Distressed Volatility

S&P 500's PE Ratio of 139 Isn't Sustainable

the whole P/E is messed up.. It is a floating multiple you can't really argue with the market until it is proven wrong right? If going forward there's 70 EPS expected in 2010, that with a historical 15 multiple it is where we are trading today 1,050..

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S&P Set for 50%+ Gains? Not So Fast, UBS

Obama could be the catalyst though... S&P is right at the 26 yr trend.. But I don't know what to make of the logarithmic chart since 1950... All here

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Yield Curve Near 10-Year Highs

You know what that's very interesting. When the recovery comes, there will be so much money sloshing around that inflation will roar back to life. I'm thinking the yield curve is so steep because they're going to shoot down the inflation by tightening. People will also dump treasuries paying nothing real. Plus the oil futures curve is very steep going out to 2015. Hmmmm we'll see what happens.. distressedvolatility.c...

Dow 10,000: Does Anybody Care?

The Dow Jones Industrials just broke through a major 10,000 support level, which was created from the '94 and '02 lows. Jim is saying we could fall 20% from here and he could be right if we don't see a capitulation volume day with a reversal over 10,000. The post '87 crash to '94 bottoms, disregarding the tech bubble lows, brings us to 8,000 on the Dow, which is about 20% below today's levels. blog has jims video with 25yr chart trend.. crazy times.. distressedvolatility.c...

Fear and Greed: Premise for Capitulation and Overreaction

ha a little spelling problem there

Fear and Greed: Premise for Capitulation and Overreaction

"Einhorn at Greenlight and others at similar firms colluded in spreading rumors, lies and innuendo. This will be borne out by SEC investigations that will result in many of these liars going straight to the federal pen."

Wow, first off this guy has youtube videos making presentations to the public on why he's shorting stocks. I'm thinking the CEO's, CFO's Analysts and Assistant Analysts, Underwriting Staff at these banks should've applied more risk management in their models. These banks levered bets backed were all backed by a house of cards and illiquid insurance (swaps) backed by every other bank that was doing the same thing! It was a mess from the start, these public banks wouldn'tve done this if the owners/managers were playing with their own money don't you think.. I'm thinking hedge funds will just take over the role, and get big, merge and go public and the cycle will just happen again in 20 years. ???

Expect the Real Rally by Mid-2009

Is Lehman going to be the last big institution to have it's assets dumped on the market at distressed levels?? That's the problem, I'd like to see a debt delevering index or create one to see the debt transfers for everything that's being reorganized at distressed levels.. I'd be convinced of a turn around once that type of chart bottoms out..

distressedvolatility.c...