GSlusher

Google's Android vs. Apple: History Repeats Itself

Re: Apple's "closed" OS & platform
There's a lot of hype about "open" systems, but, lest we forget, Windows is NOT "open," yet 90+% of computers run it. What happens with some "open" systems can best be demonstrated by the older Palm devices. There was no control, no certification, no checking. The result was that some applications routinely crashed the system. A friend had a Treo (don't know which, but it wasn't a Windows Mobile version). He installed a game and, within a day, the Treo started crashing DURING CALLS--and the game was NOT running. I had a game on my Palm TX that would turn the TX back ON if I turned it off while the game is showing. The TX looks like it turns off, but, 5-10 seconds later, it turns back on. It caused the battery to run down dozens of times before I noticed the behavior. (I keep the TX in a metal case and would shut the case after turning it off.) I contacted Palm, who told me it wasn't their problem. I finally contacted the developer, who told me to go p*ss up a rope. He wasn't supporting the game any more.

That's the beauty of an "open" system: you can get hosed and even pay for the privilege, and no one will accept responsibility.

The iPhone's Next Carrier Is Likely T-Mobile, Not Verizon

Ah, at last, a commentator who may know something about physical reality, though you didn't specifically address it. Verizon & Sprint use CDMA. CDMA is incompatible with the current iPhone, which uses GSM. GSM is used by ATT, T-Mobile, and most cell-phone carriers in the rest of the world. That's probably why Apple decided to go with GSM & ATT--it was the most efficient way to make the iPhone marketable worldwide.

Apple would have to design & get approval for a CDMA phone. IF, as some suggest, they were going to offer a phone through Verizon next June, they would have to be in that process now.

Apple would also have to support two different technologies, then add another when LTE is rolled out. Certainly, Nokia and others do this now, but they have a built-in support base, plus they hand off a lot of tech support to the carriers.

Apple's AT&T Deal: Setting the Record Straight

Typical financial commentary that ignores physical reality. Apple would need to design & get approval for a DIFFERENT iPhone to use on Verizon's CDMA network, then support it. Why would they, when CDMA is on the way out and is used only in the US and a smattering of other countries? It would also reduce the iPhone's functionality: the user could not access email or the web while on a call, as CDMA cannot handle voice & data simultaneously. (E.g., you can't access Google Maps data while on a call with the Droid.)

Apple to Open 50 More Stores - Let's Be Careful, Steve

Apple takes a long-range view of the stores. Each represents a significant investment and I expect that they don't make a move precipitously. The process doesn't take a couple of months but several years--planning, developing, permitting, construction all take time. (Especially if a store is not in a mall.)

They can--and do--train personnel, well in advance of opening a store. Many said that Apple couldn't staff 20 stores, much less 200. Find the article that said that the "selection rate" for the latest NYC store was lower than Harvard's admission rate--under 10%. Sounds like they won't have much trouble staffing.

They may decrease revenue/sq ft, but, if the total revenue and profit goes up, where's the problem?

Quest for the Droid Crowds: Not So Epic

Congrats on your new Droid! Try a little experiment: make a call, then check something on the web, or send or receive email, while you're on the call.

Once you have the results of the experiment, imagine that the person on the other end was 1) your spouse/significant other/partner; 2) your boss; 3) your most important client; 4) your mother. Suppose 1) your spousigothpartner wanted the address of a restaurant where you will meet at lunch--a restaurant you've never been to; 2) your boss wanted some data from a report that you have on the company's network, but not on the Droid; 3) your client wanted information on a product or service, information that's on the company's private web site, but not on the Droid; 4) your mother said that she had just emailed you a photo of your new nephew and wanted to know if you think he's as adorable as she does--she's waiting in her usual impatient way and wants an answer right now.

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

One more question for the author and other Android users: can you easily sync and backup all your data--contacts, calendars, etc--to your OWN desktop or laptop--not a Microsoft Exchange server--every day? Does your Android depend upon "cloud" storage of data, like the Sidekick did? (I used the past tense on purpose.) Can you remotely wipe your Android phone if it's lost or stolen, then, if it's found or returned, put everything back as it was in one step?

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

A question for the author, if you're using your Android phone on Sprint or Verizon: If you're on a call, can you access the internet or send/receive email at the same time, without quitting the call?

Microsoft vs. Apple - Which Is Worth More?

This is supposed to be a discussion about stocks, right? Do you (the author) "believe in" a "free market"? (I really don't, but that's not the question.) Let's see what the so-called "free market" has said about the two companies.

MSFT:
Last close: $23.86
1 year ago: $26.12
2 years ago: $29.49

Thus, MSFT's price dropped 8.7% in the last year and 19% in two years.

AAPL:
Last close: $170.31
1 year ago: $157.92
2 years ago: $137.20

So, AAPL's price went UP 7.8% in the last year and UP 24% in two years. I'm not an economist (my MIT degrees are all in mechanical engineering), nor an MBA, CPA, CFA, PQR, STU, or anything else, much less an "analyst." However, if one believes in "the market," it would seem that selfsame "market" is saying (and not subtly!) that MSFT is on the way down.

Four Reasons to Avoid Apple

"In our opinion, the iPod story is gone - if you want an iPod, you buy an iPhone, it is as simple as that."
That's silly. Many people, including kids, want a "traditional" music player. Why pay the monthly fees if you don't need the iPhone's data service?

Apple reported selling 5.2 million iPhones, but 10.2 million iPods--nearly TWICE as many. iPod sales were down 7% year-over-year, probably less than most electronics devices.

Android and Apple: Smartphones Require Smart Strategy

"Anyone can make an Android handset ..."

That's a negative feature, in that every manufacturer can make a substantially different Android handset with a MODIFIED OS and with different versions of the OS that may or may not be upgradeable. On top of that, they vary in buttons, hardware features, radios, etc. That makes it had for developers to ensure that their software will work on all Android handsets. What works on a Motorola handset may not work the same on a HTC handset. (What works on one HTC handset may not even work the same on another HTC handset.)

This was the situation in the PC world until Microsoft essentially imposed standard hardware requirements--I think that it was with Windows 95. In PC gaming those many years ago, a game developer would have to worry about different video cards as well as different processors.

Daniel Eran Dilger of Roughly Drafted had written extensively about the problem with Android's fragmentation.

Maybe the Droid Launch Wasn't So Bad After All

First, I'm a long-time (17 years) Mac user and an Apple user for even longer (25 years). I own a few shares of AAPL--my only "individual" stock--other holdings are all mutual funds. I hope to get an iPhone, maybe next year. (It was set back by losing almost $7K of photo gear to theft. I won't replace all of that, but do need enough to push back buying the iPhone--not the cost of the phone, but the service.)

However, I hope that the Droid sells well. Competition helps keep Apple pumping out improvements, though not the way many people think. If Apple based its current or next-year improvements on the Droid, they'd be in the same position as those desperately trying to catch up with the iPhone. Apple has to ANTICIPATE what its competitors WILL do, not REACT to what they HAVE done. (The Wayne Gretzky cliche comes to mind.) Apple has to assume that some companies will come out with very good phones, in some case beating the iPhone in some ways, though not the ways so many simplistic "analysts" harp on, like physical keyboards and user-replaceable batteries. (Side note: when the iPhone first came out, the non-replaceable battery was a "big deal" in the press. I asked people I knew who had an advanced phone two questions: 1) Can you replace your phone's battery? and 2) Do you have a spare battery? If so, do you carry it around with you? The surprise was that more than half didn't even know if they could replace the battery. Many assumed that they could, but didn't know how to do it. Only 3 of the 50+ I asked had an extra battery and only one carried it with her. She showed me by changing the battery, but the extra battery wasn't charged.)

Apparently, Apple was right that a user-replaceable battery wouldn't be a big issue for most people. (If it's important to YOU, then get a phone with one. 30+ million buyers apparently didn't care.) A company can lose its direction AND spend a lot of money chasing the needs/desires of that last segment of potential buyers, with negligible returns. (That's also why Apple hasn't--and probably won't--get into the "netbook" business--they don't need it.)

Instead, Apple has concentrated on the user experience, not the phone specs. Little things like the sensor that turns off the screen when you put the phone to your ear, the intelligent auto-correction that adapts to the user, the consistent interface (a big problem with Palm OS software for my TX), even the form factor (thin, rounded for comfort) are examples. Thus, to me, it will be any enhancements to the user experience in the Droid that will have an effect on Apple's plans, not the hardware.

I have a feeling that Apple was not all that serious about partnering with Verizon because of CDMA. They would have had to make two iPhones--CDMA for the US and GSM for nearly every other country. That increases R&D, manufacturing and support costs. Add to that the inherent limitations of CDMA (e.g.,no simultaneous voice & data, so you can't access the Internet while on a phone call) and Apple wouldn't be likely to go that route--not then and not now. When Verizon implements a LTE network over a significant area, then Apple may come out with an LTE iPhone.

It will be interesting to see how many Droids are sold to people who were not already Verizon subscribers. (A high percentage of iPhone sales are to "switchers.")

Apple: New iPhone Rumors Heat Up

On Apr 09 11:57 AM Techtrader10 wrote:

> Interesting thoughts Steve. I agree with you that the iPod market
> is saturated. My fanatical friends, that usually buy anything Apple
> puts out, didn't even mention the new model.

Shows the danger of using personal anecdotes as a source of data. Instead, check Amazon's "Bestselling" list for Electronics (not just MP3 players), as of right now:

1. Kindle 2
2. Flip camcorder
3. Western Digital portable HD
*4. iPod touch 8GB
5. Canon SD1100IS camera
6. Garmin Nüvi 760 GPS
7. Magellan Maestro 4250 GPS
8. Logitech webcam
9. Garmin Nüvi 255W GPS
*10. iPod Classic 120GB
*11. iPod touch 16GB
12. Flip camcorder
13. Western Digital HD
14. Garmin Nüvi 360 GPS
*15. iPod Nano 8GB black
16. Garmin Forerunner GPS
17. Western Digital portable HD
18. Linksys router
19. Canon SD880IS camera
20. Western Digital HD (no enclosure)
*21. iPod touch 32GB

Take out the computer hardware and it's:
- Kindle: 1
- Flip: 2, 10
- iPod: 3, 8, 9, 12
- cameras: 4, 14, 15
- GPS: 5, 6, 7, 11, 13

If one looks at MP3 players, alone:

- iPod: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 25
- Sansa: 11, 20, 21
- Zune: 17
- Pyrus: 24

Doesn't look like a "saturated market" to me. The change from a year or so ago is how high up the list the more expensive models (touch & Classic) are. (That does NOT say that they outsell the Nanos, overall, as Amazon tracks by SKU, so each color and size of the Nano is considered a separate item.)

Why I Would Not Bet on iPhone over Android

"Eventually as people became comfortable with the PC World, they didn't want to be controlled anymore."

As long as it Windows, controlled by an illegal monopoly. If people didn't want to be "controlled," Windows would have a 5% market share.

"Even the least savvy technical users wanted more choice in hardware and applications as their comfort level rose."

Choice in most PCs is like painting Corollas 118 colors, some with stripes, some with flames, some not--and calling them different models.

There's also a problem with the paradox of choice: too many "choices" with little difference among them leads to paralysis in the buyer/user and constant second thoughts. Consider buying a birthday card. With 500 birthday cards to choose from, you'll spend a lot more time making the choice, with almost surely no added value. See Barry Schwartz's talk on TED:

www.ted.com/index.php/...

I've seen the same thing with people buying PCs and digital cameras. The salespeople often don't help by going into excruciating detail and using technical jargon.

Apple Again Leads Sentiment for Technology, But HP, Amazon and Google Gain Ground

Tom B. wrote : "AMZN is a one-trick pony stock, already well past "nose-bleed" altitudes."

I guess, if you call selling nearly every non-perishable item except cars and major appliances "one-trick." I probably missed your intended meaning, though.

"Win 7 is somewhat less inadequate than Vista ..."

That has to be the best description I've read. I may steal .... er, "borrow" the phrase.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Something to consider: Apple doesn't have to take 30% or 50% market share of PCs. If they take another 9%, they will have doubled their sales, probably more. Given that Macs cost more than generic PCs, that would be a huge increase in revenue and earnings, much more than the revenue lost to HP, Dell, Acer, etc. If, at the same time, Apple doubles sales of the iPhone (a possibility, especially with new markets) and iPod sales continue to shift toward the iPod touch from the Nano (the Classic isn't a great seller)--i.e., toward higher ASP, then Apple's revenue and earnings might almost double.