Doc 224899's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/224899/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/177946-is-gold-bubble-popping?source=feed#comment-803714 803714
That makes 3 out of 4 BRIC countries building up gold reserves to stabilize their economies and currencies.

Anybody have info about Brazil? I'd speculate that since the natural resource corporations and banks in Brazil tend to be quasi-governmental, along the lines of Petrobras, and since Brazil has a brilliant track record of canny national resource managment, we can probably bet Brazil is stashing away gold at an impressive rate and keeping it off the open market by banking a lot of what they produce domestically.

How can the USA compete with that? Rather, how can you and I compete in a global arena when our government lacks the vision to stockpile strategic resources, and lacks the discipline and maturity to back our currency with something more substantial than consumers spending money on stuff nobody needs with cash borrowed against real estate equity that shrinks in value every quarter?

]]> Sun, 13 Dec 2009 10:44:56 -0500
That makes 3 out of 4 BRIC countries building up gold reserves to stabilize their economies and currencies.

Anybody have info about Brazil? I'd speculate that since the natural resource corporations and banks in Brazil tend to be quasi-governmental, along the lines of Petrobras, and since Brazil has a brilliant track record of canny national resource managment, we can probably bet Brazil is stashing away gold at an impressive rate and keeping it off the open market by banking a lot of what they produce domestically.

How can the USA compete with that? Rather, how can you and I compete in a global arena when our government lacks the vision to stockpile strategic resources, and lacks the discipline and maturity to back our currency with something more substantial than consumers spending money on stuff nobody needs with cash borrowed against real estate equity that shrinks in value every quarter?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177940-rare-earths-jack-lifton-on-safeguarding-future-supply?source=feed#comment-803671 803671
The primary reason the USA cannot exploit resources domestically is because of administrative complexity and paralyzing over-regulation. Is there any way we can free ourselves of this short-sighted stupidity and shrug off our globalist delusions before the complete collapse of our society dissolves all these complexities and regulations?]]> Sun, 13 Dec 2009 09:55:50 -0500
The primary reason the USA cannot exploit resources domestically is because of administrative complexity and paralyzing over-regulation. Is there any way we can free ourselves of this short-sighted stupidity and shrug off our globalist delusions before the complete collapse of our society dissolves all these complexities and regulations?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177774-gold-market-awaits-u-s-retail-sales-number?source=feed#comment-803652 803652
Soros suggested that the gold in the International Monetary Fund be used to back $100B in loans for Green Development to developing countries on Dec 11 as a way of implementing U.N. plans in Copenhagen.

If you've been wondering what happened to "all the gold in Fort Knox", maybe you just got a clue, since the gold in IMF comes from the US.

Can we afford to support all the developing countries? If we just hand them a future, without their going through the process of pulling themselves up by their bootstraps, won't they just fritter it away in a replay of Liberia's pathetic history?]]> Sun, 13 Dec 2009 09:45:07 -0500
Soros suggested that the gold in the International Monetary Fund be used to back $100B in loans for Green Development to developing countries on Dec 11 as a way of implementing U.N. plans in Copenhagen.

If you've been wondering what happened to "all the gold in Fort Knox", maybe you just got a clue, since the gold in IMF comes from the US.

Can we afford to support all the developing countries? If we just hand them a future, without their going through the process of pulling themselves up by their bootstraps, won't they just fritter it away in a replay of Liberia's pathetic history?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177692-how-to-predict-the-price-of-gold?source=feed#comment-802908 802908
Could it be that we backed off from a gold-backed currency because we don't have the gold in reserve that we've told the world we did have? Could it be that the crash protection team is hostile to gold because we are poor in gold?]]> Sat, 12 Dec 2009 12:15:29 -0500
Could it be that we backed off from a gold-backed currency because we don't have the gold in reserve that we've told the world we did have? Could it be that the crash protection team is hostile to gold because we are poor in gold?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176775-as-the-dollar-rises-and-gold-falls-should-we-get-ready-for-fed-rate-hikes?source=feed#comment-792578 792578 Sun, 06 Dec 2009 10:59:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176587-not-completely-awful-news-for-jobs?source=feed#comment-792573 792573 Sun, 06 Dec 2009 10:54:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176638-sinclair-s-million-dollar-gold-bet-enters-the-home-stretch?source=feed#comment-792568 792568
Explanation: European currencies may devalue relative to the US dollar as their exploding expenses in operating social programs cause their national budgets to cave in. The middle eastern and north African populations in countries like Italy, France, Sweden, and the Netherlands are rapidly growing, noisily demand services, and contribute nothing to the common good in the countries they have infested. In China, previously productive rural agrarian populations have moved to cities, where they have no work. In Russia, on average, men die before they are 60 years old.

If European and Asian economies hemorrhage value faster than ours does, European currencies might devalue relative to the dollar, and the dollar might recover relative to gold.

Hence: Our only chance of winning is to lose more slowly than the other losers.]]> Sun, 06 Dec 2009 10:49:42 -0500
Explanation: European currencies may devalue relative to the US dollar as their exploding expenses in operating social programs cause their national budgets to cave in. The middle eastern and north African populations in countries like Italy, France, Sweden, and the Netherlands are rapidly growing, noisily demand services, and contribute nothing to the common good in the countries they have infested. In China, previously productive rural agrarian populations have moved to cities, where they have no work. In Russia, on average, men die before they are 60 years old.

If European and Asian economies hemorrhage value faster than ours does, European currencies might devalue relative to the dollar, and the dollar might recover relative to gold.

Hence: Our only chance of winning is to lose more slowly than the other losers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176686-an-alternative-view-on-the-rising-price-of-gold?source=feed#comment-792543 792543
Our currency was backed by gold, but is no longer. Now our currency is only loosely backed by our economy, and that economy is based on neither goods nor services valued in the global market. Our economy is only based on consumers buying stuff they don't need with credit backed by increasingly devalued property.

We have repeatedly proven to trading partners that we do no actually have the gold reserves we claim to have. If some country demanded gold in exchange for US treasury bonds, we would be in a world of trouble.

Currencies can be backed by other commodities, such as oil or platinum or iron, and even in the absence of a commodity standard or a gold standard the currencies of commodity-rich countries (e.g., Canada, Australia, Brazil, China, Russia) become more stable and trade at an exchange advantage compared to the currencies of commodity-poor (i.e., consume vastly more than they produce) countries like the US. ]]> Sun, 06 Dec 2009 10:25:22 -0500
Our currency was backed by gold, but is no longer. Now our currency is only loosely backed by our economy, and that economy is based on neither goods nor services valued in the global market. Our economy is only based on consumers buying stuff they don't need with credit backed by increasingly devalued property.

We have repeatedly proven to trading partners that we do no actually have the gold reserves we claim to have. If some country demanded gold in exchange for US treasury bonds, we would be in a world of trouble.

Currencies can be backed by other commodities, such as oil or platinum or iron, and even in the absence of a commodity standard or a gold standard the currencies of commodity-rich countries (e.g., Canada, Australia, Brazil, China, Russia) become more stable and trade at an exchange advantage compared to the currencies of commodity-poor (i.e., consume vastly more than they produce) countries like the US. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175847-is-a-deficit-neutral-stimulus-possible?source=feed#comment-783955 783955
Wake me up! Oh, please wake me up from this Orwellian nightmare in which gently smiling people constantly utter soothing phrases in soft tones that mean absolutely nothing. With eyes like trusing cows, masses of people nod in agreement when they hear the verbal opium, obediently following along in suffling herds of voluntarily subjugated human slaves. They assure each other they are "free", having forgotten the meaning of the word.]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:49:20 -0500
Wake me up! Oh, please wake me up from this Orwellian nightmare in which gently smiling people constantly utter soothing phrases in soft tones that mean absolutely nothing. With eyes like trusing cows, masses of people nod in agreement when they hear the verbal opium, obediently following along in suffling herds of voluntarily subjugated human slaves. They assure each other they are "free", having forgotten the meaning of the word.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175840-hamp-obama-turns-up-heat-on-lenders?source=feed#comment-783953 783953 Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:37:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175796-looking-ahead-at-november-auto-sales?source=feed#comment-783951 783951
We're lucky to have seen even the little up-blips in August and Octorber.

"Jobless recovery" sounds like "The Big Lie" that serves the interest of a certain political power cartel right now, but a consumer economy was bad for this country for decades before the post-Lehman Brothers dark ages. Looking at car sales for encouragement is a bad bet. ]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:32:12 -0500
We're lucky to have seen even the little up-blips in August and Octorber.

"Jobless recovery" sounds like "The Big Lie" that serves the interest of a certain political power cartel right now, but a consumer economy was bad for this country for decades before the post-Lehman Brothers dark ages. Looking at car sales for encouragement is a bad bet. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175684-oceanfreight-why-it-s-now-a-must-buy?source=feed#comment-783945 783945 Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:14:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175783-why-gold-is-up-bric-countries-are-buying?source=feed#comment-783739 783739 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:43:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175662-green-energy-investing-for-beginners-part-iii?source=feed#comment-782483 782483
Basically, pre-existing and alternative energy utilities will have to be connected to the pre-existing grid, at least temporarily, in order to avoid service interruption, before any new grid can be built and used.

Plus, energy and materials will ALSO have to be used to maintain and grow the conventional energy production network while the alternative energy network is being built, during which time the alternative energy network is "taking" but not "giving back".

When you factor in all these energy and material requirements for making an alternative energy system (with our current technology) and then converting the world to it, there just isn't enough energy and materials to make the change. As a consequence, all the existing alternative energy strategies that are currently available will never be profitable in the long run, and any investor money thrown at them now will never turn a profit except in the short term due to volatility. ]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 08:28:11 -0500
Basically, pre-existing and alternative energy utilities will have to be connected to the pre-existing grid, at least temporarily, in order to avoid service interruption, before any new grid can be built and used.

Plus, energy and materials will ALSO have to be used to maintain and grow the conventional energy production network while the alternative energy network is being built, during which time the alternative energy network is "taking" but not "giving back".

When you factor in all these energy and material requirements for making an alternative energy system (with our current technology) and then converting the world to it, there just isn't enough energy and materials to make the change. As a consequence, all the existing alternative energy strategies that are currently available will never be profitable in the long run, and any investor money thrown at them now will never turn a profit except in the short term due to volatility. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175498-petrobras-long-term-prospects-look-as-strong-as-ever?source=feed#comment-782462 782462
There is also the part where Petrobras owns, or leases, 85% of the world's deep ocean drilling and production rigs. Even if somebody else had undersea oil fields to develop, like East Timor, PBR would make money on their exploration and development process.

Regards,

Doc 224899]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 08:10:16 -0500
There is also the part where Petrobras owns, or leases, 85% of the world's deep ocean drilling and production rigs. Even if somebody else had undersea oil fields to develop, like East Timor, PBR would make money on their exploration and development process.

Regards,

Doc 224899]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175697-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-782453 782453
Don't look at London gold prices; look at Dubai prices - Dubai gold quotes tell you where the well-informed money is going.]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 07:59:34 -0500
Don't look at London gold prices; look at Dubai prices - Dubai gold quotes tell you where the well-informed money is going.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175617-the-gold-market-fights-back?source=feed#comment-781899 781899
The net effect of that will be a correction in bullion prices, like we saw Friday, November 27, intended to keep too many people from selling paper and buying gold. The global market it too enthusiastic to permit the manipulation from working the way it used to. When the brief correction in gold happens, buyers like India and China will use that as an opportunity to buy more gold from the IMF and from other central banks stupid enough to sell gold bullion.

That gives me, and you, a chance to take advantage of an entry point that the federal government has paid for so I can buy more junior gold miners and second tier gold miners who have corporate headquarters outside the USA, and whose share prices leverage the price of gold.

The UAE central bank announced it would cover the "lenders" who bought the Dubai World paper. In other words, the UAE central bank is not going to allow investors who might invest in the UAE to lose faith. It didn't state whether or not it regards Dubai World as "too big to allow it to fail", so we can see if the UAE central bank has a free market mentality, or a characteristically Arab appreciation of the value in permitting nature to determine the "survival of the fittest".

Still, Dubai World's mini-default is just another isolated tip of the global credit crunch iceberg. In the USA, banks are starting to feel the consequences of Alt-A and prime rate mortgage failures, the "second wave" after last year's sub-prime mortgage failures forced banks to foreclose on borrowers who shouldn't have gotten mortgages in the first place.

Gold and gold miners briefly lost value as Nervous Nancy investors cashed out on Friday, November 27, and now you can ask yourself if you have the stones to take advantage of the dip to buy more gold positions Monday morning. ]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:51:49 -0500
The net effect of that will be a correction in bullion prices, like we saw Friday, November 27, intended to keep too many people from selling paper and buying gold. The global market it too enthusiastic to permit the manipulation from working the way it used to. When the brief correction in gold happens, buyers like India and China will use that as an opportunity to buy more gold from the IMF and from other central banks stupid enough to sell gold bullion.

That gives me, and you, a chance to take advantage of an entry point that the federal government has paid for so I can buy more junior gold miners and second tier gold miners who have corporate headquarters outside the USA, and whose share prices leverage the price of gold.

The UAE central bank announced it would cover the "lenders" who bought the Dubai World paper. In other words, the UAE central bank is not going to allow investors who might invest in the UAE to lose faith. It didn't state whether or not it regards Dubai World as "too big to allow it to fail", so we can see if the UAE central bank has a free market mentality, or a characteristically Arab appreciation of the value in permitting nature to determine the "survival of the fittest".

Still, Dubai World's mini-default is just another isolated tip of the global credit crunch iceberg. In the USA, banks are starting to feel the consequences of Alt-A and prime rate mortgage failures, the "second wave" after last year's sub-prime mortgage failures forced banks to foreclose on borrowers who shouldn't have gotten mortgages in the first place.

Gold and gold miners briefly lost value as Nervous Nancy investors cashed out on Friday, November 27, and now you can ask yourself if you have the stones to take advantage of the dip to buy more gold positions Monday morning. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175521-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-779849 779849

On Nov 27 11:38 AM Old Trader wrote:

> I can't help but wonder if Dubai is just the first shoe. This news
> has overshadowed Japan's Finance Minister thinking of asking for
> CB intervention on behalf of the yen, and the fact Vietnam has devalued
> the dong.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:10:43 -0500

On Nov 27 11:38 AM Old Trader wrote:

> I can't help but wonder if Dubai is just the first shoe. This news
> has overshadowed Japan's Finance Minister thinking of asking for
> CB intervention on behalf of the yen, and the fact Vietnam has devalued
> the dong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175496-is-dubai-s-default-a-black-swan-event?source=feed#comment-779771 779771
1) Start with last night's Dubai World mini-default.

2) Add the Abu Dhabi announced reluctance to cover Dubai's loan debt.

3) Then, replicate the event in early 2008 when the main fiber optic internet cable was severed in two places simultaneously in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf, which shut down banking for a day or two in the UAE, parts of Europe and India, and other parts of the Middle East, and globally slowed up all internet operations everywhere else including the USA.

That, my friends, would cause sufficient panic among traders pressing to cash out their long positions that people holding gold contract options in COMEX would choose to take delivery of physical gold rather than trade the contract options for dollars, and we all know COMEX can't actually cover all the contracts with physical gold. COMEX defaults, people cash out their stock positions in the major exchanges, and the dollar drops like a stone.

That could be the scenario of a full-blown Black Swan Cascade. ]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 12:41:39 -0500
1) Start with last night's Dubai World mini-default.

2) Add the Abu Dhabi announced reluctance to cover Dubai's loan debt.

3) Then, replicate the event in early 2008 when the main fiber optic internet cable was severed in two places simultaneously in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf, which shut down banking for a day or two in the UAE, parts of Europe and India, and other parts of the Middle East, and globally slowed up all internet operations everywhere else including the USA.

That, my friends, would cause sufficient panic among traders pressing to cash out their long positions that people holding gold contract options in COMEX would choose to take delivery of physical gold rather than trade the contract options for dollars, and we all know COMEX can't actually cover all the contracts with physical gold. COMEX defaults, people cash out their stock positions in the major exchanges, and the dollar drops like a stone.

That could be the scenario of a full-blown Black Swan Cascade. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175518-comex-shorts-confronted-by-huge-investment-central-bank-demand-for-bullion?source=feed#comment-779745 779745
The investors who conduct gold trades on the Dubai exchange presumably include traders from the other emirates and neighboring large Muslim oil countries as well as insiders at Dubai World. Since they probably have better information about the state of corporate finances in that part of the world than the rest of us, and since they are more bullish on gold than the rest of the world today, I think I'll take my cues from them.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 12:16:53 -0500
The investors who conduct gold trades on the Dubai exchange presumably include traders from the other emirates and neighboring large Muslim oil countries as well as insiders at Dubai World. Since they probably have better information about the state of corporate finances in that part of the world than the rest of us, and since they are more bullish on gold than the rest of the world today, I think I'll take my cues from them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175060-another-crisis-looms-right-around-the-corner?source=feed#comment-779706 779706 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 12:02:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174742-etf-update-health-care-legislation-and-health-care-stocks?source=feed#comment-773426 773426 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:12:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174800-global-macro-trends-in-eight-charts-the-next-crisis-will-be-in-currency?source=feed#comment-773303 773303
And that's a major factor that supports the rising price of gold.

Corporate leaders can't make profits while putting Americans to work at jobs for the same reason the Army and the FBI couldn't do anything about Nidal Malik Hasan. Management strategies don't actually get anything useful done or result in dynamic leadership, they merely protect managers from being sued for any decisions that might resemble counter-affirmative action.

Most civilians aren't aware that our military is a "High Performing Organization". So is Chrysler, and so was Wachovia. Nothing but a bunch of P.C. hogwash ! ]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:33:15 -0500
And that's a major factor that supports the rising price of gold.

Corporate leaders can't make profits while putting Americans to work at jobs for the same reason the Army and the FBI couldn't do anything about Nidal Malik Hasan. Management strategies don't actually get anything useful done or result in dynamic leadership, they merely protect managers from being sued for any decisions that might resemble counter-affirmative action.

Most civilians aren't aware that our military is a "High Performing Organization". So is Chrysler, and so was Wachovia. Nothing but a bunch of P.C. hogwash ! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174810-will-gold-hit-1-200-by-the-end-of-the-year?source=feed#comment-773159 773159 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:14:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174781-bargains-still-abound-in-a-few-gold-miners?source=feed#comment-773146 773146 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:09:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173482-gold-and-silver-continue-their-ascent?source=feed#comment-761809 761809
Gold is still less than 50% BELOW the inflation adjusted price it attained in 1980.

On the supply side, we are in a global state of peak gold: visible physical gold that just lays there shining in the sun, like it used to be found in Mexico, is pretty much gone and what's left is expensive to recover and refine.

Seems bullish to me.

Therefore, even if there are corrections, the trend is up.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:39:08 -0500
Gold is still less than 50% BELOW the inflation adjusted price it attained in 1980.

On the supply side, we are in a global state of peak gold: visible physical gold that just lays there shining in the sun, like it used to be found in Mexico, is pretty much gone and what's left is expensive to recover and refine.

Seems bullish to me.

Therefore, even if there are corrections, the trend is up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173503-beyond-gld-four-alternative-gold-etfs?source=feed#comment-761800 761800
CEF: Central Fund of Canada. CEF holds gold and silver, and certificates in a vault. CEF just announced a $1B purchase of gold bullion.

GTU: Central Gold Trust. Like CEF, but holds just gold. ]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:29:36 -0500
CEF: Central Fund of Canada. CEF holds gold and silver, and certificates in a vault. CEF just announced a $1B purchase of gold bullion.

GTU: Central Gold Trust. Like CEF, but holds just gold. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173503-beyond-gld-four-alternative-gold-etfs?source=feed#comment-761795 761795
If people buy a large volume of GDXJ shares, and they almost certainly will, it will pull up the demand/supply curve for many of these small miners, and share prices of the small miners’s stock will also be pulled upwards. GDXJ share prices should leverage GLD and GDX, all things being equal, and volume of GDXJ shares traded will increase the extent to which the individual small miner stocks leverage the price of gold and leverage the value of the gold miner sector.

In the same way GLD's bullion holdings raise the price of gold when lots of new shares of GLD are bought, an increase in the volume of GDXJ outstanding shares will raise the prices of small miner stocks. I’m betting that will happen in the next week or two, as this new ETF catches on, and it will pull up share prices of the junior miners.

Some of the stocks, like GRS and JAG and NXG, have terrific fundamentals right now, and they should do very well. ]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:25:32 -0500
If people buy a large volume of GDXJ shares, and they almost certainly will, it will pull up the demand/supply curve for many of these small miners, and share prices of the small miners’s stock will also be pulled upwards. GDXJ share prices should leverage GLD and GDX, all things being equal, and volume of GDXJ shares traded will increase the extent to which the individual small miner stocks leverage the price of gold and leverage the value of the gold miner sector.

In the same way GLD's bullion holdings raise the price of gold when lots of new shares of GLD are bought, an increase in the volume of GDXJ outstanding shares will raise the prices of small miner stocks. I’m betting that will happen in the next week or two, as this new ETF catches on, and it will pull up share prices of the junior miners.

Some of the stocks, like GRS and JAG and NXG, have terrific fundamentals right now, and they should do very well. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172922-6-global-risks-that-could-spark-a-new-crisis?source=feed#comment-756664 756664 Short: lawyers, democrats, urban residential property, urban commercial property. Long: gold, silver, gold miners, commodities, rural residential properties, rural agricultural property with fresh water supply, guns, ammo, toilet paper, hand tools.

Hedge: learn animal husbandry and veterinarian skills, learn midwife skills, drop the bitchy attitude, discipline those children, make friends with a blacksmith.]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:17:07 -0500 Short: lawyers, democrats, urban residential property, urban commercial property. Long: gold, silver, gold miners, commodities, rural residential properties, rural agricultural property with fresh water supply, guns, ammo, toilet paper, hand tools.

Hedge: learn animal husbandry and veterinarian skills, learn midwife skills, drop the bitchy attitude, discipline those children, make friends with a blacksmith.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172786-3-reasons-not-to-believe-in-gold-s-recent-rally?source=feed#comment-756662 756662 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:13:00 -0500