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Doc 224899

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  • Obama's Speech: The 'Vision Thing' vs. The Devil in the Details [View article]
    Stop making excuses for the incompetent Obama and his feckless cabinet of Clintonista retreads.

    Wall Street waited to see what he'd say, gave him a chance, then immediately issued the man a failing grade when he was done with his speech.

    What he failed to do was obvious.

    Wall Street wanted pledges to make concrete intrastructure spending commitments, but none were made.

    Wall Street wanted pledges to support doctors and protect healthcare providers and drug companies with tort reform, lowering the cost of healthcare by >50% by protecting providers from the current standard of ridiculous torts, but Oama failed to offer that concession.

    Speaking of eductation, Obama offered what amounts to a bribe to teachers for their continued indoctrination into liberal dogma of our impressionable students, and continued voting and legislative support from teachers' unions for the democratic party. There was nothing about challenging our brightest and best students, just slowing all students up so the slowest aren't embarrassed.
    Feb 25, 2009. 01:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Single Gulf Currency Needed Now More than Ever [View article]
    Peter Cooper's tone and content in this little essay suggest he might actually be unaware that a gold-backed currency launched by the Muslim Arab oil states would destroy the US dollar over night, bounce the spot price of gold up to $2000 or $3000, and drop the Dow to ~4000.

    That being the case, any news of a pending launch for such a currency would inspire an unprecedented flood of shorting activity that would drop every major index like a stone.

    The mere fact of oil being valued and traded in a gold-standardized Muslim Arab currency instead of US dollars would cause oil to trade in the $200 to $400 range (or higher) in the US, since it would be domestically bought and sold in US dollars that were suddenly devalued relative to gold, which would in turn choke all aspects of the American economy into a stand-still.

    Is America's only defense against a Muslim Arab gold-backed currency the creation of our own international trade currency backed by gold (which we still own more of than anybody else) or backed by a basket of metals?


    Feb 25, 2009. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Isn't the Administration Backing Nationalization? [View article]
    We can only hope that President Obama opposes nationalizing the banks because he doesn't want to bankrupt all the banks' shareholders (not just individuals, but also retirement funds and insurance companies), and doesn't want to completely destroy the entire banking and finance sector.

    We might explain the way President Obama's most strident supporters are puzzled that he doesn't want to nationize the banks by observing that his most strident supporters aren't the brightest bulbs on the tree.
    Feb 24, 2009. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Cramer Agrees: UltraShort Financial ETF Is Nothing but a Poor Trading Vehicle [View article]
    No, Don, SKF if a good trading vehicle, if you know how to use it, and a poor investing vehicle. With today's volatility, Ultra Shorts are good for making gains over time periods of hours to days, or a couple of weeks at most. The math tells us they aren't good for much longer periods of time, as has been discussed in several articles, and as my personal financial adivisor told me.
    Feb 24, 2009. 09:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Structural Crisis That Nobody Talks About [View article]
    No, Alex, it IS possible to "take down the internet". There are hi-tech ways of doing it, and lo-tech ways of doing it, but there ARE ways.

    Comparing to the past two structural crises to today's structural crisis, the ramp-up of railroads and the ramp-up of cars and tractors compared to to the ramp-up of computer interconnectivity and "globalization", there is a fundamental difference. Today's structural crisis is, on one level, a technological advancement that can be undone or backed away from (the internet). On another level, today's structural crisis is little more than an attractive term or phrase being used to label a delusion that is shared by a minority of people (globalization, the world community, equality among people, universal human rights), while most of the world embraces the old dog-eat-dog eye-for-an-eye recipe for success that has stood the test of time and that will prevail in the long run.
    Feb 24, 2009. 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Indians Are Selling Gold - Is Their Thinking Right? [View article]
    The question WE should be asking is: "Are Arab Oil sheiks selling gold, or are they buying all they can get in anticipation of an OPEC currency backed by a gold standard?"

    There may be gold sales by "man in the street" Indians, and that might mean something to us in some way, but they've been selling when the rest of the world was buying for over a year.

    As for questions about the possibility that we might be at the pivot point for a "double top" in gold prices, the HUI is still so low that combined market factors probably cannot allow a "top" in gold prices right now, so the spot price will just sail on past the point where it is and keep climbing. Remember: every up-trending channel had points where it could have swung for a "top" or a "double top", but it just kept on going.

    In summary, I'd agree with Peter Cooper that the Indian masses have got it wrong, but I'd wonder what factors might explain why they've been wrong for over a year.
    Feb 23, 2009. 08:48 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Gains on Fed Minutes, Obama’s Mortgage Plan [View article]
    Nobody is encouraged by the Obama mortgage rescue and foreclosure prevention plan. Most of the people who can read it, and who have an attention span that allows them to read it and read between the lines, see it as blatant redistribution of wealth (taking money from people who play by the rules and work for a living, and giving it to loafers and losers to buy their loyalty as democratic party constituents) and massive amounts of welfare spending in disguise, neither of which inspires confidence among market investors.
    Feb 20, 2009. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rick Santelli Speaks for the Silent Majority [View article]
    Bravo for Rick Santelli. He articulated several of my own personal gripes. He also revived the "silent majority" concept, and used it appropriately, without a distorting spin.

    I'm going to anticipate the way his corporate higher-ups will punish him, and protest it proactively, since his little spasm of lucidity ran in the direction of political incorrectness. He has nothing to apologize for. It's about time we called losers "losers", and broke it down around the issue of who can pay a mortgage and who can't.
    Feb 20, 2009. 08:21 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nigerian Militants in Delta: Bad for Nigeria, Good for Angola, Ghana [View article]
    A useful review of the problem and the players, but it deletes one important point. Nigeria's militants are driven and motivated by fanatical Muslim elements. Nigeria sits astride the southern boundary of Islamist influence in that part of Africa, with northern Nigeria staunchly Islamist and southern Nigeria predeminantly Christian and polytheist/animist. "Control" is an issue for the militants, but more specifically it is about Islamists using "the oil weapon" against the USA, Israel, and the non-believing west. Right now OPEC is putting an oil squeeze on the free world, tearing down America's economy to weaken America, and the "militants" are preventing Nigeria from being useful to the west as a default energy source. Knowing this, it is easier to predict how things will go in Nigeria (i.e., down the crapper) as far as energy resources are concerned. There will be no intact, secure energy enterprise in Nigeria unless it is controlled by Muslims and benefits Muslims.
    Feb 17, 2009. 09:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Laws That Government Should Pass [View article]
    Credit cards should only be issued by banks to customers who maintain minimum balances in their deposit accounts, as a courtesy, with a minimal service charge. This is what credit cards used to be about, and what they should go back to.

    Now, credit cards are money traps that lure immature and unsuspecting dupes into years of debt servitude with unreadable fine print and deals that sound too good to be true because they aren't.
    Feb 16, 2009. 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whistling Past the Graveyard? [View article]
    What we are experiencing in the American market may best be described as a transition from "what's best for the economy" to "what's best for the individual".

    The American economy is (has been) best served by people buying stuff they don't need, and paying prices they can't afford, with money they ought to be saving. That is what used to be called "wasting money like an idiot". That has been the basis of the consumer economy, and the basis of dollar diplomacy. This has resulted in people acquiring unprecedented levels of consumer debt, and basically borrowing on equity to pay for shoddy stuff fabricated by children and shamed women in foreign sweat shops. Banks and other lenders made money the easy way from exploitative credit card interest rates and service charges for lending money until pay checks were received, and basically gave up the prudent lending practices that had worked previously. After years of easy money, banks have forgotten how to earn money the old-fashioned way by judging whether or not a borrower is a good risk and has a good reason for borrowing.

    The individual is best served by not wasting his money on stuff he doesn't need, and by not buying stuff he can't afford, so that some day he'll have enough money saved up to buy something good that he has a genuine use for. Believe it or not, people actually used to "buy" their cars, and there didn't used to be any such thing as "car payments" because if you couldn't pay for a car you just didn't buy it. This seems to be what people are returning to. If people are actually learning from their mistakes, they'll take the puny couple of hundred bucks they might get in a bribe check from the IRS sent by the Obama administration this year and buy gold miner stock or potash stock, and they won't flush it down the tubes by wasting it at WalMart or MacDonald's. This won't be "good for the economy", but it will be good for the American people. If this sort of prudent individual spending lasts for a sufficient number of years, the economy will re-set itself around more adaptive parameters. If it lasts long enough, maybe Americans will go back to work making things that can be sold to other Americans, and performing useful service activities that require skill and training. That would require our federal government to find a grown-up foreign policy agenda, and stop trying to buy friendship from people who want to see us dead. It would also require attorneys to make a legitimate living in some way that doesn't involve thieving litigation against everybody who does or makes something useful.
    Feb 16, 2009. 03:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life After Coal: Coming Sooner than You Think [View article]
    There it is, in a comment rather than in the body of the essay, the single most compelling explanation for why we haven't resolved our coal issues: "it keeps a lot of lawyers in business". Lawyers representing both sides of the dispute, pro-coal and anti-coal, are raking in enormous fees. We may even speculate that within the life of law firms there are multi-generational fortunes that have been made litigating one side or the other.

    Achieving a solution to our nation's energy problems may require removing all possibility of lawyers making profits from having the issues unresolved. Once no lawyers can profit from delayed resolution of these energy issues, the science of all these possibilities will be laid out and allowed to determine the outcome, and the decisions will be made rationally and adaptively.

    Until that step is taken, unresolved energy issues will make compellingly large profits for law firms, and the law firms won't allow the issues to be resolved because they won't allow that fountain of fees to dry up.

    The Obama administration, directed as it is by the trial attorney’s lobby, will be prevented from making any useful progress in the direction of resolving our nation's energy issues. Instead, what they actually do will be to keep the problems festering so the litigation fees continue in an uninterrupted stream, while pumping out tons of soothing rhetoric about how concerned they are and how committed they are to getting traction on the issue and building coalitions, etc.
    Feb 16, 2009. 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2009: Another Year of Shock and Awe [View article]
    IVN Ivanhoe Mines just got notification (Feb 12, 2009) from the Mongolian Government that the government will accept a 34% stake in Oyu Tolgoi mining resources, which finally (finally !!) means they can go ahead and mine the potentially richest gold-copper resource area in the world with an agreement that will permit profitable production. They've been stalled on this project since 2006, as have other miners like BHP and RTP.

    Just days ago (Feb 10, 2009) SouthGobi Energy Resources, a majority-owned subsidiary of IVN (IVN owns 80.2% of the stock), made a stunning announcement that Alexander Molyneux has been appointed as President of SouthGobi, effective April 29, 2009. Molyneux leaves his position as Citigroup’s head of Metals and Mining Investment Banking, having worked with Asia-based clients since 2002, having raised over $20B in capital for clients in the region and having managed numerous mergers and acquisitions in the Asian metals and mining sector. It seems obvious that Ivanhoe and SouthGobi intend to use Molyneux’s prominence and success in the region to advance the Mongolian SouthGobi project, which involves about over 150,000,000 tons of coal.

    As a parent corporation, Ivanhoe has intertwined itself with two subsidiaries in the enormous and rich Mongolian exploration, development, and production project: SouthGobi Energy Resources and Entrée Gold (EGI). Specialists within Ivanhoe have been appointed and moved around between the three corporations so as to achieve maximum results, while resource leases and licenses have also been re-positioned for optimal results and minimal risk. Mega-miners like RTP and BHP have partnered up with Ivanhoe in Mongolia, and they’ve all been waiting for the fledging Mongolian government to get focused and complete the requisite formal agreements for almost 3 years. Most of the mineral riches produced will be shipped by rail to China, which is just 30 – 50 miles away from the resource districts under development. The core rail lines have already been built, either by the Chinese, or with the cooperation of the Chinese, though more roads and rails will follow.

    Altogether, this explains the timing of the surge in Ivanhoe stock prices over the last couple of days (low of $3.15 on Feb 10, high of $4.20 on Feb 12). A quick chart analysis indicates that there is no resistance between the current IVN stock price around $4 and the next resistance level of $8. 18 months ago the projected price for IVN was ~ $19. All of that was lost due to hold-ups by the Mongolian government, superimposed on fluctuations in the broad market and in the prices of gold and base metals and non-metallic minerals. Expect EGI Entrée Gold prices to jump, too, as will SouthGobi stock (OTC: SGQ in the US).

    As a gold miner, IVN’s share prices have been suppressed by the Mongolian government’s tardiness, resulting in a dramatic underperformance, but that logjam appears to finally be breaking up, and we may see IVN share prices play catch-up in a dramatic fashion over the next few weeks.
    Feb 12, 2009. 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bridgewater's Take on Gold, Equities [View article]
    IVN Ivanhoe Mines just got notification (Feb 12, 2009) from the Mongolian Government that the government will accept a 34% stake in Oyu Tolgoi mining resources, which finally (finally !!) means they can go ahead and mine the potentially richest gold-copper resource area in the world with an agreement that will permit profitable production. They've been stalled on this project since 2006, as have other miners like BHP and RTP.

    Just days ago (Feb 10, 2009) SouthGobi Energy Resources, a majority-owned subsidiary of IVN (IVN owns 80.2% of the stock), made a stunning announcement that Alexander Molyneux has been appointed as President of SouthGobi, effective April 29, 2009. Molyneux leaves his position as Citigroup’s head of Metals and Mining Investment Banking, having worked with Asia-based clients since 2002, having raised over $20B in capital for clients in the region and having managed numerous mergers and acquisitions in the Asian metals and mining sector. It seems obvious that Ivanhoe and SouthGobi intend to use Molyneux’s prominence and success in the region to advance the Mongolian SouthGobi project, which involves about over 150,000,000 tons of coal.

    As a parent corporation, Ivanhoe has intertwined itself with two subsidiaries in the enormous and rich Mongolian exploration, development, and production project: SouthGobi Energy Resources and Entrée Gold (EGI). Specialists within Ivanhoe have been appointed and moved around between the three corporations so as to achieve maximum results, while resource leases and licenses have also been re-positioned for optimal results and minimal risk. Mega-miners like RTP and BHP have partnered up with Ivanhoe in Mongolia, and they’ve all been waiting for the fledging Mongolian government to get focused and complete the requisite formal agreements for almost 3 years. Most of the mineral riches produced will be shipped by rail to China, which is just 30 – 50 miles away from the resource districts under development. The core rail lines have already been built, either by the Chinese, or with the cooperation of the Chinese, though more roads and rails will follow.

    Altogether, this explains the timing of the surge in Ivanhoe stock prices over the last couple of days (low of $3.15 on Feb 10, high of $4.20 on Feb 12). A quick chart analysis indicates that there is no resistance between the current IVN stock price around $4 and the next resistance level of $8. 18 months ago the projected price for IVN was ~ $19. All of that was lost due to hold-ups by the Mongolian government, superimposed on fluctuations in the broad market and in the prices of gold and base metals and non-metallic minerals. Expect EGI Entrée Gold prices to jump, too, as will SouthGobi stock (OTC: SGQ in the US).

    As a gold miner, IVN’s share prices have been suppressed by the Mongolian government’s tardiness, resulting in a dramatic underperformance, but that logjam appears to finally be breaking up, and we may see IVN share prices play catch-up in a dramatic fashion over the next few weeks.
    Feb 12, 2009. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Gold Reach $5000 an Ounce? [View article]
    IVN Ivanhoe Mines just got notification (Feb 12, 2009) from the Mongolian Government that the government will accept a 34% stake in Oyu Tolgoi mining resources, which finally (finally !!) means they can go ahead and mine the potentially richest gold-copper resource area in the world with an agreement that will permit profitable production. They've been stalled on this project since 2006, as have other miners like BHP and RTP.

    Just days ago (Feb 10, 2009) SouthGobi Energy Resources, a majority-owned subsidiary of IVN (IVN owns 80.2% of the stock), made a stunning announcement that Alexander Molyneux has been appointed as President of SouthGobi, effective April 29, 2009. Molyneux leaves his position as Citigroup’s head of Metals and Mining Investment Banking, having worked with Asia-based clients since 2002, having raised over $20B in capital for clients in the region and having managed numerous mergers and acquisitions in the Asian metals and mining sector. It seems obvious that Ivanhoe and SouthGobi intend to use Molyneux’s prominence and success in the region to advance the Mongolian SouthGobi project, which involves about over 150,000,000 tons of coal.

    As a parent corporation, Ivanhoe has intertwined itself with two subsidiaries in the enormous and rich Mongolian exploration, development, and production project: SouthGobi Energy Resources and Entrée Gold (EGI). Specialists within Ivanhoe have been appointed and moved around between the three corporations so as to achieve maximum results, while resource leases and licenses have also been re-positioned for optimal results and minimal risk. Mega-miners like RTP and BHP have partnered up with Ivanhoe in Mongolia, and they’ve all been waiting for the fledging Mongolian government to get focused and complete the requisite formal agreements for almost 3 years. Most of the mineral riches produced will be shipped by rail to China, which is just 30 – 50 miles away from the resource districts under development. The core rail lines have already been built, either by the Chinese, or with the cooperation of the Chinese, though more roads and rails will follow.

    Altogether, this explains the timing of the surge in Ivanhoe stock prices over the last couple of days (low of $3.15 on Feb 10, high of $4.20 on Feb 12). A quick chart analysis indicates that there is no resistance between the current IVN stock price around $4 and the next resistance level of $8. 18 months ago the projected price for IVN was ~ $19. All of that was lost due to hold-ups by the Mongolian government, superimposed on fluctuations in the broad market and in the prices of gold and base metals and non-metallic minerals. Expect EGI Entrée Gold prices to jump, too, as will SouthGobi stock (OTC: SGQ in the US).

    As a gold miner, IVN’s share prices have been suppressed by the Mongolian government’s tardiness, resulting in a dramatic underperformance, but that logjam appears to finally be breaking up, and we may see IVN share prices play catch-up in a dramatic fashion over the next few weeks.
    Feb 12, 2009. 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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