Crocodilian

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

"1. The Chinese want to live like we do;"

Unfortunately, they can't.

The US, with %5 of the world's population, requires about %25 of the world's energy to live as we do. China has about %18 of the world's population . . . there simply is no way that China can come anywhere near the US consumes.

US energy consumption (2006)
334 million BTU per capita

China energy consumption (2006)
56 million BTU per capita

Because of China's giant population even small increases in per capita energy consumption will crash into supply/price constraints.

Poisoning the Green Shoots

Author writes:
"The soaring debt is the greatest poison. It is one thing to have a large debt in a rapidly growing and young country, it is another to have a large and growing debt in a maturing country facing an aging population "
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yes, that's correct. Demographics are important, but few people talk about them. At an individual household level, it makes perfect sense to take out a mortgage and buy a house when you're thirty . . . it makes very little sense to do so when you're 65.

Nations face similar choices-- and the US is aging very rapidly. Not only does an older population have little ability to produce more, they necessarily consume more expensive healthcare services.

The US median age is about 37 years, and is on its way to the 40s.