Russian Bull

Russian Oil Exports: Dropping, But Why?

I am a fan of the Export Land Model. Not only does the math work, but it makes common sense. I agree that we are seeing more and more "Anti Arab and Russian" rhetoric. I agree with Alexxo in his overall viewpoint of how to do business in the Russian oil patch. To wit, I would suggest BP visit the Slumberger offices and ask for a tutorial. Lastly, BP are big boys and girls. They know the risks--subjective and objective.

Russia will have to deal with the challenges of running off the Majors, but again, I would urge one to visit SLB in Moscow for a glimpse of the future.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

Funny, many people here think the NIMBYs are just going to let you ramp up a LNG terminal off the coast of California or start converting coal into fuel, building nuke plants, etc., etc., etc.

Good luck with that plan. The NIMBYs and City Councils won't let you do jack until its too late...which it already is if you get passed your fear and look at flow rates. Will we ever run out of oil? Hell no. But it will cost you. My advice: go long SLB and RIG as the NOCs need them more than they need the XOM and BPs of the world.

Gas Lines Coming This Fall

I think this is the worst case scenario. However, I don't believe the best case scenario (everything will stay the same). I think we will see at least half of what Mr. James is presenting here come true in the next few months. While there is plenty of demand destruction occuring in the US, one has to realize that the rest of the world needs diesel and gasoline more than we do. I bet half the posters here aren't aware these is a Diesel fuel shortage in the Middle East.

As for the transition times, I actually think it is too late to transition to any kind of "other" energy without feeling some pain for many people here in the US.