Russian Bull

Is the Dollar Becoming Less Global?

Funny, about a year ago I was speaking with a friend in Russia about this. Could you imagine a gold-backed Rouble? It would change the finance geography overnight....but I don't think it will happen anytime soon. Finance is a gun, politics is knowing when to pull the trigger. Nevertheless, USD are nothing more than the promises of politicians to pay us and we all know where that is going. Is the USD on the wane? Well, for me, I'm a fan of Oil Producer Currencies.

The Family Foresight Thought Experiment

Buy 10 castles, buy some mercenaries, buy some farmland, buy some wives, distribute funds equally, bury the rest under the castles. Roll the dice, have fun while you're alive.

(this is a nice distraction)

Emerging Markets: So Much for 'Decoupling'

I agree with the first commenter, Andrew.

I think what we are seeing is simply economic collateral damage from the US. When the smoke and dust settles, I will still be a fan of emerging markets (including Russia) and the GCC markets. I am expanding positions where I can and am very dissapointed the Russian market is locked up--but could be worse, I could be a common shareholder of a Lehman or Fannie.

Rescuing Frannie

I told the Russian SWF not to buy any of this paper. Hopefully they will take this window of opportunity and sell their Fannie and Freddie paper (if the US is going to park the USS Mt. Whitney in Georgia, why not.)

These companies should have been allowed to fail. So much for capitalism. I agree also that what these two 'companies' do can be done better by a pure market-based company and that the market would find its even keel faster and more effectively.

But overall, my impression is, "Svine! When did the US become a centrally planned economy? I thought that period of history was kaput!"

Russian Oil Exports: Dropping, But Why?

I am a fan of the Export Land Model. Not only does the math work, but it makes common sense. I agree that we are seeing more and more "Anti Arab and Russian" rhetoric. I agree with Alexxo in his overall viewpoint of how to do business in the Russian oil patch. To wit, I would suggest BP visit the Slumberger offices and ask for a tutorial. Lastly, BP are big boys and girls. They know the risks--subjective and objective.

Russia will have to deal with the challenges of running off the Majors, but again, I would urge one to visit SLB in Moscow for a glimpse of the future.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

Funny, many people here think the NIMBYs are just going to let you ramp up a LNG terminal off the coast of California or start converting coal into fuel, building nuke plants, etc., etc., etc.

Good luck with that plan. The NIMBYs and City Councils won't let you do jack until its too late...which it already is if you get passed your fear and look at flow rates. Will we ever run out of oil? Hell no. But it will cost you. My advice: go long SLB and RIG as the NOCs need them more than they need the XOM and BPs of the world.

Russia's Too Risky - Barron's

This has to be one of the most thoughtless articles I have read on Seeking Alpha in a long time. Someone give me back those 90 seconds. No, okay, well, let me try and save the future readers: I think Russia is oversold and the Ruble is undervalued and this article blows chunks.

Russia has its problems--no doubt--but in terms of risk I think the perceived risk is much higher than true risk in reality.

Funny, the media makes a lot of noise over Yukos and BP, but the fact of the matter is that Russia has declared the oil and gas industry a "state secure sector". The Western National oil companies are no longer needed by Russia and their contracts are being re-negotiated. That's life in the big city. Ask the shareholders of IndyMac about governmental takeover risk.

China, Russia Exceptions to Global Economic Slowdown

Johnthebear...when was the last time you were in Moscow Russia? Yes, while I agree that the oil props up the economy in Russia for now, that is quickly changing. The Russians are re-tooling their auto industry, their oil SERVICES industry, and their agricultural industry. Last month I was in Russia twice and the country is moving forward even more quickly than I would have imagined even 24 months ago.

That said, there are problems; corruption and red tape are still very bad; getting a visa into the country is challenging; and the Ruble (while undervalued) still has the stigma of the 90s attached to it.

As for surviving the global financial crisis...the Russian Finance industry is very simplistic and I think this will serve them well in the future as our banks pass through the housing MBS blow up, into the credit card CBS blow up; and finally into the wave of derivatives failures.

Gas Lines Coming This Fall

I think this is the worst case scenario. However, I don't believe the best case scenario (everything will stay the same). I think we will see at least half of what Mr. James is presenting here come true in the next few months. While there is plenty of demand destruction occuring in the US, one has to realize that the rest of the world needs diesel and gasoline more than we do. I bet half the posters here aren't aware these is a Diesel fuel shortage in the Middle East.

As for the transition times, I actually think it is too late to transition to any kind of "other" energy without feeling some pain for many people here in the US.

Putting $1T Subprime Mortgage Losses in Perspective

This has to be the worst article I have ever read on Seeking Alpha. Dr. Perry approaches the problem as a simple math problem when the actual problem is much more complex and interconnected then he can obviously imagine. Worse, his flawed logic in arguing with Soros makes me question Dr. Perry's credibility.

Lastly, given he teaches at the University of Michigan--one of the most depressed states in the US (there, I said it, depressesion), but I would imagine that he can probably walk out of his front door and see the effects of a few billion of lost value. Go to some parts of Detroit, stand on a corner, and preach your message there. I'd be curious to see the reception you receive.

Or not. Maybe he is a big fan of "The Secret".