inthemoney

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

> btw, India and China are not like the free world (aka USA). Like Singapore, they will slam 1000% tax on SUVs if crude consumption keeps going higher to cut consumption.

Even with all the taxes they will still buy cars. I am always amazed to see so many expensive cars in Moscow. Especially since you have to pay twice as much for them as in the US. I am sure China is not much different.

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

> When I read this article I thought it was too late to short oil. By the comments posted I see its not.
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You are assuming that you can trade commodities 100% on technicals like stocks. You are wrong, commodities have to be actually produced . As other people stated it costs $60 - 70 to produce oil rigth now , it could change in 5 year, but for now you will never see oil below $80 for this reason. Sometimes you can buy stocks, though, much lower than their fair vaue because it is paper, and in panic selling, people sell without any regard for cost. When you are buying commodities, it is not a scared retail investor you have on the other side, it is a producer of the commodities. Of course, with all the hedge funds, the moves are magnified to the extremes, but in the end, you cannot go below cost on commodities.