morph366

The Role of the 200-Day Average in Risk Management

What has been recently noteworthy is how many indices and sector funds, including the S&P and overseas indices, have all run into overhead resistance from the 200 day exponential moving average (EMA)
I prefer to use the exponential rather than the simple moving average as it applies more recent weighting to the more recent price action.

The Economy Is Bottoming

According to investment theory - or should that be folklore - the markets are discounting 6-9 months ahead. Recently, as the author of the article suggests they may be correcting from the very pessimistic discounting that was being applied at the end of 08 and early 09 but now they could be discounting too optimistically where the economy will be at the end of 09.
That's why makes markets fluctuate as the wise man once said.

It's a Winter Warming Spell - But More Snow Ahead for Markets

Whether we are at or near the bottom for the S&P 500 is less interesting than the question which you touch on in points 12 and 13 which has to do with the shape of the recovery and how much appetite there is for risk capital in the coming years.
At the moment the feedback loops are all deflationary. However the remarkable capacity that human beings have to forget the unpleasant episodes and to move forward with hope and optimism suggests that the high leverage/super-liquidi... boom feedback loop will one day come out from its hiding place. At least that's what the politicians, central bankers and asset inventory managers like Warren Buffet are hoping