Seeking Alpha

Doc 224899

Doc 224899
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Doc 224899's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Consequences Of The Fed Rate Hike - Cramer's Mad Money (6/12/15) [View article]
    In 2007 and 2008 Cramer was cautioning investors not to cash out, long after a death spiral trend had been established, as though he believed that any other message to the trading public would exacerbate the falling knife decline in equities. Banks were tottering on the brink. Investors lost half of their total net worth, or more.

    Those who recognized the down market made profits going short while the knife was falling, and then buying long positions after convincing bottom patters and turn-around trends were well-established.

    Cramer "led from behind" while this was going on.
    Jun 16, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Bad News For Peabody Energy - Are We Seeing The End Of The Coal Industry? [View article]
    Obama promised that he would destroy the coal industry, the night before his 2007 election, and this is one of the few promises he's kept.

    Even before Obama was inaugurated, the energy minister from India was trolling around our coal producers, soaking up coal equities. By now, much of the US coal sector is owned by Indians, and they adore the rock bottom share prices.

    China and India are ecstatic about all the anti-coal policies under Obama's rule.
    May 21, 2015. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The AuRico Gold Spin-Off [View article]
    If you buy or hold AUQ shares today, what do you wind up with after AuRico Metals is formed?
    May 13, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And 'Missing The Boat' [View article]
    Mad writes "In the absence of a broad market correction, the new bottom for KMI is $40 for the rest of the year."

    With broad market indices topping, and we're overdue for a correction, I think the entry point for KMI is going to be comfortably less than $40 during that correction. Cost averaging, and the confident expectation of reliable dividends, says it makes sense to buy some KMI now, and add during the correction (because you increased your cash position when the market got overdue for a correction), and hold onto it for three or four years with the sound expectation that you'll look back on this strategy with reason to applaud your own genius.

    If there isn't a correction, you'll still be safe if you buy KMI now and hold it for a couple of years. But, don't worry, there's always a correction eventually, and volatility will always have periods of fluctuation.

    Oil's going to double some time in the next year or two, so midstreams and oil services are safe places to invest now if your time horizon is longer than a couple of years.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9%+ Dividend Payer Linn Energy/LinnCo Missed By -$0.83, Or Did It? [View article]
    Holding a LNCO position of around 2.5% in my portfolio. It's down about 50% from when the position was acquired. The dividend was reduced with the share price plunge, but still over 10% and still paid out monthly. I'm holding, and struggled to NOT back up the truck a month or two ago when oil was bottoming, otherwise the position would be larger.

    My expectation is that midstreams are a good investment now, and oil prices will only be temporarily low because the generosity of the Saudis is already running out. We already have Iranian interference with shipping, and the first function of oil in the Muslim world is as a weapon, so oil prices will spike again because sectarian hostility between Sunni and Shia overwhelms any capacity they have for discipline.

    I figure I'm accumulating more shares of LNCO every month, cheaply, and have more than I started with. When oil spikes, the LNCO position will blossom, as will positions in HAL and CVX. I timed the bottom for HAL, though that strategy is frowned upon by pundits, and expect rising oil prices will suppress a lot of the economy but these oil positions are like an insurance policy against open hostilities in the middle east (seems like a sure thing to me since every new year in the "arab spring" looks more and more like extremely ramped up inter-sectarian jihad).
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:12 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Makes A Move - Is Copper The Next Oil? [View article]
    Even when the Mongolian "government" leans favorably towards TRQ's/RIO's mining projects for copper and gold, it doesn't seem that any sustained progress is able to get a foothold.

    I have given up trying to second guess Mongolian mining projects, though managed to take some profits when IVN was the miner.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Makes A Move - Is Copper The Next Oil? [View article]
    CommonSense makes a good point about factors influencing Chinese Copper imports.

    Another factor driving down copper prices will be the Chinese copper mining project in eastern Afghanistan, which is predicted to add about 30% to Chinese domestic copper production.

    This will reduce Chinese copper imports from ex-China international sources at the same time that Chinese copper demand due to "make work" projects will taper off.

    Global copper prices and futures will eventually reflect this "perfect storm" pulling copper down.
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - Why This Geopolitical Issue Is Different (Part II) [View article]
    No, Deb.

    Iran (shia) is rising against ISIL (sunni), as a reaction against Abu Bakr al-Iraqi claiming he is the new caliph over all the Muslim world. It's just a predictable turn of events in the global inter-sectarian Muslim jihad to restore the caliphate.
    Aug 29, 2014. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - Why This Geopolitical Issue Is Different (Part II) [View article]
    Good comment: Crimea is Putin's Sedetenland.
    Aug 29, 2014. 01:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - Why This Geopolitical Issue Is Different (Part II) [View article]
    Hitler rose to power in Germany by a democratic election, so democratic elections aren't a reliable guarantee of governmental legitimacy.

    Aug 29, 2014. 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breaking It Down: Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Q1 2015 Earnings Call [View article]

    Good point. S&W used to have some piddling little ammo business, but their manufacturing and corporate HQ is in the Chicago area, a particularly hostile environment for businesses that require respect for the 2nd Amendment. Among the laws in Illinois that would make S&W shy away from producing ammo is a statute that prevents ammo purchases by any Illinois resident who doesn't have a state Firearms ID card, like a driver's license, and that supposedly applies to private, person-to-person exchanges of ammo. Looking at crime in Chicago, those laws don't seem to have prevented bad guys from blasting away at human targets.

    S&W needs to move its HQ to a more firearms-friendly state.
    Aug 29, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks hang on to gains as consumer spending posts surprise drop [View news story]
    The drop in consumer spending is not a surprise to those of us in America's forgotten heartland who have quite seen anything even vaguely resembling an "economic recovery".

    I used to be amused every time Larry Kudlow used to ask if anybody knew what was going on in America's heartland, economically. I would have told him, if there had been any way for me to tell him directly, but his email address and phone number never made it to my inbox. :-)
    Aug 29, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting The Dollar: Response To A Comment [View article]

    You mentioned turning your back on having no choice but to learn a new language every couple of years, while you were still working.

    Medicine has its own language, and its own vocabulary, which changes every day with new literature and new discoveries in science.

    Imagine trying to be a doctor in the VA when the VHA changes the computer hoops you have to jump through every couple of months whenever some young yes-man who knows nothing about medicine and nothing about computer applications in medicine trotted out some new computerized "improvement" that nobody understands, that doesn't work, that nobody can tell the doctors how to make it work.

    All the brightest and best IT guys have bailed out of the VA, or are planning to exit the VA, and they will be replaced by younger, less expensive, more obedient, less experienced IT guys who have never done anything in the real world yet, and they're are too ignorant to protest that, "Hey! This is stupid. It won't work. It's un-workable!"

    This is why the Obamacare roll out still doesn't work, and why the VA can't take care of veterans, among other reasons.

    Changing the stuff on the computers doesn't improve things. It just creates a record that administrators can use to prove they did something to earn their salaries.
    Aug 29, 2014. 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are The Opportunities In U.S. Health Care? [View article]
    Re: "over-taxed medical staffs"

    Physicians are fleeing from the practice of medicine already, as the government increasingly makes practice environments more un-survivable. This race for the exits will increase in the next months and years.

    The future of healthcare investments over the next 20 years, just to cover the sweet spot of boomer life expectancy, will be more about success or failure to make the practice of medicine an attractive profession, and less about technology.
    Aug 28, 2014. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protecting The Dollar: Response To A Comment [View article]
    You wrote: "That is, the goal is to insure, as well as they can, that if people become employed, they are put back, as soon as possible, into the jobs that they were formerly employed in."

    The current flood of physicians leaving the practice of medicine (due to the government ruining practice environments) will rapidly result in a national crisis. After a period spinning this phenomenon as being about "bad", "greedy", "uncaring" doctors, it may actually be understood for what it truly is about: there are real problems in the world that only get worse when legislators and lawyers get involved.
    Aug 28, 2014. 04:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment