GSlusher's Comments GSlusher's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/224843/comments Apple's App Store Numbers Continue to Amaze http://seekingalpha.com/article/171439-apple-s-app-store-numbers-continue-to-amaze?source=feed#comment-785700 785700

On Nov 07 03:06 AM Doug, Mtn. View, CA wrote:

> Uh, no. There was never an App Store until the iPhone came along,
> and even then Apple had to be prodded to do it.]]>
Wed, 02 Dec 2009 03:42:36 -0500

On Nov 07 03:06 AM Doug, Mtn. View, CA wrote:

> Uh, no. There was never an App Store until the iPhone came along,
> and even then Apple had to be prodded to do it.]]>
Android and Apple: Smartphones Require Smart Strategy http://seekingalpha.com/article/176045-android-and-apple-smartphones-require-smart-strategy?source=feed#comment-785696 785696
That's a negative feature, in that every manufacturer can make a substantially different Android handset with a MODIFIED OS and with different versions of the OS that may or may not be upgradeable. On top of that, they vary in buttons, hardware features, radios, etc. That makes it had for developers to ensure that their software will work on all Android handsets. What works on a Motorola handset may not work the same on a HTC handset. (What works on one HTC handset may not even work the same on another HTC handset.)

This was the situation in the PC world until Microsoft essentially imposed standard hardware requirements--I think that it was with Windows 95. In PC gaming those many years ago, a game developer would have to worry about different video cards as well as different processors.

Daniel Eran Dilger of Roughly Drafted had written extensively about the problem with Android's fragmentation.]]>
Wed, 02 Dec 2009 03:27:44 -0500
That's a negative feature, in that every manufacturer can make a substantially different Android handset with a MODIFIED OS and with different versions of the OS that may or may not be upgradeable. On top of that, they vary in buttons, hardware features, radios, etc. That makes it had for developers to ensure that their software will work on all Android handsets. What works on a Motorola handset may not work the same on a HTC handset. (What works on one HTC handset may not even work the same on another HTC handset.)

This was the situation in the PC world until Microsoft essentially imposed standard hardware requirements--I think that it was with Windows 95. In PC gaming those many years ago, a game developer would have to worry about different video cards as well as different processors.

Daniel Eran Dilger of Roughly Drafted had written extensively about the problem with Android's fragmentation.]]>
The iPhone's Next Carrier Is Likely T-Mobile, Not Verizon http://seekingalpha.com/article/175805-the-iphone-s-next-carrier-is-likely-t-mobile-not-verizon?source=feed#comment-783234 783234
Apple would have to design & get approval for a CDMA phone. IF, as some suggest, they were going to offer a phone through Verizon next June, they would have to be in that process now.

Apple would also have to support two different technologies, then add another when LTE is rolled out. Certainly, Nokia and others do this now, but they have a built-in support base, plus they hand off a lot of tech support to the carriers. ]]>
Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:50:38 -0500
Apple would have to design & get approval for a CDMA phone. IF, as some suggest, they were going to offer a phone through Verizon next June, they would have to be in that process now.

Apple would also have to support two different technologies, then add another when LTE is rolled out. Certainly, Nokia and others do this now, but they have a built-in support base, plus they hand off a lot of tech support to the carriers. ]]>
What if Steve Jobs Hadn’t Returned to Apple in 1997? http://seekingalpha.com/article/175457-what-if-steve-jobs-hadnt-returned-to-apple-in-1997?source=feed#comment-780004 780004
Others:
- Light sensor that shuts off the backlight when you hold the iPhone to your head.
- Accelerometer that can be used not only for automatically shifting to landscape mode, but as a game controller, as well.
- Gestures, like "inertia" for scrolling through lists
- Did the HTC have a hard glass capacitance display or the more usual Palm-like pressure-sensing display? (IOW, did you use a stylus with the HTC?)
- Did the HTC have multiple-language keyboards?

and, of course, the full iPod capability, including widescreen video.

Did you try the Mac version of MS Office? It may actually be better, according to several people who've switched to it from running the Windows version with Parallels.


On Nov 27 12:45 PM Davis Gentry wrote:

> come on - what single capability on the iPhone was unique when the
> started selling them? ]]>
Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:36:47 -0500
Others:
- Light sensor that shuts off the backlight when you hold the iPhone to your head.
- Accelerometer that can be used not only for automatically shifting to landscape mode, but as a game controller, as well.
- Gestures, like "inertia" for scrolling through lists
- Did the HTC have a hard glass capacitance display or the more usual Palm-like pressure-sensing display? (IOW, did you use a stylus with the HTC?)
- Did the HTC have multiple-language keyboards?

and, of course, the full iPod capability, including widescreen video.

Did you try the Mac version of MS Office? It may actually be better, according to several people who've switched to it from running the Windows version with Parallels.


On Nov 27 12:45 PM Davis Gentry wrote:

> come on - what single capability on the iPhone was unique when the
> started selling them? ]]>
Google, Microsoft and News Corp. Fight While Consumers Stay Anchored to Free Content http://seekingalpha.com/article/175484-google-microsoft-and-news-corp-fight-while-consumers-stay-anchored-to-free-content?source=feed#comment-779966 779966 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 17:29:10 -0500 Apple's AT&T Deal: Setting the Record Straight http://seekingalpha.com/article/175166-apple-s-at-t-deal-setting-the-record-straight?source=feed#comment-777820 777820
On Nov 25 09:36 AM Whoa Nelly wrote:

> Apple will likely join VZW with an LTE iphone since ALL wireless
> carriers will use that technology for 4G.]]>
Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:00:37 -0500
On Nov 25 09:36 AM Whoa Nelly wrote:

> Apple will likely join VZW with an LTE iphone since ALL wireless
> carriers will use that technology for 4G.]]>
Why Microsoft's Google-Blocking Plan Won't Work http://seekingalpha.com/article/175090-why-microsoft-s-google-blocking-plan-won-t-work?source=feed#comment-777812 777812
I've not used Fox's subscription service, but plenty of others have presented a login page when linking to paid content.


On Nov 25 12:21 PM c smith wrote:

> You state that GOOG brings value to Murdoch instead of the other
> way around. What about the content which people are willing to pay
> for BEYOND a willingness to consume advertising? This content should
> continue to be paid for, and GOOG is stealing it. When you "link"
> to something that a large number of people already pay for, you don't
> add value, you subtract it. This is why Murdoch's idea has merit]]>
Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:55:14 -0500
I've not used Fox's subscription service, but plenty of others have presented a login page when linking to paid content.


On Nov 25 12:21 PM c smith wrote:

> You state that GOOG brings value to Murdoch instead of the other
> way around. What about the content which people are willing to pay
> for BEYOND a willingness to consume advertising? This content should
> continue to be paid for, and GOOG is stealing it. When you "link"
> to something that a large number of people already pay for, you don't
> add value, you subtract it. This is why Murdoch's idea has merit]]>
Trading Apple and Google: They Should Call It Winning http://seekingalpha.com/article/175109-trading-apple-and-google-they-should-call-it-winning?source=feed#comment-777806 777806
FWIW, a few chosen (i.e., "cherry-picked") examples aren't evidence. Apply this to 1,000 stocks and 8-10 randomly-chosen periods for each stock. (That would be easy to do with a good database and cleverl software.) If it works no more than about 50% of the time, it's useless, as a coin toss would be right 50% of the time.]]>
Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:50:27 -0500
FWIW, a few chosen (i.e., "cherry-picked") examples aren't evidence. Apply this to 1,000 stocks and 8-10 randomly-chosen periods for each stock. (That would be easy to do with a good database and cleverl software.) If it works no more than about 50% of the time, it's useless, as a coin toss would be right 50% of the time.]]>
Apple's AT&T Deal: Setting the Record Straight http://seekingalpha.com/article/175166-apple-s-at-t-deal-setting-the-record-straight?source=feed#comment-775823 775823 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:23:30 -0500 Apple's iPhone vs. RIM's BlackBerry: Who Wins on Comparison? http://seekingalpha.com/article/174765-apple-s-iphone-vs-rim-s-blackberry-who-wins-on-comparison?source=feed#comment-773489 773489
Another is that CDMA is used only in the US and a very few other places. Most of the world is GSM, like ATT. Apple would have had to design another phone, had it approved, and provide support for it, or would have had to build a dual-mode phone, which probably would be heavier and cost more.


On Nov 23 08:50 AM User 61758 wrote:

> Agree. Why Apple has not yet acknowledged AT&T's weakness and
> moved with Verizon or TMobile, is beyond me]]>
Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:50:31 -0500
Another is that CDMA is used only in the US and a very few other places. Most of the world is GSM, like ATT. Apple would have had to design another phone, had it approved, and provide support for it, or would have had to build a dual-mode phone, which probably would be heavier and cost more.


On Nov 23 08:50 AM User 61758 wrote:

> Agree. Why Apple has not yet acknowledged AT&T's weakness and
> moved with Verizon or TMobile, is beyond me]]>
Who Will Come Out Ahead from e-Book Success in College Classrooms? http://seekingalpha.com/article/174663-who-will-come-out-ahead-from-e-book-success-in-college-classrooms?source=feed#comment-771614 771614
There are many possibilities that could enhance learning--interactive charts, dynamic equations that the student can manipulate, VR-type diagrams, where you can rotate an object and zoom in and out, etc. However, the usage problems need to be solved. It might require a larger screen, roughly the size of a 15-17" laptop. In that case, one might as well use the laptop.

FWIW, I've read a lot of technical texts, both as a student at MIT (three degrees in mechanical engineering) and as an instructor in undergraduate and graduate engineering courses. ]]>
Sun, 22 Nov 2009 09:11:17 -0500
There are many possibilities that could enhance learning--interactive charts, dynamic equations that the student can manipulate, VR-type diagrams, where you can rotate an object and zoom in and out, etc. However, the usage problems need to be solved. It might require a larger screen, roughly the size of a 15-17" laptop. In that case, one might as well use the laptop.

FWIW, I've read a lot of technical texts, both as a student at MIT (three degrees in mechanical engineering) and as an instructor in undergraduate and graduate engineering courses. ]]>
Amazon: A Kindle Under Every Tree? http://seekingalpha.com/article/174605-amazon-a-kindle-under-every-tree?source=feed#comment-770446 770446
1. Larger, higher-resolution display, so it shows more of a page.
2. Cell-phone connection to get books, though getting them through Amazon's web site wouldn't be too inconvenient, as long as one has Wifi available.
3. Longer battery life, as the display itself doesn't require power unless you're changing a page.

A quibble: there is no such thing as an "iTouch," despite what some lazy columnists write. Apple sells the "iPod touch." It's like calling a car a Toyrolla.

Edit: as I recall, the Kindle also plays audiobooks.


On Nov 21 08:59 AM mollytjm wrote:

> why would anyone buy the Kindle for that price when they can get
> an iTouch that does the same thing and about a zillion other things?
> And the reading experience is terrific on it. audiobooks are wonderful
> too.
> i think this article must be an ad or something.]]>
Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:18:36 -0500
1. Larger, higher-resolution display, so it shows more of a page.
2. Cell-phone connection to get books, though getting them through Amazon's web site wouldn't be too inconvenient, as long as one has Wifi available.
3. Longer battery life, as the display itself doesn't require power unless you're changing a page.

A quibble: there is no such thing as an "iTouch," despite what some lazy columnists write. Apple sells the "iPod touch." It's like calling a car a Toyrolla.

Edit: as I recall, the Kindle also plays audiobooks.


On Nov 21 08:59 AM mollytjm wrote:

> why would anyone buy the Kindle for that price when they can get
> an iTouch that does the same thing and about a zillion other things?
> And the reading experience is terrific on it. audiobooks are wonderful
> too.
> i think this article must be an ad or something.]]>
A Worm in the Apple? http://seekingalpha.com/article/174588-a-worm-in-the-apple?source=feed#comment-769860 769860 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:20:01 -0500 Apple to Open 50 More Stores - Let's Be Careful, Steve http://seekingalpha.com/article/173492-apple-to-open-50-more-stores-let-s-be-careful-steve?source=feed#comment-762556 762556 " Manhattan is probably the only location with more than one store in the US ..."

No. Check the list. There are two in Tigard, OR, a southern suburb of Portland, plus one in downtown Portland. According to Google Maps, they are 4.9 miles/7 minutes apart by car. That is not as close as the Manhattan stores in space (the time may be similar, considering traffic, etc), but it's still very close, and Portland is a lot smaller than Manhattan. Both are in very large, upscale shopping centers.

Several large urban areas have more than one Apple Store--Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Las Vegas. Palo Alto has two. Arlington, VA, has two 3.5 mi apart.

An interesting tidbit: there is no Apple Store in Cupertino. The closest are probably in San Jose and Palo Alto.]]>
Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:05:11 -0500 " Manhattan is probably the only location with more than one store in the US ..."

No. Check the list. There are two in Tigard, OR, a southern suburb of Portland, plus one in downtown Portland. According to Google Maps, they are 4.9 miles/7 minutes apart by car. That is not as close as the Manhattan stores in space (the time may be similar, considering traffic, etc), but it's still very close, and Portland is a lot smaller than Manhattan. Both are in very large, upscale shopping centers.

Several large urban areas have more than one Apple Store--Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Las Vegas. Palo Alto has two. Arlington, VA, has two 3.5 mi apart.

An interesting tidbit: there is no Apple Store in Cupertino. The closest are probably in San Jose and Palo Alto.]]>
Apple to Open 50 More Stores - Let's Be Careful, Steve http://seekingalpha.com/article/173492-apple-to-open-50-more-stores-let-s-be-careful-steve?source=feed#comment-761624 761624
They can--and do--train personnel, well in advance of opening a store. Many said that Apple couldn't staff 20 stores, much less 200. Find the article that said that the "selection rate" for the latest NYC store was lower than Harvard's admission rate--under 10%. Sounds like they won't have much trouble staffing.

They may decrease revenue/sq ft, but, if the total revenue and profit goes up, where's the problem? ]]>
Mon, 16 Nov 2009 06:37:49 -0500
They can--and do--train personnel, well in advance of opening a store. Many said that Apple couldn't staff 20 stores, much less 200. Find the article that said that the "selection rate" for the latest NYC store was lower than Harvard's admission rate--under 10%. Sounds like they won't have much trouble staffing.

They may decrease revenue/sq ft, but, if the total revenue and profit goes up, where's the problem? ]]>
While Rivals Jockey for Market Share, Apple Bathes in Profits http://seekingalpha.com/article/172765-while-rivals-jockey-for-market-share-apple-bathes-in-profits?source=feed#comment-756871 756871

On Nov 12 08:15 AM SusanGrisanti wrote:

> Apple has had 'First To Market' Advantage for decades. When a good
> product is consistent & first to market it usually has to do
> less to stay on top.]]>
Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:06:59 -0500

On Nov 12 08:15 AM SusanGrisanti wrote:

> Apple has had 'First To Market' Advantage for decades. When a good
> product is consistent & first to market it usually has to do
> less to stay on top.]]>
Expect Apple's December Earnings to Grow 37% http://seekingalpha.com/article/172433-expect-apple-s-december-earnings-to-grow-37?source=feed#comment-754307 754307

On Nov 10 11:39 AM Advill wrote:

> A review of your numbers based in the DISASTER that Apple is facing
> in China nowdays is important.
>
> Is incredible how they losed ground before the chinese realities,
> the China team of Apple is not getting any result.]]>
Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:17:39 -0500

On Nov 10 11:39 AM Advill wrote:

> A review of your numbers based in the DISASTER that Apple is facing
> in China nowdays is important.
>
> Is incredible how they losed ground before the chinese realities,
> the China team of Apple is not getting any result.]]>
Maybe the Droid Launch Wasn't So Bad After All http://seekingalpha.com/article/172046-maybe-the-droid-launch-wasn-t-so-bad-after-all?source=feed#comment-752727 752727
apple.com/batterie...

The iPhone will hold up to 80% charge through at least 400 charge cycles. If you get AppleCare with the iPhone, Apple will replace the battery free during the 3-year period of AppleCare if the battery capacity goes below 50%. If the iPhone is out of warranty, the battery can be replaced for $79 + $6.95 shipping.

2. It doesn't matter what the Droid can do. Verizon's CDMA network can't handle simultaneous voice and data. One probably can do simultaneous data and voice if one is also connected via WiFi. Some CDMA phones will stop Internet data traffic when a call comes in. Some may be able to put a call on "hold" (in effect), use the web, then go back to the call. That's not the same as simultaneous voice and data. You can't talk on the phone WHILE you are using the browser.

3. Your comment about TDMA being "analog technology" is way off the mark. It's purely digital. See:

searchmobilecomputing....

4. Re: Navigation: It's free NOW. Any solid guarantee that it will remain so? Verizon likes to charge extra for everything. Also, I'm not sure that I'd want to use my phone for in-car navigation.

How much do you want to bet that Google will make an iPhone app that does everything that the Droid does? It would be in Google's interest, as they want the ad revenue.

On top of that, Apple bought a mapping company. They may well add their own built-in navigation application shortly.

5. The iPhone doesn't "convert" music to another format. I don't know where you got that idea. iTunes (and the iPods and iPhones) can play AAC, MP3, and other formats, as is. Today, all of the iTunes Store music is in AAC (a superior format to MP3, but one that can be played on nearly any "MP3" player, including the Zune, for example), but it is not "protected." You can easily add MP3s from, say, Amazon, to the iTunes library and it does NOT change their format. I've done that many times.

It's easy to use music from your iTunes library on a non-Apple device--you just can't do it with the iTunes application. There are other applications that will load music from your iTunes library (an .xml file, that's all) to a phone or other MP3 player.

For further "proof," remember that, at one time, the Palm Pre could be synced with iTunes, until Apple updated iTunes to prevent that.

Also, iTunes IS free.

On Nov 09 06:20 AM Droidum wrote:

> GSlusher... I understand your comment, but you may have gotten a
> few things wrong. The battery issue for instance, is not necessarily
> for a change in the battery today, but for when the inevitable happens
> and the battery can no longer hold a decent charge. With the iPhone,
> you basically have to buy a new phone. Not a major issue for most,
> but something to think about... Now for the technology issue.. the
> Droid does data and voice simultaneously. CDMA is a superior technology
> to GSM, but GSM was first, much like the iPhone is first and took
> off around the world because of it. CDMA is digital, therefore you
> have a crisper quality call, where GSM uses TDMA technology, basically
> analog technology and can be choppy and produce static on the line.
> In addition, EVDO is how the data link is run. Two separate technologies
> integrated into one system.
>
> Enough about the technology though... lets talk about why the Motorola/Google/Verizon
> phone is better. Navigation to start... with the iPhone, you have
> to pay for the service and many people do. It's free with the Droid
> as you know. The Droid has a bigger screen with better resolution...
> the Droid is customizable with widgets... I could go on, but you
> get the point.
>
> The iPhone has the music player, but if you give it a few months,
> once Google comes out with their open source music player, the competition
> will really open up. Why then would anyone stay latched to the iPhone
> where all of your music gets converted to their format and you have
> to pull your teeth out to get it to play on anything else… maybe
> Apple can get ahead of the curve and change that now before Google
> stomps all over them with the free one.]]>
Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:23:47 -0500
apple.com/batterie...

The iPhone will hold up to 80% charge through at least 400 charge cycles. If you get AppleCare with the iPhone, Apple will replace the battery free during the 3-year period of AppleCare if the battery capacity goes below 50%. If the iPhone is out of warranty, the battery can be replaced for $79 + $6.95 shipping.

2. It doesn't matter what the Droid can do. Verizon's CDMA network can't handle simultaneous voice and data. One probably can do simultaneous data and voice if one is also connected via WiFi. Some CDMA phones will stop Internet data traffic when a call comes in. Some may be able to put a call on "hold" (in effect), use the web, then go back to the call. That's not the same as simultaneous voice and data. You can't talk on the phone WHILE you are using the browser.

3. Your comment about TDMA being "analog technology" is way off the mark. It's purely digital. See:

searchmobilecomputing....

4. Re: Navigation: It's free NOW. Any solid guarantee that it will remain so? Verizon likes to charge extra for everything. Also, I'm not sure that I'd want to use my phone for in-car navigation.

How much do you want to bet that Google will make an iPhone app that does everything that the Droid does? It would be in Google's interest, as they want the ad revenue.

On top of that, Apple bought a mapping company. They may well add their own built-in navigation application shortly.

5. The iPhone doesn't "convert" music to another format. I don't know where you got that idea. iTunes (and the iPods and iPhones) can play AAC, MP3, and other formats, as is. Today, all of the iTunes Store music is in AAC (a superior format to MP3, but one that can be played on nearly any "MP3" player, including the Zune, for example), but it is not "protected." You can easily add MP3s from, say, Amazon, to the iTunes library and it does NOT change their format. I've done that many times.

It's easy to use music from your iTunes library on a non-Apple device--you just can't do it with the iTunes application. There are other applications that will load music from your iTunes library (an .xml file, that's all) to a phone or other MP3 player.

For further "proof," remember that, at one time, the Palm Pre could be synced with iTunes, until Apple updated iTunes to prevent that.

Also, iTunes IS free.

On Nov 09 06:20 AM Droidum wrote:

> GSlusher... I understand your comment, but you may have gotten a
> few things wrong. The battery issue for instance, is not necessarily
> for a change in the battery today, but for when the inevitable happens
> and the battery can no longer hold a decent charge. With the iPhone,
> you basically have to buy a new phone. Not a major issue for most,
> but something to think about... Now for the technology issue.. the
> Droid does data and voice simultaneously. CDMA is a superior technology
> to GSM, but GSM was first, much like the iPhone is first and took
> off around the world because of it. CDMA is digital, therefore you
> have a crisper quality call, where GSM uses TDMA technology, basically
> analog technology and can be choppy and produce static on the line.
> In addition, EVDO is how the data link is run. Two separate technologies
> integrated into one system.
>
> Enough about the technology though... lets talk about why the Motorola/Google/Verizon
> phone is better. Navigation to start... with the iPhone, you have
> to pay for the service and many people do. It's free with the Droid
> as you know. The Droid has a bigger screen with better resolution...
> the Droid is customizable with widgets... I could go on, but you
> get the point.
>
> The iPhone has the music player, but if you give it a few months,
> once Google comes out with their open source music player, the competition
> will really open up. Why then would anyone stay latched to the iPhone
> where all of your music gets converted to their format and you have
> to pull your teeth out to get it to play on anything else… maybe
> Apple can get ahead of the curve and change that now before Google
> stomps all over them with the free one.]]>
What's Wrong with the Gaming Industry? http://seekingalpha.com/article/172102-what-s-wrong-with-the-gaming-industry?source=feed#comment-752014 752014
On Nov 09 05:04 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> marshal law ---> martial law ---> marital law]]>
Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:36:29 -0500
On Nov 09 05:04 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> marshal law ---> martial law ---> marital law]]>
Congratulations to Apple's Steve Jobs, Fortune's CEO of the Decade http://seekingalpha.com/article/171797-congratulations-to-apple-s-steve-jobs-fortune-s-ceo-of-the-decade?source=feed#comment-751895 751895
Stephen Jay Gould, among others, pointed out that, in the universe, there's something called "regression to the mean." In the long run, short term fluctuations tend to average out. The athletes on the SI cover have usually been having an unusually good record recently, far above their average performance. Thus, it's likely that their performance will decline sometime in the (near) future. (It's not just that there's nowhere to go but down.)

There's also no definition of the timing of the SI cover jinx--how long it takes to come to fruition. It's been said to be a week, a month, 6 months, even an entire season. If you wait long enough, any team or athlete (or any stock!) will have a downturn.


On Nov 06 10:22 AM logicalthought wrote:

> Steve Jobs is a brilliant guy and Apple makes fabulously creative
> products (and this is not a short-term call because I don't follow
> the company at all), but based on the "Sports Illustrated cover jinx
> principle", it's probably time to sell the stock. For those who've
> never heard of this, the rationale is simple: It's an extremely competitive
> world out there, and once you're universally recognized as being
> on top of it, there's nowhere to go but down.]]>
Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:09:31 -0500
Stephen Jay Gould, among others, pointed out that, in the universe, there's something called "regression to the mean." In the long run, short term fluctuations tend to average out. The athletes on the SI cover have usually been having an unusually good record recently, far above their average performance. Thus, it's likely that their performance will decline sometime in the (near) future. (It's not just that there's nowhere to go but down.)

There's also no definition of the timing of the SI cover jinx--how long it takes to come to fruition. It's been said to be a week, a month, 6 months, even an entire season. If you wait long enough, any team or athlete (or any stock!) will have a downturn.


On Nov 06 10:22 AM logicalthought wrote:

> Steve Jobs is a brilliant guy and Apple makes fabulously creative
> products (and this is not a short-term call because I don't follow
> the company at all), but based on the "Sports Illustrated cover jinx
> principle", it's probably time to sell the stock. For those who've
> never heard of this, the rationale is simple: It's an extremely competitive
> world out there, and once you're universally recognized as being
> on top of it, there's nowhere to go but down.]]>
Maybe the Droid Launch Wasn't So Bad After All http://seekingalpha.com/article/172046-maybe-the-droid-launch-wasn-t-so-bad-after-all?source=feed#comment-751754 751754
However, I hope that the Droid sells well. Competition helps keep Apple pumping out improvements, though not the way many people think. If Apple based its current or next-year improvements on the Droid, they'd be in the same position as those desperately trying to catch up with the iPhone. Apple has to ANTICIPATE what its competitors WILL do, not REACT to what they HAVE done. (The Wayne Gretzky cliche comes to mind.) Apple has to assume that some companies will come out with very good phones, in some case beating the iPhone in some ways, though not the ways so many simplistic "analysts" harp on, like physical keyboards and user-replaceable batteries. (Side note: when the iPhone first came out, the non-replaceable battery was a "big deal" in the press. I asked people I knew who had an advanced phone two questions: 1) Can you replace your phone's battery? and 2) Do you have a spare battery? If so, do you carry it around with you? The surprise was that more than half didn't even know if they could replace the battery. Many assumed that they could, but didn't know how to do it. Only 3 of the 50+ I asked had an extra battery and only one carried it with her. She showed me by changing the battery, but the extra battery wasn't charged.)

Apparently, Apple was right that a user-replaceable battery wouldn't be a big issue for most people. (If it's important to YOU, then get a phone with one. 30+ million buyers apparently didn't care.) A company can lose its direction AND spend a lot of money chasing the needs/desires of that last segment of potential buyers, with negligible returns. (That's also why Apple hasn't--and probably won't--get into the "netbook" business--they don't need it.)

Instead, Apple has concentrated on the user experience, not the phone specs. Little things like the sensor that turns off the screen when you put the phone to your ear, the intelligent auto-correction that adapts to the user, the consistent interface (a big problem with Palm OS software for my TX), even the form factor (thin, rounded for comfort) are examples. Thus, to me, it will be any enhancements to the user experience in the Droid that will have an effect on Apple's plans, not the hardware.

I have a feeling that Apple was not all that serious about partnering with Verizon because of CDMA. They would have had to make two iPhones--CDMA for the US and GSM for nearly every other country. That increases R&D, manufacturing and support costs. Add to that the inherent limitations of CDMA (e.g.,no simultaneous voice & data, so you can't access the Internet while on a phone call) and Apple wouldn't be likely to go that route--not then and not now. When Verizon implements a LTE network over a significant area, then Apple may come out with an LTE iPhone.

It will be interesting to see how many Droids are sold to people who were not already Verizon subscribers. (A high percentage of iPhone sales are to "switchers.") ]]>
Sun, 08 Nov 2009 21:06:10 -0500
However, I hope that the Droid sells well. Competition helps keep Apple pumping out improvements, though not the way many people think. If Apple based its current or next-year improvements on the Droid, they'd be in the same position as those desperately trying to catch up with the iPhone. Apple has to ANTICIPATE what its competitors WILL do, not REACT to what they HAVE done. (The Wayne Gretzky cliche comes to mind.) Apple has to assume that some companies will come out with very good phones, in some case beating the iPhone in some ways, though not the ways so many simplistic "analysts" harp on, like physical keyboards and user-replaceable batteries. (Side note: when the iPhone first came out, the non-replaceable battery was a "big deal" in the press. I asked people I knew who had an advanced phone two questions: 1) Can you replace your phone's battery? and 2) Do you have a spare battery? If so, do you carry it around with you? The surprise was that more than half didn't even know if they could replace the battery. Many assumed that they could, but didn't know how to do it. Only 3 of the 50+ I asked had an extra battery and only one carried it with her. She showed me by changing the battery, but the extra battery wasn't charged.)

Apparently, Apple was right that a user-replaceable battery wouldn't be a big issue for most people. (If it's important to YOU, then get a phone with one. 30+ million buyers apparently didn't care.) A company can lose its direction AND spend a lot of money chasing the needs/desires of that last segment of potential buyers, with negligible returns. (That's also why Apple hasn't--and probably won't--get into the "netbook" business--they don't need it.)

Instead, Apple has concentrated on the user experience, not the phone specs. Little things like the sensor that turns off the screen when you put the phone to your ear, the intelligent auto-correction that adapts to the user, the consistent interface (a big problem with Palm OS software for my TX), even the form factor (thin, rounded for comfort) are examples. Thus, to me, it will be any enhancements to the user experience in the Droid that will have an effect on Apple's plans, not the hardware.

I have a feeling that Apple was not all that serious about partnering with Verizon because of CDMA. They would have had to make two iPhones--CDMA for the US and GSM for nearly every other country. That increases R&D, manufacturing and support costs. Add to that the inherent limitations of CDMA (e.g.,no simultaneous voice & data, so you can't access the Internet while on a phone call) and Apple wouldn't be likely to go that route--not then and not now. When Verizon implements a LTE network over a significant area, then Apple may come out with an LTE iPhone.

It will be interesting to see how many Droids are sold to people who were not already Verizon subscribers. (A high percentage of iPhone sales are to "switchers.") ]]>
Does Steve Jobs Deserve Fortune's "CEO of the Decade" Award? http://seekingalpha.com/article/171715-does-steve-jobs-deserve-fortune-s-ceo-of-the-decade-award?source=feed#comment-751369 751369
On Nov 06 08:48 PM None-Too-Great Hits wrote:

> I too have often wondered how the Stanford officials on the podium
> felt when Steve mentioned that he had never graduated from college
> himself.]]>
Sun, 08 Nov 2009 18:48:30 -0500
On Nov 06 08:48 PM None-Too-Great Hits wrote:

> I too have often wondered how the Stanford officials on the podium
> felt when Steve mentioned that he had never graduated from college
> himself.]]>
Whose Notebook PC Business Is Most Valuable? http://seekingalpha.com/article/171892-whose-notebook-pc-business-is-most-valuable?source=feed#comment-751363 751363
On Nov 08 09:43 AM dmeharc wrote:

> our chip works with absolute certainty.]]>
Sun, 08 Nov 2009 18:40:19 -0500
On Nov 08 09:43 AM dmeharc wrote:

> our chip works with absolute certainty.]]>
How Apple and iPhone Blew It in China http://seekingalpha.com/article/172010-how-apple-and-iphone-blew-it-in-china?source=feed#comment-751357 751357
On Nov 08 05:40 PM Advill wrote:

> Americentric is not working, your analysis is wrong.]]>
Sun, 08 Nov 2009 18:33:30 -0500
On Nov 08 05:40 PM Advill wrote:

> Americentric is not working, your analysis is wrong.]]>
Motorola's Droid Comes in Peace - For Now http://seekingalpha.com/article/171908-motorola-s-droid-comes-in-peace-for-now?source=feed#comment-750383 750383

On Nov 07 05:31 AM kbear2 wrote:

> Regarding the CDMA/GSM issue, there are phones that can work on either
> system. The HTC TouchPro2 has capabilities built in for both but
> the GSM has been disabled by firmware in order to avoid FCC testing.
> It would be very easy for Apple to include dual use capability.]]>
Sun, 08 Nov 2009 01:45:01 -0500

On Nov 07 05:31 AM kbear2 wrote:

> Regarding the CDMA/GSM issue, there are phones that can work on either
> system. The HTC TouchPro2 has capabilities built in for both but
> the GSM has been disabled by firmware in order to avoid FCC testing.
> It would be very easy for Apple to include dual use capability.]]>
Quest for the Droid Crowds: Not So Epic http://seekingalpha.com/article/171957-quest-for-the-droid-crowds-not-so-epic?source=feed#comment-749865 749865
Once you have the results of the experiment, imagine that the person on the other end was 1) your spouse/significant other/partner; 2) your boss; 3) your most important client; 4) your mother. Suppose 1) your spousigothpartner wanted the address of a restaurant where you will meet at lunch--a restaurant you've never been to; 2) your boss wanted some data from a report that you have on the company's network, but not on the Droid; 3) your client wanted information on a product or service, information that's on the company's private web site, but not on the Droid; 4) your mother said that she had just emailed you a photo of your new nephew and wanted to know if you think he's as adorable as she does--she's waiting in her usual impatient way and wants an answer right now.
]]>
Sat, 07 Nov 2009 12:02:02 -0500
Once you have the results of the experiment, imagine that the person on the other end was 1) your spouse/significant other/partner; 2) your boss; 3) your most important client; 4) your mother. Suppose 1) your spousigothpartner wanted the address of a restaurant where you will meet at lunch--a restaurant you've never been to; 2) your boss wanted some data from a report that you have on the company's network, but not on the Droid; 3) your client wanted information on a product or service, information that's on the company's private web site, but not on the Droid; 4) your mother said that she had just emailed you a photo of your new nephew and wanted to know if you think he's as adorable as she does--she's waiting in her usual impatient way and wants an answer right now.
]]>
Apple's App Store Numbers Continue to Amaze http://seekingalpha.com/article/171439-apple-s-app-store-numbers-continue-to-amaze?source=feed#comment-746341 746341 AAPL) had been making MP3 tracks available for a few years on the iStore."

No, it hadn't, as there is and never was anything called "iStore." It was originally, "iTunes Music Store," then became iTunes Store. That is sloppy writing that has no place in professional journalism.

I wonder if the author also calls the iPod touch the "iTouch"?

It's fairly trivial when a layman or commentor uses those terms, but a very different situation when a professional journalist does it.]]>
Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:51:29 -0500 AAPL) had been making MP3 tracks available for a few years on the iStore."

No, it hadn't, as there is and never was anything called "iStore." It was originally, "iTunes Music Store," then became iTunes Store. That is sloppy writing that has no place in professional journalism.

I wonder if the author also calls the iPod touch the "iTouch"?

It's fairly trivial when a layman or commentor uses those terms, but a very different situation when a professional journalist does it.]]>
Apples to Apples: Will History Repeat Itself as Android Gains on the iPhone? http://seekingalpha.com/article/170801-apples-to-apples-will-history-repeat-itself-as-android-gains-on-the-iphone?source=feed#comment-746045 746045
1. What will happen when a Droid user is on a call with her boss or a very important client and need to check something on the company's web site. As I understand it, she will have to terminate the call in order to get the information, as Verizon's CDMA network cannot handle voice and data simultaneously. Will her boss be pleased? Will the client stick with her? In both cases, her own choice led to the difficulty. (The one person I know who bought a Pre is ready to ditch it and get another phone--probably an iPhone--for this very reason.)

2. What will happen when the first virus strikes Android phones? "Open source" could equate to "virus heaven." Combine that with little or no control of applications and there may be a major disaster just waiting to happen. It could make the problems with the Sidekick look benign.

3. What will happen if the Android phones start crashing because of poorly-designed apps, as well as malware? The Treo was plagued by "problem" applications that could crash the phone, even if they weren't "viruses." ("Multitasking" in the sense that Android uses it could make the probability of crashing higher.)

4. One reason that Verizon seems to have the "better" network may be that they don't have to support the data load that ATT does. Will their system stand up to a much greater data load?

]]>
Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:48:40 -0500
1. What will happen when a Droid user is on a call with her boss or a very important client and need to check something on the company's web site. As I understand it, she will have to terminate the call in order to get the information, as Verizon's CDMA network cannot handle voice and data simultaneously. Will her boss be pleased? Will the client stick with her? In both cases, her own choice led to the difficulty. (The one person I know who bought a Pre is ready to ditch it and get another phone--probably an iPhone--for this very reason.)

2. What will happen when the first virus strikes Android phones? "Open source" could equate to "virus heaven." Combine that with little or no control of applications and there may be a major disaster just waiting to happen. It could make the problems with the Sidekick look benign.

3. What will happen if the Android phones start crashing because of poorly-designed apps, as well as malware? The Treo was plagued by "problem" applications that could crash the phone, even if they weren't "viruses." ("Multitasking" in the sense that Android uses it could make the probability of crashing higher.)

4. One reason that Verizon seems to have the "better" network may be that they don't have to support the data load that ATT does. Will their system stand up to a much greater data load?

]]>
Google Should Make Apple Beg for Maps Navigation http://seekingalpha.com/article/169819-google-should-make-apple-beg-for-maps-navigation?source=feed#comment-737418 737418
On top of that, I wouldn't be so sanguine about Streetview. I've yet to find it to be more accurate than 200 feet. I've always had to move the view manually to find the correct address. Besides, Streetview would be useless while driving--the screen is too small and it would require looking away from the road. In some states, using a handheld device while driving can get you arrested--a nice thing if you like to pay fines and higher insurance premiums.]]>
Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:16:31 -0400
On top of that, I wouldn't be so sanguine about Streetview. I've yet to find it to be more accurate than 200 feet. I've always had to move the view manually to find the correct address. Besides, Streetview would be useless while driving--the screen is too small and it would require looking away from the road. In some states, using a handheld device while driving can get you arrested--a nice thing if you like to pay fines and higher insurance premiums.]]>
Google's Android vs. Apple: History Repeats Itself http://seekingalpha.com/article/169727-google-s-android-vs-apple-history-repeats-itself?source=feed#comment-735276 735276 Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:09:12 -0400