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Doc 224899

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  • Gold and Swine Flu Economics [View article]
    There have been no vaccine manufacturers with corporate bases in the US for several years because the liability risks are too great. All the ones that were here left, or outsourced, or in some other way located the vaccine operation beyond the reach of American trial attorneys. That doesn't mean you won't find a vaccine manufacturer's stock symbol to trade on that has a US address listed in the corporate profile, it just means that the vaccine development and manufacturing is done outside our country to protect it from our country's lawyers. As a result we must rely on vaccines manufactured in other countries, which is a terrible strategic vulnerability, and which will never be addressed by the likes of Obama because he cares more about pleasing trial attorneys than about the health and safety of Americans.
    May 3 02:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks and Sectors That Could Catch Swine Flu Symptoms [View article]
    The swine flu over-reaction is ridiculously costly, but the Obama administration doesn't care about that cost. They're happy because we, America's citizens, are paying for a public relations campaign that Obamanistas have engineered to scare the public into approving of their bureaucracy-heavy lawyer’s-fee-generating "healthcare reform" legislative package.

    That expensive healthcare reform plan entirely ignores a long-overdue legislative approach that would cut healthcare costs by about 70%: tort reform. The Obama plan is little more than re-packaged Clinton-style healthcare reform, which also protected the huge vig raked in by thieving lawyers. No surprise in any of this, except it is all so entirely true to form, and exactly the sort of government rule by manipulating public fear that was exposed by Michael Creighton in "State of Fear".

    Even the new acting director of CDC (notice the term "acting director") has been careful to avoid statements that compare this batch of H1N1 virus from Mexico to normal human flu, and to the 1918 flu, but then we should understand that he's on a tight leash and wants to get a letter in the mail telling him he's the new full-time director of CDC, and if he told the public the truth he wouldn't have a chance to get that letter. He couldn’t even say, “You don’t get swine flu from eating dead pig meat because viruses die when the host organism’s cells die,” which is basic high school cell biology that everybody needs to be reminded of so they don’t eschew pork products

    You'll also notice that in spite of the fact that isolation and quarantine have been the default strategies in infectious disease epidemic control for over a hundred years, the acting director of CDC couldn’t come out and call for sealing the border with Mexico, where the allegedly dangerous infection comes from, and where all the people carrying it into the US are coming from. Why is that? Could it be that doing so would finally establish one legitimate reason for correcting the porosity of the US-Mexican border, and Democrats don’t want to risk alienating Hispanics, even if it means increasing the risk of killing hundreds of thousands of Americans? (That’s the sort of risk that a real flu pandemic would entail, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans. The fact that the border isn’t being sealed may actually prove that it isn’t a legitimate pandemic flu risk.)

    So let's look at this H1N1 and the alleged lethality risk it carries.

    In Mexico there have been maybe a 100 to 1000 deaths (by the time you read this), reported to American newsies by Mexican officials who are bought and paid for by the American government and who would be utterly defenseless against drug gangsters if it weren't for US support and protection, and who will say whatever they're told to say. Right now they're busy hyping the flu scare and maintaining the silly fiction that drug gangsters in Mexico get their guns from Bob's Bait and Tackle in Waco.

    Why are Mexicans dying of this flu? Well, maybe it's because the infection has greater lethality when it makes its initial jump from Mexican swine to humans, and less lethality in its first human-to-human jump, and not much after that. It's a common pattern. The other reason would be that Mexico sells antibiotics over-the-counter without prescription, so people in Mexico commonly self-medicate in a way that either under-treats bacterial infections or otherwise encourages antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains to flourish in Mexico, and Mexicans with H1N1 flu are dying from secondary bacterial respiratory infections that are either under-treated or that involve antibiotic-resistant bacteria. The third reason would be that healthcare in Mexico is even worse than healthcare in Canada or England, so people in Mexico generally just stay home and die or get Mexican healthcare and die when they get sick.

    Biologically, this H1N1 viral strain in today's news clearly lacks the lethality factors that have been present in the serious pandemics in the past. In other words, it's wimpy flu, not big strong scary flu.

    Thirdly, this H1N1 strain of flu has been infecting humans in Mexico for at least 4 months (just do a little googling for yourself if you don't believe me), and nobody had any reason to make a big deal about it until the Obamanistas needed an infectious disease scare to bully the masses with.

    Oh, you ask, didn’t public health officials say there was a warning? Yes, they did. If you were a public health official, and you were in today’s political environment where every boss in the country has been shown over and over that survival today requires a keep-your-head-down-an... mode of professional conduct, you’d put out the warnings you were instructed to put out.

    Oh, you ask, didn’t the WHO issue warnings? Yup, and who do you think funds most of what the WHO does every year, without bothering to go to congress for consideration of whether that funding is justified?

    Give me a call when 36,000 people in America have died from this strain of H1N1 flu in a year, which is the average rate at which American’s die from normal flu in a normal year. Until then, I’m betting that I’ll be more likely die from being hit by a solid iridium meteorite than from infection with H1N1 flu.
    May 3 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu Threatens Already Weak Global Economy [View article]
    The swine flu over-reaction is ridiculously costly, but the Obama administration doesn't care about that cost. They're happy because we, America's citizens, are paying for a public relations campaign that Obamanistas have engineered to scare the public into approving of their bureaucracy-heavy lawyer’s-fee-generating "healthcare reform" legislative package.

    That expensive healthcare reform plan entirely ignores a long-overdue legislative approach that would cut healthcare costs by about 70%: tort reform. The Obama plan is little more than re-packaged Clinton-style healthcare reform, which also protected the huge vig raked in by thieving lawyers. No surprise in any of this, except it is all so entirely true to form, and exactly the sort of government rule by manipulating public fear that was exposed by Michael Creighton in "State of Fear".

    Even the new acting director of CDC (notice the term "acting director") has been careful to avoid statements that compare this batch of H1N1 virus from Mexico to normal human flu, and to the 1918 flu, but then we should understand that he's on a tight leash and wants to get a letter in the mail telling him he's the new full-time director of CDC, and if he told the public the truth he wouldn't have a chance to get that letter. He couldn’t even say, “You don’t get swine flu from eating dead pig meat because viruses die when the host organism’s cells die,” which is basic high school cell biology that everybody needs to be reminded of so they don’t eschew pork products

    You'll also notice that in spite of the fact that isolation and quarantine have been the default strategies in infectious disease epidemic control for over a hundred years, the acting director of CDC couldn’t come out and call for sealing the border with Mexico, where the allegedly dangerous infection comes from, and where all the people carrying it into the US are coming from. Why is that? Could it be that doing so would finally establish one legitimate reason for correcting the porosity of the US-Mexican border, and Democrats don’t want to risk alienating Hispanics, even if it means increasing the risk of killing hundreds of thousands of Americans? (That’s the sort of risk that a real flu pandemic would entail, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans. The fact that the border isn’t being sealed may actually prove that it isn’t a legitimate pandemic flu risk.)

    So let's look at this H1N1 and the alleged lethality risk it carries.

    In Mexico there have been maybe a 100 to 1000 deaths (by the time you read this), reported to American newsies by Mexican officials who are bought and paid for by the American government and who would be utterly defenseless against drug gangsters if it weren't for US support and protection, and who will say whatever they're told to say. Right now they're busy hyping the flu scare and maintaining the silly fiction that drug gangsters in Mexico get their guns from Bob's Bait and Tackle in Waco.

    Why are Mexicans dying of this flu? Well, maybe it's because the infection has greater lethality when it makes its initial jump from Mexican swine to humans, and less lethality in its first human-to-human jump, and not much after that. It's a common pattern. The other reason would be that Mexico sells antibiotics over-the-counter without prescription, so people in Mexico commonly self-medicate in a way that either under-treats bacterial infections or otherwise encourages antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains to flourish in Mexico, and Mexicans with H1N1 flu are dying from secondary bacterial respiratory infections that are either under-treated or that involve antibiotic-resistant bacteria. The third reason would be that healthcare in Mexico is even worse than healthcare in Canada or England, so people in Mexico generally just stay home and die or get Mexican healthcare and die when they get sick.

    Biologically, this H1N1 viral strain in today's news clearly lacks the lethality factors that have been present in the serious pandemics in the past. In other words, it's wimpy flu, not big strong scary flu.

    Thirdly, this H1N1 strain of flu has been infecting humans in Mexico for at least 4 months (just do a little googling for yourself if you don't believe me), and nobody had any reason to make a big deal about it until the Obamanistas needed an infectious disease scare to bully the masses with.

    Oh, you ask, didn’t public health officials say there was a warning? Yes, they did. If you were a public health official, and you were in today’s political environment where every boss in the country has been shown over and over that survival today requires a keep-your-head-down-an... mode of professional conduct, you’d put out the warnings you were instructed to put out.

    Oh, you ask, didn’t the WHO issue warnings? Yup, and who do you think funds most of what the WHO does every year, without bothering to go to congress for consideration of whether that funding is justified?

    Give me a call when 36,000 people in America have died from this strain of H1N1 flu in a year, which is the average rate at which American’s die from normal flu in a normal year. Until then, I’m betting that I’ll be more likely die from being hit by a solid iridium meteorite than from infection with H1N1 flu.
    May 3 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Card Catastrophe: Congress Can't Help [View article]
    Bold statements, Jason.

    Not only can we not legislate stupidity away, we can actually bank on stupidity. That's what the banks have done.

    PT Barnum was right.

    "notsosmart", above, is in a small group that will always find a way to float on the surface of the waves, no matter what the tide does.
    By the way "notsosmart", do you know where I can get my 19" Toshiba crt set repaired?
    May 3 11:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The State of the Consumer [View article]
    "Consumers" are self-segregating into two groups, and the actions of these two groups are what should be followed.

    One group, the higher-functioning one that is coincidentally a smaller group, has sized things up and has basically stopped spending money on stuff they don't need. Every now and then they buy crap in WalMart that they bring home and throw in a closet and never look at again, like they used to do, but for the most part they've forced themselves to grow up and wise up. People in this group buy a car and hold on to it until it's really old, and change the oil and keep it repaired, and either have never paid a credit card interest rate in their lives or they got caught once and paid it off and vowed never to do anything that stupid ever again. These people don't need the president to protect them from credit card companies, and have never even been close to defaulting on their mortgages, and can operate power tools without being injured. This group will always be small, and will always be resented by the other group.

    The other group, the lower functioning one that is the larger group, still spends money on stuff they don't need and still wonder why they have really high credit card bills. They get new cars every three or four years, and either take on the burden of car notes or lease cars they could never afford to buy and then get taken by surprise when the total cost of the lease turns out to be more expensive than the advertized monthly fee led them to expect (duh). They need the president to protect them from credit card companies (though nothing the president does will make a difference because stupidity is an indelible stain that can't be wiped off), will never pay off a mortgage in their entire lives and shouldn't even try to buy a house, and they can't handle power tools without getting hurt no matter what gets printed in the WARNINGS. The more this group is protected, the larger and dumber it gets.
    May 3 10:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It) [View article]
    "...people have less money to spend on lawyers..."

    Thanks for saying it.

    We can't afford all the lawyers that the law schools have pumped out in the last 40 years, and as the economy shrinks we have to shrink the number of lawyers. We actually need about 5% of the lawyers we now have, and most of what lawyers now do is nothing more than bleed the life and cash out of everything good and useful in this country.

    Leading to Prediction 11: Reasonable, nice, productive people who have intact social skills wake up one morning and convince 19 out of every 20 lawyers around them to change careers and finally do something that doesn't destroy everything around them. Those lawyers who don't cooperate are sent to the countries where their former union clients and tort complainants have chased all the useful and productive work that used to be done in this country, and they set about the business of surviving parasitic infections and tribal conflicts.

    Lawyers are predators who feed off the carcasses of individuals and corporations who actually do useful things and make useful things, to support a hugely inefficient and unregulated profession that is dominated by people with personality disorders who were born to argue or steal from the majority of people who are nice.
    May 3 10:25 AM | 57 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It) [View article]
    "...people will have less money to spend on lawyers..."

    Finally. We actually need about 5% of the lawyers we now support. Lawyers feed off the carcasses of just about every person and corporation that is productive. Lawyers make money off people with personality disorders, the individuals who would have been kicked out of the wago train 130 years ago, or chased away from the cave and fire 20,000 years ago.

    It's time to subject the legal profession to the same critical reviews we apply to health care (a service we can't live without), to reduce wasteful spending on legal services (which we can hardly tolerate).
    May 3 10:11 AM | 94 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Still a Good Choice [View article]
    Let's see if $855 is a support level for gold bullion.

    Remember, not long ago $855 was the all-time record for gold bullion, a price that only existed for a few moments in a chaotic market over 20 years ago.

    Awhile after 9-11 gold was down briefly to ~ $270, below the costs of production.

    If $855 holds as a support in the next few weeks, we may see a 3-fold upside for gold as inflation kicks in and as green mania drives up the costs of everything that could cost half as much if it just didn't have to be so green.
    Apr 19 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stimulus Funds for E-Records Augur Big Windfall for Small Health Firms [View article]
    Doctor "tcitc", above, has summarized the problems clearly and succinctly. All of what he says is true, based on my first-hand experience with the same electronic healthcare information systems.

    And, there is solid data which I think demonstrates that the Obama approach to healthcare reform is chilling the market. I'll reference the following article (Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages , posted 3/24/09) and explain as follows:

    The most dismally failing sector in the list is Health Care.

    The second most dismally failing sector is Utilities (which I think of as energy that gets delivered to people like you and me and keeps the lights on at night, as opposed to the Energy sector, which is energy that makes money for the people who boss around folks wearing hardhats). Announcing to the whole world that President Obama will bankrupt the backbone of American utilities, the coal industry, explains the market pessimism in the Utility sector in response to President Obama's destructive and unfortunately relentless energies.

    For all the Obama campaign talk about focusing on domestic issues and "saving" the important things at home, the bear rally has ignored the only service sector we literally cannot live without, Health Care.

    The bear rally serves as a prediction for what will do well in the long run, if anything will ever again do well in the long run, during a recovery or post-consolidation market.

    The Obama health care reform plan for creating a more extensive Health Care bureaucracy with more bean-counters and more rapidly-shared information that nobody knows what to do with will not "save" Health Care. It will just "re-distribute the wealth" in the sector in a spiteful neo-Marxist sort of way that will ultimately bankrupt every organization that tries to put doctors in the position of seeing patients. It will also make it easier for trial attorneys to harvest fees, bleeding dollars away from doctors and facilities and suppliers of drugs and supplies and equipment. The market recognizes this reality, and the chart reflects it.

    At least this week the president will be overseas, so maybe American corporations will have a chance to recover a little while he tries to convince the G20 approve of the same policy agenda that has so chilled the market at home.
    Mar 29 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages (3/24/09) [View article]
    Wake up, Washington! Don't you see what's going on here?

    The most dismally failing sector in the list is Health Care.

    The second most dismally failing sector is Utilities (which I think of as energy that gets delivered to people like you and me and keeps the lights on at night, as opposed to the Energy sector, which is energy that makes money for the people who boss around folks wearing hardhats). Announcing to the whole world that President Obama will bankrupt the backbone of American utilities, the coal industry, explains the market pessimism in the Utility sector in response to President Obama's destructive and unfortunately relentless energies.

    For all the Obama campaign talk about focusing on domestic issues and "saving" the important things at home, the bear rally has ignored the only service sector we literally cannot live without, Health Care.

    The bear rally serves as a prediction for what will do well in the long run, if anything will ever again do well in the long run, during a recovery or post-consolidation market.

    The Obama health care reform plan for creating a more extensive Health Care bureaucracy with more bean-counters and more rapidly-shared information that nobody knows what to do with will not "save" Health Care. It will just "re-distribute the wealth" in the sector in a spiteful neo-Marxist sort of way that will ultimately bankrupt every organization that tries to put doctors in the position of seeing patients. It will also make it easier for trial attorneys to harvest fees, bleeding dollars away from doctors and facilities and suppliers of drugs and supplies and equipment. The market recognizes this reality, and the chart reflects it.

    At least this week the president will be overseas, so maybe American corporations will have a chance to recover a little while he tries to convince the G20 approve of the same policy agenda that has so chilled the market at home.
    Mar 29 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Big Banks Gaming the Taxpayer? [View article]
    Who gets to pick which mortgages go into each bundle, group, or traunch?

    Do you get to pick them over before you put your money down?

    Is there any way to weed out the mortgages that you believe are going to disproportionately foreclose or disproportionately pay off?
    Mar 28 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Airline ETF Has Trouble on Takeoff [View article]
    Why the heck would anybody invest their own money in an airline ETF?

    In a contracting economy, airlines must be expected to contract more than just about anything else since the service they provide is almost never actually "necessary".

    The temporary success of the airlines was based on masses of people being convinced to spend money they thought they didn't need on trips they didn't really have to make.

    We can't expect that sort of thinking to survive any more than the peculiar reasoning that resulted in people borrowing on equity to buy things they didn't need.
    Mar 27 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner's Real Stress Tests [View article]
    "Stress Test" is a politically correct code phrase that means government wonks can snoop around your bank and lean on the bank whenever the majority party wants "private investors" to throw cash at a social problem (i.e. political issue) that will influence voters. It enables the majority party to force banks to throw money at the issues that the majority party finds convenient, and provides an information loop that enables the majority party to know they've been successful with their arm-twisting.
    Mar 26 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Banks Want to Return TARP Money [View article]
    It may be that Banks have started to recognize that accepting TARP money will carry some obligations down the road that they don't want to be bound to.

    Say you are Joes' Bank, and you take TARP money. Then, say that President Obama wants to throw cash from private investors at bad minority mortgage paper to prevent a disproportionate number of foreclosures among first-time minority homebuyers from becoming an issue politically, so he makes a plan that involves banks buying bundles of sub-prime minority mortgage paper. Joe’s Bank wants no part of the bad mortgage paper, realizing it’d be a bad investment, but then the government starts leaning on them to buy the bad mortgage paper, and it looks like regulators are going to come and make an assessment of the bank’s liquidity and patterns of using TARP money unless they buy the bad mortgage paper. Nobody puts it in writing, but when Joe’s bank buys the bad bundled mortgage paper, all of a sudden the regulators aren’t interested in them anymore.

    And that's what banks want to avoid.
    Mar 26 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's Auto Task Force Lacks Expertise [View article]
    Obama's Health Care task force lacks expertise.

    The auto task force is flawed in the same way, for the same reasons.

    Campaigning is the full-time, top priority. It was that way during the Clinton years, and this administration is following those same patterns. Hence, membership in each Obama "task force" is determined by political considerations, and as a consequence the people on the task forces lack expertise.

    Words that soothe, and voters being influenced positively, all part of the number one priority: all words and actions by all the politicians involved (Geithner is a politician, for example, or a lacky serving a politician so he's the same thing) serve a campaigning purpose that trumps all other considerations.

    Mar 26 01:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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