Celcius

U.S. Quantitative Easing Has Just Begun

The US has more than enough qualified workers within our citizenry. This is a game of wage economics using an immigration law to undercut domestic wage earners. I am in the tech industry which is under assault from lower wage foreign workers who have lower qualifications that are replacing higher qualified US workers. My brother who has worked at Microsoft has had to train multiple Indian workers to perform his job. And, if you refuse to train them then Microsoft puts you on a blacklist and will not hire you for any other projects. I have worked with H-1b employees who have told me that their Indian friends have blatantly lied on their qualifications to land very high paying jobs. One of them was hired by Fannie Mae for a six figure salary with no experience in the job role he was hired.

If US companies want to hire foreign workers then they should outsource them to India or China. At least these wages are recorded in the Current Account Balance and will cause currency appreciation in the outsourcing country. H-1b's undercut this process by suppressing local wages indefinitely. Outsourcing wage costs would rise with the currency appreciation. Especially, as the dollar depreciates against other major currencies making domestic wages more competitive.


On Sep 23 08:21 PM inthemoney wrote:

> > If Obama wants to create jobs for US citizens he needs to permanently
> end the H-1B, H-2B, etc.. foreign worker programs. This would significantly
> reduce unemployment for US CITIZENS. There is no excuse as to why
> these programs should remain with 16+% unemployment (full & part-time).
> Corporate America has used these foreign worker programs to undercut
> US salaries, and fatten executive salaries.
>
> If you ban H1Bs these jobs will simply be exported as well because
> there are simply not enough qualified americans in certain areas.
> We need to get more H1Bs , they are educated hardworking people who
> will be spending their money here in the US, buying the houses in
> the US, they don't need our tax dollar support like illegal immigrants,
> they pay SSN even though they are never going to use it unless they
> eventually become citizens.
> In short, you are barking at a wrong tree.

U.S. Quantitative Easing Has Just Begun

I am not blaming the H-1b workers. And, yes they are very hard working people. I am advocating that we can resolve a major part of our unemployment problem by eliminating laws that increase the available domestic pool of workers. It is a supply side issue to a demand problem.

In regards to the economic meltdown there are several major factors that have contributed: greed, repeal of the Glass-Steagal Act, Greenspan's creation of cyclical bubbles via low interest rates, the shadow banking system (GS & crew), CDO's, SIV's, CDS's, ratings agencies, and the failure of our government regulatory agency's.


On Sep 23 05:55 PM cash wrote:

> >>If Obama wants to create jobs for US citizens he needs to permanently
> end the H-1B, H-2B, etc.. foreign worker programs.
>
> That is it! Blame the unemployment on these earnest, hard-working,
> educated and under paid folks! Not the banksters, house flipping
> spend-thrifts and the union thugs that pocketed billions at the expense
> of tax payers. Of course not, the banksters own the treasury &
> fed, the unions own the politicians. They are untouchable.

U.S. Quantitative Easing Has Just Begun

If Obama wants to create jobs for US citizens he needs to permanently end the H-1B, H-2B, etc.. foreign worker programs. This would significantly reduce unemployment for US CITIZENS. There is no excuse as to why these programs should remain with 16+% unemployment (full & part-time). Corporate America has used these foreign worker programs to undercut US salaries, and fatten executive salaries.

Corporate law should also require cost cutting employee pay cuts to start from the top down at the same proportional rate as all workers. If labor gets a haircut, then start at the top! The same with layoff's, top down.

Prepare for a Lower Dow to Gold Ratio

User, Gold has the potential to fall in the short-term, but it depends on investor sentiment toward US treasuries. As Alt-A, Option Arm, and Commercial Real Estate loans devastate US banks balance sheets, equity investors may flee to the safety of gold bullion, causing a gold demand spike, vs. US treasuries despite massive deflation in the money supply. Or they flee to US treasuries and the price of gold drops due to the deflationary pressure on the money supply.

There is certainly a tipping point where investors will lose confidence in the ability of the US government to replay debt, especially during high rates of deflation, and opt for an alternative medium of exchange vs. the dollar. In the next few years IMO gold will fill this void until the world economy recovers and a risk averse fiat currency appears.

Disclosure: 10% gold bullion position & 1% gold equity position

Unemployment: Historical Chart Sends Scary Message

How about writing something relative to the article vs. comment Spam.


On Aug 12 11:33 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> 67i. Welcome to the “square root” shaped recovery. That is the likely
> shape of the recovery curve we can expect over the coming years.
> If you back out what I call the “2000’s fluff” of excess car production,
> liar loans, using the home ATM for serial, annual refinancings, excess
> consumption, unneeded home construction to account for the new frugality,
> US GDP growth drops by 1%. Chop off another 1% for deleveraging in
> all its forms, including lower leverage ratios, the end of the collaterized
> debt markets and credit default swaps, ultra high junk yields, bond
> ratings for sale, and the new conservatism of CFO’s and auditors.
> That leaves you with the 1% growth rate that Japan has seen for the
> last 20 years. That means falling standard of livings, an unemployment
> rate permanently stuck at German style double digits, endemic deflation,
> a collapsing dollar, a comatose real estate market, and moribund
> stock markets. Where are the 37 million jobs going to come from that
> American needs over the next decade? If your kid is going to graduate
> from college soon, or cash out from the army, he better start learning
> Mandarin.
>
> 3% Average US GDP growth rate 2002-2007
> -1% Bank deleveraging
> -1% 2000’s fluff-liar loans, excess home construction, excess car
> production
> -1% real GDP growth 2010-2020

Why Aren't We Undergoing Another Great Depression?

"Did I tell you about the chariot price trend in 1203?"

There was a big bailout in the UK chariot business in 1205. French imported chariots with the Croissant and Brie holders were all the rage. It caught the Brits by total surprise. They tried to counter with a Haggis holder which ultimately flopped except in Scotland. So, the RBS had to be bailed out, because it made bad loans to Triumph Chariots and their grain guzzlers.


On Aug 10 08:04 PM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

> Is re-writing history a disease today?
>
> Recessions are caused by over expansion not because of the calendar.
> When Walter Heller, LBJ's chief economic adviser, wrote "We control
> the business cycle", I threw the book away. Not responding to over-expansion
> is like not responding to a heart attack. Call an economist at it
> will go away.
>
> What nonsense and counter-productive as it ignores reality and lulls
> people into false security.
>
> At a time when our country, as well as the world, has a debt load
> that is close to not being capable of service by our GDP we should
> not be listening to politicians, academics, economists and commentators
> that spout untenable theories.
>
> Tell me the conclusion and agenda you have and want, give me a choice
> of time periods, and I will deliver the answers you want. Did I
> tell you about the chariot price trend in 1203?

Why Isn't the Dollar Falling?

My understanding is that our federal debt is only around 25% of our total debt. So, the first chart above distorts the actual debt burden by nation by not including State, City, and personal debt. Especially, when you consider that the French and German's save on average over 10% of their income.

I would love to see a chart that displays total debt, total equity, and total income so that solvency and ability to repay debt could be assessed.

On Jul 19 09:16 PM damienhaas wrote:

> Agree with you on the leveraging, The bank leverage is higher in
> Europe than US but the consumer and other personal leverage are higher
> in US than Europe.

The Shrinking American Consumer

IMO you hit the nail on the head. They are buying time for the rich to cover losses and rebalance their financial positions.


On May 19 11:49 AM Leftfield wrote:

> Eye of the hurricane. We've spent trillions more, none to directly
> help regular citizens. With real estate and 401's cut in half, job
> losses and aging of baby boomers, spend till you drop is dead.
>
> I can only think the plunge protection team ginned up this nice rally
> so if we don't get a Goldilocks recover somehow at least the upper
> tier will have bought some time with our money to leave the Titanic.

The Economic Pain Ain't Over Yet

The government data is a lie... It's all lies...


On May 02 11:26 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> But also keep in mind that economic data tends to either lag and
> or be insignificant with regards to the scope of the economy. The
> huge funds with propriety market may bid the markets in anticipation
> of improving govt. released numbers down the road.
>
> ------------------------
> Rather I like - let me correct - I love data and statistics. Why
> do I love data and statistics? Because they do not lie. CEOs of top
> banks lie, politicians lie and many others giving opinions lie. Data,
> if read properly, does not lie. So, my friends, why is the data leading
> me to my continued pessimism?

Government's New Credit Approach: Does the End Justify the Means?

If the market is going much higher, then why is the corporate insiders buy/sell ratio 1 to 8.43. And, the stocks with the highest gains have very poor financial's. It looks more like small investors playing the lottery. American's haven't lost there appetite for casino capitalism.

And, as Peter Schiff mentioned, the securitization market is not what it used to be.

If you look at the 50 and 200 day moving averages this market is losing steam, overstretched, and do for a correction. IMO investor behavior is mirroring the 1929 crash.


On Apr 25 06:07 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Yup..don't fight the upside. Charts say market going much higher.
> The hype recession is over. Crisis fixed.

Notes on the Impending Market Reversal

You are so perma-bull. Make some stock picks publicly and lets track your success!


On Apr 16 12:49 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Trepidation begets a bull market and euphoria completes it.

CNBC Declares a Quick Recovery - Could the Pundits Be Wrong Again?

Until the real money players enter the market I am sitting on the sidelines. They have better access to the real financial data than most investors. Most of us are very small fish in a very big pond. Until we start to see the whales, I would invest with caution.

"The real money investors are still waiting. I think they're waiting, they're watching. They want to make sure that what we saw in March is real," NYSE Chief Executive Duncan Niederauer was cited as saying by the Financial Times newspaper on Thursday.

It's Raining Bulls Today

The FED and Geithner sure know how to spend. But will they have the tools available to control inflation? Do you really think they can raise interest rates high enough to contract the money supply once the economy starts to heat up. I don't think we will be able service the debt.

I'm Skeptical About This Rally

I think these stimulus packages are causing irrational exuberance as the Fed and Treasury attempt to re inflate the bubble. This Country and our Corporations are insolvent. They piled on debt financed by 80% of the worlds savings. Do you really thing that the world will keep financing this fiasco? I believe that we are at a tipping point. The US as the world's reserve currency is coming to an end. It happened to England after WWI. And, I believe that it will happen to us in the coming decade.

I am long on the EURO. I don't think the EU has the stomach for the political consequences of high inflation; especially, since the Nazi's emerged out the hyper-inflation of the 20's.