Swiss_Buffett

Starbucks Earnings Will Suffer From Closures Through Mid 2009

Todd, I have been reading all your posts here on SBUX, and you have been right in basically every single aspect. However, I wonder how much worse the news might still get for SBUX as the stock has not sold off much since their Q3/FY08 earnings release. I wonder if there is more downside for the stock price. My "feeling" is that as long as the international story remains intact, maybe $14/$15 is the bottom. Also there is this Peltz investor who might keep accumulating shares at these prices, putting a floor under the stock price.

But could the international story turn sour on them? I think it could. China's largest export market (the U.S.) is in pain and it should be expected that this will cause a slowdown in China as well. Interestingly, HSBC Bank in their latest earnings release spoke of (starting) slowdowns in some parts of Asia, and they can feel the pulse pretty well in the region I would think...

I guess a good indicator would be if insiders started buying the shares again. Even Schultz has bought nothing since he became CEO again. Not exactly a sign of great conviction.

Sorry for my rather incoherent rambling. I would like to buy SBUX but I guess the best is to just stand-by for now, as you say.