Russian Bull

Russia's Economy Contracts by 7% in Q1: Will 2010 Be Even Worse?

Thanks for another well written article.

Russia's Economy Falls at an 8% Annual Rate in January

Once again, a great factual article. Thank you.

Is Russia's Economy Heading Towards the Abyss?

The good news is that the average Russian consumer is in better shape than the average US consumer--less debt, most own their homes outright, and they have experience surviving an economic crisis (even of biblical proportions).

Ruble's Fall Continues as Russian Unemployment Soars

If then Kremlin really wants to stop the Ruble fall, then they need to perhaps visit their larger banks and trading houses to check on the currency holdings.

It is well known that the largest players are taking their overnight loans and shorting the Ruble--literally taking money from the stabilization fund and depositing it into the pockets of the traders.

While this may be like shooting fish in a barrel in terms of making a short term profit for the banks (and boosting their balance sheets) it is at the expense of the country, its people, and is hamstringing the real economy through a lack of confidence.

I agree that a stable Ruble is a prerequisite to any kind of recovery in Russia--and who knows when that happens and confidence is restored in the Ruble and Russia.

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

I agree with everything except his analysis of Russia (ie, "Russia is toast"). Funny, people throughout history (since the 9th century) have always under estimated Russia and Russians. Most recently, one particular leader with a funny mustache who almost made it to Moscow comes to mind...

But Russia does have a declining population problem--among other severe challenges right now of course--but I have no doubt (based on my own analysis) that Russia will come through this on the other side stronger than before.

Nevertheless, very much enjoyed this article though generally speaking I do prefer blinis and vodka to curries and tea.

As Russia Tests the Waters, Oil and Gas Showdown Looms

Great read.

Emerging Markets: So Much for 'Decoupling'

I agree with the first commenter, Andrew.

I think what we are seeing is simply economic collateral damage from the US. When the smoke and dust settles, I will still be a fan of emerging markets (including Russia) and the GCC markets. I am expanding positions where I can and am very dissapointed the Russian market is locked up--but could be worse, I could be a common shareholder of a Lehman or Fannie.

Russia's Too Risky - Barron's

This has to be one of the most thoughtless articles I have read on Seeking Alpha in a long time. Someone give me back those 90 seconds. No, okay, well, let me try and save the future readers: I think Russia is oversold and the Ruble is undervalued and this article blows chunks.

Russia has its problems--no doubt--but in terms of risk I think the perceived risk is much higher than true risk in reality.

Funny, the media makes a lot of noise over Yukos and BP, but the fact of the matter is that Russia has declared the oil and gas industry a "state secure sector". The Western National oil companies are no longer needed by Russia and their contracts are being re-negotiated. That's life in the big city. Ask the shareholders of IndyMac about governmental takeover risk.

China, Russia Exceptions to Global Economic Slowdown

Johnthebear...when was the last time you were in Moscow Russia? Yes, while I agree that the oil props up the economy in Russia for now, that is quickly changing. The Russians are re-tooling their auto industry, their oil SERVICES industry, and their agricultural industry. Last month I was in Russia twice and the country is moving forward even more quickly than I would have imagined even 24 months ago.

That said, there are problems; corruption and red tape are still very bad; getting a visa into the country is challenging; and the Ruble (while undervalued) still has the stigma of the 90s attached to it.

As for surviving the global financial crisis...the Russian Finance industry is very simplistic and I think this will serve them well in the future as our banks pass through the housing MBS blow up, into the credit card CBS blow up; and finally into the wave of derivatives failures.