Russian Bull

U.S. Debt Default, Dollar Collapse Altogether Likely

I must say, I just stumbled on this article and while it was short, it was very thought provoking as is the comment stream (though it is emotional to say the least).

For me, it seems that the reduced tax revenues--at both the state and federal level--will become the next crux of the current US crisis. It will be interesting to see how that plays out in the next 12-18 months.

With regards to the passing of any storm....I do believe we are going into the backside of the storm so things will get worse before they get better and, again, the reduction in tax revenues will lag behind the market by some 'N' amount of time and its effects are still unknown (though California seems to be giving us a lead on that.)

In terms of the USD....I can only hypothesize that due to the amount of forced liquidations, desire for people to sit on 'cash', and the current fear in the emerging markets (and their currencies), we are simply seeing an increased demand for USD.

Which leads me to the top of this article and the question posed by a commenter: what if you had a printing press in your basement? Would you ever default or would you quietly keep paying the butcher, the baker and the bread maker with your Super Notes?

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

I agree with everything except his analysis of Russia (ie, "Russia is toast"). Funny, people throughout history (since the 9th century) have always under estimated Russia and Russians. Most recently, one particular leader with a funny mustache who almost made it to Moscow comes to mind...

But Russia does have a declining population problem--among other severe challenges right now of course--but I have no doubt (based on my own analysis) that Russia will come through this on the other side stronger than before.

Nevertheless, very much enjoyed this article though generally speaking I do prefer blinis and vodka to curries and tea.

Gold: The Last Carry Trade

I think it's cheap insurance right now. Why not buy 5 ounces, 'just in case'.

Besides, you can always show it off to your date. Drop an ounce of gold into a girl's hand and watch her eyes light up. Cheap thrills, yes, I know, but it beats the hell out hiding in your basement, eating MREs and waiting for the world to end.