Buprestid

Acute Phase of Liquidity Crisis Has Passed; Bear Market Bottom Around the Corner?

Lets see if your right or close to right. I give you kudos for calling the previous markets lows not the bottom.

This Degree of Volatility Has Only Been Seen Twice Before

Why don't I come up with another statistic of what happened in the past and say it should happen again. Its not so easy. We have a different fundamental economic background driving statistics each and every time. This needs to be taken to account and explained why fundamentally it should behave the same as before.

If investing was so easy then we would just need some math people, equations, and computers.

The Value of Long-Term Investing: A $370K Chart

I would like to be careful with this type of investment strategy. I would classify it as a statistical approach to investing. In this case the author follows some historical data and extrapolates that into the future.

I would argue as follows. Here is a link to historical profits of the S&P500 pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Pa...
Future stock prices will follow historical trends only if profits rise at the same rate and interest free rate of return/inflation matches what we have seen in the past. If you believe that profits will grow as they have historically then go long term and keep buying stocks.

I would like the author to convince me that profits will keep rising and inflation will be controlled instead of showing some historical data. I don't think its a slam dunk that this will occur.

Is it Different This Time?

This is hardly a peer reviewed site. Anyway I asked for it by making the comment. I will spend sometime to make it an article so you can "review" it.

Is it Different This Time?

I am not talking about just a uniform distribution. Of course it can be any distribution.

I am explaining an example of something that can be characterized as a distribution. Then you can use all the charts and statistical analysis to say what will happen in the long run.

I suggest you take a class if you don't know if something can behave or described by a statistic.

Is it Different This Time?

Sure "this time is different" is wrong 9 out of 10 times or 99 out of 100 times. But sometimes things are different. Large economies can go into decline forever and stock markets don't have to recover.

I hate statisticians in stocks. This is how I would prefer statistics to be done. Prove first fundamentally that something should behave as a statistic. For example rolling a dice mathematically can be shown to have a uniform distribution.

This is how you treat statistics. See a few "rolls" from the past behavior and then declare it to be some statistic and apply it to the to the current period. No proof on why fundamentally it should behave as say a uniform distribution other then incomplete set of variables.