Doc 224899

Dr. Stephen Leeb on Commodities and Inflation - Is He a Genius or Alarmist?

The way I read Game Over, Leeb explains the deterioration of our systems of banking and finance as the consequence of the decline in real estate values, and the consequence the people designing mortgage and derivative instruments as having bet that a decline in real estate values would never occur.

The market crash was ultimately due to Peak Oil effects, but the proximate cause was the decline in real estate values.

Leeb is a genius, and he's relying on facts, though he isn't correct about every little detail that he discusses or about every element of timing that he discusses. Nobody could be. As for the broad strokes and the assessment of fundamentals, Leeb is strikingly accurate.

Leeb is also correct about a bunch of other notions that will help you beat the market, if you can understand them well enough to apply them consistently well in unique and unpredictable situations.


On Jun 22 07:23 PM semsem wrote:

> He did not predict the recent market crash. He said the market would
> crash because of $200 oil. Not because of leverage / housing.

Dr. Stephen Leeb on Commodities and Inflation - Is He a Genius or Alarmist?

Great article. I'm on page 132 of "Game Over", and have been reading and re-reading Leeb's "The Coming Economic Collapse" for the last 2 1/2 years. I also read "The Limits to Growth" by MIT and the Club of Rome in 1972, which Leeb quotes in "Game Over".

One distinction Leeb makes is between integrated oil companies, which he discourages people from investing in, and oil services companies, which he recommends.