Buprestid

Is it Different This Time?

This is hardly a peer reviewed site. Anyway I asked for it by making the comment. I will spend sometime to make it an article so you can "review" it.

Is it Different This Time?

I am not talking about just a uniform distribution. Of course it can be any distribution.

I am explaining an example of something that can be characterized as a distribution. Then you can use all the charts and statistical analysis to say what will happen in the long run.

I suggest you take a class if you don't know if something can behave or described by a statistic.

Is it Different This Time?

Sure "this time is different" is wrong 9 out of 10 times or 99 out of 100 times. But sometimes things are different. Large economies can go into decline forever and stock markets don't have to recover.

I hate statisticians in stocks. This is how I would prefer statistics to be done. Prove first fundamentally that something should behave as a statistic. For example rolling a dice mathematically can be shown to have a uniform distribution.

This is how you treat statistics. See a few "rolls" from the past behavior and then declare it to be some statistic and apply it to the to the current period. No proof on why fundamentally it should behave as say a uniform distribution other then incomplete set of variables.