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Doc 224899

Doc 224899
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  • Volume Indicates This Isn't A Healthy Market [View article]
    Inflation Trader,

    Nobody gave a talk about inflation because it is a taboo subject among academic economists.

    Reason? Discussions of inflation eventually devolve into discussions of real inflation (it takes a higher percentage of my annual income to buy a decked out pickup truck this year than it did 5 years ago) versus inflation as it's calculated by academicians and politicians (everything is fine, don't worry, the government will take care of me).
    Jan 9, 2012. 07:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Correlation With Commodities And Stocks [View article]
    If the price of oil goes up, the value of fiat money drops. If the value of fiat money drops because oil becomes more expensive, the value of gold increases.

    If oil gets so expensive nobody can afford it, the economies based on oil for energy tank. If those economies tank, nobody can afford oil products and oil becomes less valuable because nobody can buy it anymore. When that happens gold dissociates from oil.
    Jan 9, 2012. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Data Isn't As Cheery As They Would Have You Think [View article]
    Expanding the money supply by taxing the successful into downsizing their companies and pinching their pennies, then printing more dollars that only have value to the extent that they represent faith in the US economy, must have the net effect of devaluing the dollar.

    The dollar is like a share in a corporation, and the corporation (the American economy) is shrinking in terms of real earnings per capita and real spending per capita. Printing more dollars dilutes the value of each dollar.
    Jan 9, 2012. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Health Could Be The Best Positioned Hospital For A Rebound In Employment [View article]
    If the Trial Attorneys' lobby continues to stiffle political discussions of tort reform UHS will underperform the major indices.

    Psychiatric Solutions is one of those outfits that looks good on paper and chirps out all the nice-sounding language that impresses everyone except highly skilled and experienced psychiatrists who care about their patients, who still recognize that nifty checklists administered by non-physicians are never a substitute for face time between a doctor and a patient.
    Jan 8, 2012. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: What To Buy In 2012 Part III [View article]
    The cool Bakken play is CAT.
    Jan 8, 2012. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • African Unrest Should Worry Canadian Miners [View article]
    Africa is a continent that can absorb all the attention and money and expertise the rest of the world has to offer, and somehow consistently manages to turn all that into nothing worth anything to anybody, making anybody who even tried to care wish they'd never bothered with it.
    Jan 8, 2012. 05:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold: A Miner That Stands Out [View article]
    Yamana Gold has been a great miner with all the right fundamentals, great upstream development pipeline, great costs of production, good jurisdictions, all the right stuff for so long. But it's always failed to score with investors for so many months and years that even Cramer gave up on it.

    I think of Yamana as being to the gold miners sector what CHK is to the energy sector: looks great, and nobody seems to care.
    Jan 8, 2012. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold No Longer Makes Sense [View article]
    Nobody will be devaluing the Euro?

    If you believe that, maybe you'd like to hear about some prime real estate I can sell you in the Richmond, Virginia, ghetto lands that have be abandoned by everyone else, including the meth dealers and gang-bangers.
    Jan 8, 2012. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold No Longer Makes Sense [View article]
    Oil is a store of energy: a uniquely versatile store of energy, easily stored and transported, amenable to conversion to kinetic energy in a great many different ways, inexpensive to extract and refine.

    Gold is a store of wealth: durable, permanent, resisting corrosion, able to be stored for millenia without deterioration, respected for thousands of years by people across the globe who cannot agree on anything else, and short of nuclear explosions it's almost impossible to destroy.
    Jan 8, 2012. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold No Longer Makes Sense [View article]
    RussianBear,

    So, by your reasoning, anybody who doesn't agree with you is insane and should be deprived of their civil rights.

    I seem to recall that the Soviet Union used to deal with dissenters by declaring them to be socially dangerous and disabled by Political Insanity, locked up in asylums, and chemically sedated to the point of helplessness with involuntarily administered drugs.

    As a patriotic American, I suppose I am obliged to fight and, if need be, die to protect your right to be utterly wrong and to freely express your ideas. Thank God I am free to pick and choose who I fight and die for first, who second, and so on. You'll understand if you wind up pretty low on my list of priorities.
    Jan 8, 2012. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Data Isn't As Cheery As They Would Have You Think [View article]
    John L writes: "No trained macroeconomist with real world experience in business or banking would agree with this rosy description or think it portends a recovering economy."

    Comment: You said it, John. I couldn't agree more.

    Comment: Nobody with real-world experience, who isn't a Keynesian, who doesn't swoon at the mere mention of Obama, who's any kind of economist, macro or otherwise, gets to teach students at a university or gets published in a mainstream journal.

    Anecdotal evidence: I just spoke to a senior at UVA majoring in economics, asking him what is being taught at Univ of Virginia, and after comparing our core beliefs his guarded comment was that I'd be unlikely to survive on the faculty, or as a student, or as a grad student.

    Glad my Ivy League degrees (the real Ivy League, not so-called "Southern Ivy") have already been earned, and I don't need to consider a faculty career to put food on the table, because I don't think I could tolerate the PC b.s. long enough to finish anything in academia at this point.

    Too bad: nobody growing up now can be taught about peak natural reasources or the life support capacity of the environment, so our future decision-makers won't have a clue how to think effectively about man's future on the planet.
    Jan 8, 2012. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold No Longer Makes Sense [View article]
    The Pan Asian Gold Exchange (PAGE) is going to change everything this year, and for several reasons will increase the global value of gold. Gold prices will rise as more and more is taken out of circulation to back contracts (100% backing for PAGE gold contracts, as opposed to 5 or 10 % for COMEX contracts), and more and more winds up in private ownership due to physical delivery at settlement for PAGE contracts. 1/3 of the global population will be influenced directly or indirectly by PAGE.

    PAGE will set the stage for a Chinese currency backed at least fractionally by bullion, which will become an increasingly appealing reserve currency. This will reduce the popularity of the USD as a reserve currency, and when the USD loses reserve currency status it will open the door for accellerated dollar inflation.

    Everybody in Southeast Asia either wishes they'd had gold is or glad they had it, because it's what they could bribe border guards or corrupt officials with to survive, for example in South Vietnam after the American withdrawal. The Chinese and Southeast Asians love gold, have faith in gold, and constitute one third of the global population so their faith in gold means a lot globally.

    In the Middle East, everybody with money wants gold or has bought gold or wishes they had some. That's another big chunk of the global population.

    Things are getting unstable all over the world, so gold and silver are being increasingly relied upon as default stores of wealth, and the next ten years aren't going to see any greater political or economic stability, so gold and silver will be increasingly relied upon.
    Dec 30, 2011. 01:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Arguments For An Inevitable Economic Collapse [View article]
    About Dent the author writes: "His book also includes original thinking, which says a lot of the problems are caused by changes in population growth and the ages of the population. This concept is not widely used in traditional economics, but I think it makes an important contribution here."

    Comment: Yes!!!!
    In the 60's and 70's all studies of ecology and environment made reference to population growth and "the life support capacity of the land". There was much interest in "Zero Population Growth" policies.

    Now, probably due to political correctness and much political momentum to "save" millions of people among primitive populations that have reproduced far beyond "the life support capacity" of the land they live on, the issue of unsustainable over-population trends has been declared out of bounds in university economics and history departments. With millions of black Africans dying from AIDS at the same time they die from dehydration and starvation, while the West makes expensive token gestures at doing something about it, there's no room for a voice that says, "This is what overpopulation looks like. If it isn't AIDS, it will be any one of a hundred other infections that gain traction in overpopulated human communities." Any study of people living in an environmental niche should be able to recognize this issue, but it's been declared a forbidden topic.
    Dec 30, 2011. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has Reached The Point Of No Return [View article]
    You noted Germany is against the Bailout Fund at 500Bn Euros.

    Germany has to decide how it will save itself from sinking under the waves of debt with its neighbors. It's like the exercise of tough love in a very, very dysfunctional family: Germany has to stop subsidizing the screw-ups of her neighbors, and get enough distance from them that when they crash and burn Germany will be outside the blast radius. My German friend refers to some of them as "Lazy Mediterranean Countries", and says that's been the standard German opinion for decades.
    Dec 29, 2011. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has Reached The Point Of No Return [View article]
    China won't come to the aid of Europe, or anyone else, and in this regard they don't want to be like Americans.

    China's pattern has been consistent: establish an economic beach head without bothering to win hearts and minds, take whatever resource they believe they need, and then regard their work as done. They don't really care if their economic and political presence results in a humanitarian crisis, or in an environmental crisis.
    Dec 29, 2011. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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