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GSlusher

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  • Why Apple Will Beat The Street [View article]
    Could you explain that "law of large numbers"? The way I read it used on most financial blogs is 1) nothing connected to the real mathematical law, which is also known as 'regression to the mean." and 2) applied by people who don't have a clue what it really means.

    If you think that Apple is somehow "different" because it is so large, then divide the company up into iPhone, Mac, iPad, iPod, iTunes divisions and consider them separately.
    Dec 3, 2012. 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Below Microsoft's Surface; Winners And Losers In The Tablet Wars [View article]
    An update: "Upstream supply chain sees Surface RT orders cut by half"

    http://bit.ly/TtKB5Q

    Now, the FIRST thing to consider is that Digitimes isn't known as an extremely reliable source. We really need to wait for some other sources to confirm or debunk this.
    Nov 30, 2012. 03:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Will Be Issuing Debt [View article]
    I guess that investors (the big ones, the only ones that really count) are assuming that Amazon will eventually turn all those sales into real profits. That will require margins to increase, which would mean that expenses would have to go down relatively. Merely selling more stuff may not help a lot when the gross margins are so thin.

    I've read comments where people say that, as Amazon has been investing a lot in facilities, that once they're "through," their expenses will go down. Amazon's recent losses are not due to capital expenditures. If I understand correctly, capital expenditures don't count, one way or another, toward gross or operating margins, though debt service and amortization and depreciation may.

    With debt, Amazon's expenses will probably increase, not decrease due to debt service and interest.
    Nov 27, 2012. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Amazon Win Investors' Hearts Soon? [View article]
    "Will Amazon win investors' hearts in the coming future?"

    You must be kidding. Amazon LOSES money (loss of $0.23 per share adjusted, $0.60 GAAP) and investors shrug their shoulders. Amazon refuses to give investors relevant details on its business and is rewarded with sky-high P/E. Amazon engages in predatory pricing rather like Standard Oil of so many years ago and is praised to the skies. Amazon apparently sells the Kindle Fire pretty much at or below cost, in the hope that it will generate more sales of content and stuff, but won't say whether this strategy works. (More to the point, they'd have to show that the Kindle Fires generated sales that otherwise would not have been made.)

    I buy stuff from Amazon when it's cheaper and I can get it quickly, but I won't buy the stock.
    Nov 26, 2012. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: On The Road To Kodak [View article]
    Let's see how long it takes for diehard RIM fans to jump in and call the author an idiot. They will probably cherry-pick the stock price data, go on and on about the "subscriber base" and how many (cheap) Blackberries are sold in X region (Middle East, for example), and go into ecstasy about QNX (someone will probably mention that it's used in nuclear power plants), while conveniently ignoring minor bits of reality like RIM's financial data.
    Nov 14, 2012. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Future Plans May Necessitate A Switch From Intel To ARM Chips [View article]
    "Apple's Air laptops are its lowest-power computers..."

    No, they're not. They're more powerful than the iPads. Oh, I know, you're going to claim that the iPad isn't a computer. Well, folks, my iPad 2 is more powerful than the first four Macs I owned, not to mention the Apple //c. It's faster, has more RAM, more storage, a better and larger display, etc. if my PowerBook 100 is a "computer," then, so is my iPad 2.
    Nov 7, 2012. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Microsoft Train Wreck [View article]
    "Google was only a few months behind Apple in entering the tablet market"

    When? Google didn't come out with its own tablet until recently. Don't confuse Google with manufacturers who use Android, especially those who put out tablets using a version of Android that Google said should not be used for tablets.
    Nov 1, 2012. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft Stores Will Cause A Paradigm Shift [View article]
    "The surface will connect with xbox..."

    Which is pretty much irrelevant. What happens when you take the Surface somewhere else? Can you also take the "xBox" music WITH you, on some portable player? Oh, right--Microsoft killed off the Zune, so they don't have ANY portable player. None.
    Oct 16, 2012. 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What An iPad Mini Really Means For PC Sales [View article]
    @Systembolaget:

    "One reason why that's possible is the crippled language, grammar and spelling prevalent in many online forums today."

    I'm confused. How does that follow? I see that phenomenon from people who use PCs, so it can't be associated with tablets. You really should read the comments on asymco, as most are several orders of magnitude more erudite and articulate than what one sees in "many online forums today."
    Oct 15, 2012. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What An iPad Mini Really Means For PC Sales [View article]
    "However if you need perform tasks (like typing in this comment) that require any amount of keyboard interaction, I prefer a real keyboard."

    Not everyone does. I regularly read Horace Dediu's articles on Asymco. Many of the commenters use iPads to type comments 5-10 times as long as yours here.

    "By the time I add a keyboard and mouse to a pad I have raised the price by $150-$200."

    An iPad case with a keyboard (and built-in stand) costs $60, not $200.

    "So I can buy a decent small screen netbook, notebook or once the price comes down an ultrabook, for less money."

    Consider that you can use an iPad with or without the keyboard. You can comfortably use the iPad in your hands. You can't do that with the netbook, much less an ultrabook.

    "... for now I am sticking with what works for me."

    That's just what you should do. However, don't make the mistake of projecting your situation onto tens of millions of other people. By the end of last quarter, Apple had sold 84M iPads. iPad sales grew faster after their initial launch than any consumer electronics device except games consoles. iPad sales have grown much faster than iPhone sales, for example.

    If you consider tablets to be "PCs" (they are MUCH more powerful than some laptop--or desktop!--computers that I have owned), then Apple is, by far, the largest computer manufacturer in the world. In the last quarter, HP sold 13.95M (IDC) or 13.55M (Gartner) PCs, worldwide. (Gartner had Lenovo slightly ahead at 13.77M.) We don't know, yet, what Apple sold, but, in the quarter before that, Apple sold 4.02M Macs -- and 17.04M iPads, for a total of 21+M, more than half again as many as HP sold and more than Dell and Acer did, together. It's possible that, in the holiday quarter we're now in, Apple could sell as many computers (Macs + iPads) as HP and Lenovo put together.
    Oct 15, 2012. 04:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What An iPad Mini Really Means For PC Sales [View article]
    @JaxxBat:

    How would you use that mini notebook? Would it have a keyboard of the same dimensions as the screen? If it did, could any adult actually type on it? If not, why have the small screen? Did you ever use the "chiclet" sub-standard size keyboards that came with some early computers?

    I have an Apple Wireless Keyboard. It's about the minimum size for a standard keyboard at 11+" long & 4.5" high (not counting the battery chamber). That's MUCH bigger than a 7" tablet.

    "I dont do touch screen" (missing a few punctuation marks there, Jaxx)

    Unless you're physically incapable of using a touch screen (one member of a Mac support group I'm in can't; he has to have a support for his hand to type because of cerebral palsy), that sounds a lot like the people who didn't "do" USB and insisted upon using serial and parallel ports.
    Oct 15, 2012. 04:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What An iPad Mini Really Means For PC Sales [View article]
    @iknoerle:

    Windows 8 will be usable without touch. There are at least two versions, one for tablets with touch screens, the other for PCs. They both will have the "Modern UI" or whatever Microsoft is calling the UI-formerly-known-as-M... but one can get past that on PCs to a more traditional UI.
    Oct 15, 2012. 03:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Split Dell And HP At Your Peril [View article]
    @twist54:

    Yep. There are a few problems with that, however.

    1. What has DELL done in the same period? MUCH better, I guess--it's down only 6.6%.

    2. You're "cherry-picking" data. If you carefully choose the period, you can imply different things. Let's say that you have a bit longer-term horizon than a few weeks, like 3 months. In 3 months, AAPL is up 4%. DELL has done MUCH better, of course, if you ignore the sign, as it is down over 21%. At one year, AAPL is up 495; DELL is down over 41%.

    3. You're using AAPL's all-time high. Let's do the same for DELL. The best I could find was $56.44 the week of March 20, 2000. Since then, DELL is down 83%. In the same period, AAPL is up a little bit, only 1900+%. In contrast, DELL hasn't been this low since February, 2009.

    It wasn't long ago that Dell's market cap was several times Apple's. Now, even with the recent declines, Apple's market cap is 36 times Dell's. Perhaps Michael Dell should just close the company and give the investors their money back.
    Oct 13, 2012. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Split Dell And HP At Your Peril [View article]
    Ah, Ankur, so you combine Apple-hating with homophobia. How attractive. Here's a suggestion: find someone above you at your employer who uses any Apple product--iPhone, iPad, etc, and call him/her "ifag," to his/her face. If you're self-employed, do this with your clients--every one who uses any Apple product.
    Oct 13, 2012. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Split Dell And HP At Your Peril [View article]
    "The popular belief that mainframes were made obsolete 20 years ago by the PC, has not actually occurred yet."

    Who said that mainframes were "obsolete"? Of course, I guess that DEC is going great guns selling mainframes.
    Oct 13, 2012. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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