Russian Bull

Russia's Economy Contracts by 7% in Q1: Will 2010 Be Even Worse?

Thanks for another well written article.

Russia's Economy Falls at an 8% Annual Rate in January

Once again, a great factual article. Thank you.

Is Russia's Economy Heading Towards the Abyss?

The good news is that the average Russian consumer is in better shape than the average US consumer--less debt, most own their homes outright, and they have experience surviving an economic crisis (even of biblical proportions).

U.S. Debt Default, Dollar Collapse Altogether Likely

I must say, I just stumbled on this article and while it was short, it was very thought provoking as is the comment stream (though it is emotional to say the least).

For me, it seems that the reduced tax revenues--at both the state and federal level--will become the next crux of the current US crisis. It will be interesting to see how that plays out in the next 12-18 months.

With regards to the passing of any storm....I do believe we are going into the backside of the storm so things will get worse before they get better and, again, the reduction in tax revenues will lag behind the market by some 'N' amount of time and its effects are still unknown (though California seems to be giving us a lead on that.)

In terms of the USD....I can only hypothesize that due to the amount of forced liquidations, desire for people to sit on 'cash', and the current fear in the emerging markets (and their currencies), we are simply seeing an increased demand for USD.

Which leads me to the top of this article and the question posed by a commenter: what if you had a printing press in your basement? Would you ever default or would you quietly keep paying the butcher, the baker and the bread maker with your Super Notes?

Ruble's Fall Continues as Russian Unemployment Soars

If then Kremlin really wants to stop the Ruble fall, then they need to perhaps visit their larger banks and trading houses to check on the currency holdings.

It is well known that the largest players are taking their overnight loans and shorting the Ruble--literally taking money from the stabilization fund and depositing it into the pockets of the traders.

While this may be like shooting fish in a barrel in terms of making a short term profit for the banks (and boosting their balance sheets) it is at the expense of the country, its people, and is hamstringing the real economy through a lack of confidence.

I agree that a stable Ruble is a prerequisite to any kind of recovery in Russia--and who knows when that happens and confidence is restored in the Ruble and Russia.

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

I agree with everything except his analysis of Russia (ie, "Russia is toast"). Funny, people throughout history (since the 9th century) have always under estimated Russia and Russians. Most recently, one particular leader with a funny mustache who almost made it to Moscow comes to mind...

But Russia does have a declining population problem--among other severe challenges right now of course--but I have no doubt (based on my own analysis) that Russia will come through this on the other side stronger than before.

Nevertheless, very much enjoyed this article though generally speaking I do prefer blinis and vodka to curries and tea.

Oil Stocks: Where Can You Find Black Gold?

For exposure to the oil and gas market, one should also consider Baker Hughes and Slumberger. As world reserves become more critical for countries that hold massive reserves--Brazil, Russia, Venezuala, et al.--they will look to oil service companies for expertise instead of Western Oil Companies.

Oil service companies will--until US politicians say otherewise--sell their expertise to the highest bidder (with contract and equipment payments up front of course).

Manufacturing Collapse Reminiscent of Great Depression's Beginning

Another well written article. Thank you.

Deleveraging Pushes the Dollar Up

Very interesting article....don't think that I am ready to believe the world is ending...but yes, cash is king right now and everyone is bailing into USD.

It will be interesting (to say the least) to see what happens in February/March 2009.

As Russia Tests the Waters, Oil and Gas Showdown Looms

Great read.

Gold: The Last Carry Trade

I think it's cheap insurance right now. Why not buy 5 ounces, 'just in case'.

Besides, you can always show it off to your date. Drop an ounce of gold into a girl's hand and watch her eyes light up. Cheap thrills, yes, I know, but it beats the hell out hiding in your basement, eating MREs and waiting for the world to end.

TARP Is Just the Beginning - Barron's

I lost all faith in Barron's a few months ago when they recommended GM as a "Buy".

As for "further action"....well, I guess you can lower interest rates but I agree with ScobbyDude that it doesn't mean banks will loan money (or if they do, they may price it higher for a riskier market). Beyond that, I guess you can start giving money to people (again) to spend. Frankly, at this point, not sure what else can be done or should be done as we already have several states going to the Fed with begging bowl in hand.

I'm waiting to see what happens this week with the CDO auctions.

The Die Is Cast

dear owen, turkeys usually live very nice lives full of experience and wisdom and valuable life experiences.

and then thanksgiving rolls around and they get their heads chopped off before they know what is coming.

i'm just saying experience and history aren't always worth the value people put into them.

typing from iphone so mea culpa on lowercase

Is the Dollar Becoming Less Global?

Funny, about a year ago I was speaking with a friend in Russia about this. Could you imagine a gold-backed Rouble? It would change the finance geography overnight....but I don't think it will happen anytime soon. Finance is a gun, politics is knowing when to pull the trigger. Nevertheless, USD are nothing more than the promises of politicians to pay us and we all know where that is going. Is the USD on the wane? Well, for me, I'm a fan of Oil Producer Currencies.

The Family Foresight Thought Experiment

Buy 10 castles, buy some mercenaries, buy some farmland, buy some wives, distribute funds equally, bury the rest under the castles. Roll the dice, have fun while you're alive.

(this is a nice distraction)