Distressed Volatility

S&P Set for 50%+ Gains? Not So Fast, UBS

Obama could be the catalyst though... S&P is right at the 26 yr trend.. But I don't know what to make of the logarithmic chart since 1950... All here

www.distressedvolatili...

When Hedgies Attack: Morgan Stanley Drops 40% on Rumors

Interesting CreditTrader, I like the new CDS exchange idea, maybe some counterparty obligation capital ratio/requirements as well.. I tried to figure out a solution on blog.. This is a disaster, these banks just levered horrible debt investments and insured so called A securities against one another. It seems all risk management relied on moody's/s&p, and once a letter gets taken away, look what happens to AIG and the financial mkts! Could've been cross-default domino game if they didn't get subsidized, plus I understand how everyone can blames the shorts.. but in the end it's how these companies were managed that put them in this mess, and the rating agencies were tooo slowwww. Risk management was fundamentally flawed all around, and nobody can forget smart investors in 2007 coming out publically on tv saying we could see big problems down the road, with spreads tight and vix low. www.distressedvolatili.../

Wall Street, R.I.P. Now What?

If the consumer can't remain resilient to this mess... then we will have a major problem.

Banks on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

The question is, does the tax payer bail out more banks that are invested in securitized consumer loans, revolving credit cards.. They were packaged inside high yield fixed income funds (morgan keegan for example) all over the place. While real estate is the shelter of the economy, consumer credits are the blood of the economy, and since these credits are spread out all over the place as well as held on banks balance sheets does that mean, if the economy enters recession, those write downs will have to bailed out too? Of course if this economy doesn't all of the sudden turn and provide everyone jobs based on this socialist intervention, there might not be a problem. The thing is, people who didn't even buy a house still might be way overlevered on their credit cards or other personal loans.. www.distressedvolatili...