraded to $30 today. Why? I have no idea. Is that the kind of low-debt quality company you had in mind?
This mrket is no more than gamble. People are tryign to explain it but there is no explanation other than the excess liquidity driving it and so the more leveraged the play tjhe higher it flies.

The Greatest Bull Market that No One Loves

The title should read "bubble market", then it will make perfect sense.

Options Trader: Toppy Tuesday Morning

It seems most people figured out that the market is rigged and the only traders left are the robot kind run by major investment houses, the owners of the casino. That is why the volume is low. It is not coming back until the rigging of the market continues.

Inflation May Be the Solution

> Am I the only person that feels that Fairness still has a place in the world? That we should, perhaps, live up to the promises we made, no matter how painful it is?

No, you are not. I feel the same way. But it seems most people onloy think about numbers, not about the hard and cold reality behind the numbers.