Crocodilian

The Last Domino Is Falling: Exports

Exports are falling, yes, but imports are falling far faster. The recent trade deficit numbers showed a %28 drop in the imbalance for November. Some of that is related to a decline in the volume of imports (which is a sign of recession) but some of it is just the decline in the _price_ of imports --oil and other commodities-- (which is basically a good thing).

Don't get me wrong: We have a very sick world economy. But there's a tendency to look at every number in the worst possible light, and that will lead to miscalculation. Things were not as good as they seemed a year ago to the Pollyannas, but they're not as bad as the Cassandras would have us believe.

The drop in imports from China can be related to overall slowing of the economy and so its somewhat equivocal, but the drop in prices paid for oil is just plain good for the US consumer, and the US economy overall.