clu.invesment's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/225778/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/98889-another-analyst-likes-capstone?source=feed#comment-276365 276365
3months ago CPST was over $4. I'M A BUYER NOW and will ride it up. New orders soon & CPST explodes over $2. buying now is a low risk play and huge reward gain.

World orders getting built= $$$$$$$]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 20:57:30 -0400
3months ago CPST was over $4. I'M A BUYER NOW and will ride it up. New orders soon & CPST explodes over $2. buying now is a low risk play and huge reward gain.

World orders getting built= $$$$$$$]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98889-another-analyst-likes-capstone?source=feed#comment-275945 275945
CPST over $2 before this year is up.
]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:25:24 -0400
CPST over $2 before this year is up.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97665-3-ways-to-profit-from-the-renewable-energy-bill?source=feed#comment-268071 268071 seekingalpha.com/artic...

READ CPST ENERGY ARTICLE I'M BUYING]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 23:19:38 -0400 seekingalpha.com/artic...

READ CPST ENERGY ARTICLE I'M BUYING]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97721-spain-approves-up-to-500mw-for-solar-projects-in-2009?source=feed#comment-268069 268069 seekingalpha.com/artic...

great article buying CPST]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 23:17:23 -0400 seekingalpha.com/artic...

great article buying CPST]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97631-analysts-see-value-in-cpst?source=feed#comment-268061 268061
The World needs Energy and CPST has a great source. ]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 23:05:04 -0400
The World needs Energy and CPST has a great source. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97631-analysts-see-value-in-cpst?source=feed#comment-268059 268059 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 22:58:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93208-sirius-xm-recovers-the-ball?source=feed#comment-241441 241441 Mel is a great champion and defender of the Sirius brand. IMHO he will grow this company faster than GS can imagine. Hearing rumors about Mel communicating his plan after labor day.

Premium content sharing between SIRI and XM e.g. $16M+ additional annual revenue just from XM Stern subscribers
New hardware dual band, content specific, ?
Video
Synergies Progress Update and Date Certain
Additional Synergies in tens of $M"
CITI Buy SIRI - The stock has been hurt by the difficult macro backdrop and auto production slowdown; however, I believe SIRI is massively undervalued as investors fail to appreciate the size of merger synergies, the opportunity for top line improvement with new plans and the benefits of greater OEM penetration.
Value is in the Content - Reports of a new internet streaming application that would allow SIRI users to get content on their iPhones and other portable devices are now emerging and highlight that SIRI’s value lies in its content and not its hardware or infrastructure.



]]> Fri, 29 Aug 2008 08:07:51 -0400 Mel is a great champion and defender of the Sirius brand. IMHO he will grow this company faster than GS can imagine. Hearing rumors about Mel communicating his plan after labor day.

Premium content sharing between SIRI and XM e.g. $16M+ additional annual revenue just from XM Stern subscribers
New hardware dual band, content specific, ?
Video
Synergies Progress Update and Date Certain
Additional Synergies in tens of $M"
CITI Buy SIRI - The stock has been hurt by the difficult macro backdrop and auto production slowdown; however, I believe SIRI is massively undervalued as investors fail to appreciate the size of merger synergies, the opportunity for top line improvement with new plans and the benefits of greater OEM penetration.
Value is in the Content - Reports of a new internet streaming application that would allow SIRI users to get content on their iPhones and other portable devices are now emerging and highlight that SIRI’s value lies in its content and not its hardware or infrastructure.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92738-sirius-xm-belt-tightening-begins?source=feed#comment-239880 239880 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 08:25:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91934-gm-s-discount-promotion-could-boost-satellite-radio-subscription-numbers?source=feed#comment-235460 235460 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:29:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88772-loading-up-for-some-sirius-gains?source=feed#comment-221913 221913
Also: Traders Desk e-mail message

XM and Sirius previously traded hugely over-valued, when compared to their Book Value (P/B Ratio). Sirius, for example, had a book value of ($0.56), while they traded at $2; while XM’s was ($3.43) and they traded at $10.The current Pro-Forma Book Value is approximately $1.62 — and the stock is trading at $1.46. In other words, it is undervalued… for the first time ever. I wonder how many on the Street actually looked at the Pro-Forma condensed financials of the company filed last week? Given the fact that the Street had routinely overvalued this sector as individual companies — the fact that is undervalued as a merged company is interesting. Interesting because, if they can demonstrate some of what they’re claiming… then this undervaluation will likely correct quickly.

Last Friday I coverd a large short position and added a long position in SIRI I expect stock will see a Earnings run up this week to $1.75 range to $2 possible & I expect the stock will trade around 1.5x Book value before years end around $2.50 to $3 a share.

Watch for UBS to upgrade SIRI they did the deal & are buying on the open market Friday they crossed in 2 large blocks 9.7M & 7.6M.

]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 23:22:35 -0400
Also: Traders Desk e-mail message

XM and Sirius previously traded hugely over-valued, when compared to their Book Value (P/B Ratio). Sirius, for example, had a book value of ($0.56), while they traded at $2; while XM’s was ($3.43) and they traded at $10.The current Pro-Forma Book Value is approximately $1.62 — and the stock is trading at $1.46. In other words, it is undervalued… for the first time ever. I wonder how many on the Street actually looked at the Pro-Forma condensed financials of the company filed last week? Given the fact that the Street had routinely overvalued this sector as individual companies — the fact that is undervalued as a merged company is interesting. Interesting because, if they can demonstrate some of what they’re claiming… then this undervaluation will likely correct quickly.

Last Friday I coverd a large short position and added a long position in SIRI I expect stock will see a Earnings run up this week to $1.75 range to $2 possible & I expect the stock will trade around 1.5x Book value before years end around $2.50 to $3 a share.

Watch for UBS to upgrade SIRI they did the deal & are buying on the open market Friday they crossed in 2 large blocks 9.7M & 7.6M.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88772-loading-up-for-some-sirius-gains?source=feed#comment-221857 221857
Merrill notes :Modest subscriber upside; revenues in-line
Retail net adds of 33.6k improved from 1Q08 net adds of just 2.5k and above our
6.5k estimate. Improvement in retail and an increase in the conversion rate to
48% from 47% in 1Q08 are encouraging signs that consumer adoption of satellite
radio remains strong even as the subscriber base expands into more mainstream
demographics/incomes. Sirius’ self-pay churn of 1.6% improved from 2.1% in
1Q08 and was slightly better than XM’s 1.67% 2Q08 self-pay churn. 246k OEM
net adds were 3.5% below our estimate and reflect the weakening U.S. auto
sector. With penetration in new auto production projected to climb to ~70% in
2009 (from ~50% in 2008), we expect the OEM channel to re-accelerate.
SAC improvement drives EBITDA upside
Revenues in-line with our estimate at $283mn (+25% Y/Y), but SIRI held costs flat
Y/Y (versus our 4% projected growth), yielding a projected EBITDA loss of just
$24mn, versus our projected $35mn EBITDA loss and 1Q08 loss of $39mn. 25%
subscriber and revenue growth with 0% cost growth reflects SAC improvement
and the high operating leverage of the satellite radio model, with 70% contribution
margin from new subs. Sirius alone is quickly approaching EBITDA breakeven,
and merger synergies with XM should accelerate EBITDA and FCF growth.
Wrapping up XM merger details
XM announced a $550mn offering of Senior Subordinated Notes due 2014, which
will be exchangeable into Sirius stock. Concurrently with the Notes offering, Sirius
commenced an equity offering to facilitate hedging the new Notes. Sirius will not
receive proceeds from new shares ($375mn initially and up to $65mn additional
shares), except a nominal loan fee. Because the borrowed shares must be
returned to Sirius upon maturity of the Notes, they will not be considered
outstanding for accounting purposes and will not be included in EPS calculations.
Investment summary
Strong operating leverage and high contribution from new subs should drive an
acceleration in EBITDA and FCF. Improving trends in retail and improving
conversion rates in the OEM channel should allow Sirius/XM to capitalize on the
more widespread availability of satellite radio in the ~245mn U.S. auto fleet. We
reiterate our Buy rating and $4.50 price objective for the combined Sirius-XM.

MY ADVICE DON'T BE TRICKED INTO SELLING BUY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN THIS WILL MOVE UP BACK OVER $2 SOON.]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 21:23:16 -0400
Merrill notes :Modest subscriber upside; revenues in-line
Retail net adds of 33.6k improved from 1Q08 net adds of just 2.5k and above our
6.5k estimate. Improvement in retail and an increase in the conversion rate to
48% from 47% in 1Q08 are encouraging signs that consumer adoption of satellite
radio remains strong even as the subscriber base expands into more mainstream
demographics/incomes. Sirius’ self-pay churn of 1.6% improved from 2.1% in
1Q08 and was slightly better than XM’s 1.67% 2Q08 self-pay churn. 246k OEM
net adds were 3.5% below our estimate and reflect the weakening U.S. auto
sector. With penetration in new auto production projected to climb to ~70% in
2009 (from ~50% in 2008), we expect the OEM channel to re-accelerate.
SAC improvement drives EBITDA upside
Revenues in-line with our estimate at $283mn (+25% Y/Y), but SIRI held costs flat
Y/Y (versus our 4% projected growth), yielding a projected EBITDA loss of just
$24mn, versus our projected $35mn EBITDA loss and 1Q08 loss of $39mn. 25%
subscriber and revenue growth with 0% cost growth reflects SAC improvement
and the high operating leverage of the satellite radio model, with 70% contribution
margin from new subs. Sirius alone is quickly approaching EBITDA breakeven,
and merger synergies with XM should accelerate EBITDA and FCF growth.
Wrapping up XM merger details
XM announced a $550mn offering of Senior Subordinated Notes due 2014, which
will be exchangeable into Sirius stock. Concurrently with the Notes offering, Sirius
commenced an equity offering to facilitate hedging the new Notes. Sirius will not
receive proceeds from new shares ($375mn initially and up to $65mn additional
shares), except a nominal loan fee. Because the borrowed shares must be
returned to Sirius upon maturity of the Notes, they will not be considered
outstanding for accounting purposes and will not be included in EPS calculations.
Investment summary
Strong operating leverage and high contribution from new subs should drive an
acceleration in EBITDA and FCF. Improving trends in retail and improving
conversion rates in the OEM channel should allow Sirius/XM to capitalize on the
more widespread availability of satellite radio in the ~245mn U.S. auto fleet. We
reiterate our Buy rating and $4.50 price objective for the combined Sirius-XM.

MY ADVICE DON'T BE TRICKED INTO SELLING BUY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN THIS WILL MOVE UP BACK OVER $2 SOON.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88772-loading-up-for-some-sirius-gains?source=feed#comment-221689 221689
He's also expecting Mel will give investors some very encouraging news this week. He believes the share price will move back over $2 after the earnings report and says smart shorts will cover ahead of earnings.


Investment club member highlights:
"Mel has always under promised and over
delivered on his forecasts since he
joined Sirius. You can bet if he said
400m in Synergies in 2009 , it will
be at least 500m to 600m !!!
Sirius doesn't
have to refinance any debt for years.
2.0 Billion of the long term debt is not
even due for over 5 YEARS and by that
time the Markets will probably have
recovered and more reasonable financing
would be available.

Retail
subscribers slowed because the merger
was in limbo for 17 months !!! Last
QTR Sirius/XM added over 2.0 Million
in NEW OEM gross adds. Even through
car sales are way down Sirius and XM
both had record new OEM adds because
the OEMS percentage wise are installing
more Satellite Radios with penetration
rates over 70% for the 2009 model year.

Sirius and
XM have an excellent pool of management
talent and the combination of the
new company will allow them to take the
management talent from both companies
and retain the best employees after
synergies.

Sirius has gone from 100k subscribers
and revenue of $67M in 2004 . To 18.5
Million subscribers and $2.2 Billion
in annualized revenue over a 4 year period."]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 15:52:56 -0400
He's also expecting Mel will give investors some very encouraging news this week. He believes the share price will move back over $2 after the earnings report and says smart shorts will cover ahead of earnings.


Investment club member highlights:
"Mel has always under promised and over
delivered on his forecasts since he
joined Sirius. You can bet if he said
400m in Synergies in 2009 , it will
be at least 500m to 600m !!!
Sirius doesn't
have to refinance any debt for years.
2.0 Billion of the long term debt is not
even due for over 5 YEARS and by that
time the Markets will probably have
recovered and more reasonable financing
would be available.

Retail
subscribers slowed because the merger
was in limbo for 17 months !!! Last
QTR Sirius/XM added over 2.0 Million
in NEW OEM gross adds. Even through
car sales are way down Sirius and XM
both had record new OEM adds because
the OEMS percentage wise are installing
more Satellite Radios with penetration
rates over 70% for the 2009 model year.

Sirius and
XM have an excellent pool of management
talent and the combination of the
new company will allow them to take the
management talent from both companies
and retain the best employees after
synergies.

Sirius has gone from 100k subscribers
and revenue of $67M in 2004 . To 18.5
Million subscribers and $2.2 Billion
in annualized revenue over a 4 year period."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84743-analysts-note-latest-satellite-radio-merger-angles?source=feed#comment-204855 204855
7/14/2008 Top Traders Pick: XM SATELLITE RADIO(NasdaqGS: XMSR)Rated NEW 'Strong Buy' Current price $7.81

Note: XMSR is trading at a huge discount based on the SIRI/XMSR merger share holders will end up with 4.6 shares of SIRI for every 1 share of XMSR and SIRI has a current share price of $2.13 x 4.6 = $9.79 per share instant value for XMSR share holders. XMSR stock is 25% undervalued compared to SIRI share price.

Added Note: Buying XMSR at current $7.81 is the same as buying SIRI at $1.70 per share as $1.70 x 4.6 = $7.82 per share.


----------------------...
Disclaimer: The information provided above is believed to be accurate. We do not give investment advice, nor do we at any time manage or direct the funds of any person or company other than our own. Positions contained in this report are our own personal ideas and thoughts and are not intended as trading advice for readers. This report is issued solely for informational and entertainment purposes and content is not to be construed as being an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.


]]> Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:25:43 -0400
7/14/2008 Top Traders Pick: XM SATELLITE RADIO(NasdaqGS: XMSR)Rated NEW 'Strong Buy' Current price $7.81

Note: XMSR is trading at a huge discount based on the SIRI/XMSR merger share holders will end up with 4.6 shares of SIRI for every 1 share of XMSR and SIRI has a current share price of $2.13 x 4.6 = $9.79 per share instant value for XMSR share holders. XMSR stock is 25% undervalued compared to SIRI share price.

Added Note: Buying XMSR at current $7.81 is the same as buying SIRI at $1.70 per share as $1.70 x 4.6 = $7.82 per share.


----------------------...
Disclaimer: The information provided above is believed to be accurate. We do not give investment advice, nor do we at any time manage or direct the funds of any person or company other than our own. Positions contained in this report are our own personal ideas and thoughts and are not intended as trading advice for readers. This report is issued solely for informational and entertainment purposes and content is not to be construed as being an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84743-analysts-note-latest-satellite-radio-merger-angles?source=feed#comment-204682 204682 Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:50:45 -0400