kram1689

kram1689
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  • Another upgrade for mortgage REITs  [View news story]
    We, all are all looking at mREITs at different angles.

    Let me suggest you another different view.

    What's the purpose of investing in mREITs?
    Dividends/income? or Capital gains?

    If it is capital appreciation, you are in the wrong sector. Move on.
    If it is not capital appreciation, than down/upgrade is meanless.

    In this sector, anything matter is dividends/interest payout and the entry point of your cash. Both affect your return of investment.

    That's it. Your ROI will go down and go up as long as they are not de-listed.
    This was why CIM did a reverse-split.

    Unlike growth stocks, you know your ROI before your purchase. It might go up/down, but it is there and is producing.
    Oct 13, 2015. 02:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: MORL Correlations And Strategies II, Financial Stocks  [View article]
    Is this a joke? Am I the only one? Why would mREITs have anything to do with Financial Stocks or Bank Stocks?
    Sep 29, 2015. 05:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Cuts: The Return Of The REITs  [View article]
    The problem is in uncertainty. We know Fed will raise the rate, but WHEN?
    mREITs flourish only in stable and rigid environment.
    For example,
    If Fed says, we won't touch the rate for 3 years, then mREITs can maximize their spread for 2.5 years.
    Sep 23, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Fed Chair Janet Yellen To MORL's Rescue  [View article]
    What I really love to read is an article about "what if" of MORL.
    Let's assume MORE == $5.00 and do a reverse calculation to see what are the possible sticker price of underlying mREITs.
    The reason is very simple. Knowing that kind of data, it is easier for people who know NLY/AGNC/CIM... inside out to estimate the possibility of that kind of situation.
    Sep 22, 2015. 05:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Fed Chair Janet Yellen To MORL's Rescue  [View article]
    I believe "do my own research".
    The VALUE of mREITs is "REAL constant ROI producing".
    If you "do my research", then you will not hit "panic button".
    Since mREITs have similar risks, pick the king of mREITs or get out of mREITs investment.

    Let's see what is "REAL constant ROI producing".
    go to UBS ETRACS web site, pick MORL, pick Distribution.
    The MORL initial public offerings is $25.00 around 10/17/2012 .
    Let's total all the distribution from 10/17/2012 to today.
    Total up to now distributions = .1043 + 5.3710 + 4.4029 + 3.1799 = 13.0581
    Total months from 10/17/2012 to today about 35 months
    Yearly return == 13.0581 / 25 / 35 month * 12 month = 0.17908251428 ~= 17.91%
    Not counting any reinvestment, tax, expense, margin...etc.
    "REAL constant ROI producing" in not paper weight on the paper.
    The money is real. Let me repeat it again the money is real.

    People will certainly ask "why you not compute the paper capital gain/loss?"
    It is a good question if only if you do not do "do my own research".

    The only catch of MORL is "Acceleration upon Minimum Indicative Value:"
    Please read MORL's product supplement and make your own sound decisions.
    At that time, one has to realize the capital loss.Let me repeat it again, at that time, one MUST realize the capital loss of MORL.
    Sep 22, 2015. 04:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Down Side For Oracle Is Still Up  [View article]
    "Oracle has quite a bit of long term debt. I don't know why."
    It is a trick used by lots of companies to counter IRS foreign income tax.
    Since the interest rate is near zero, they just keep selling bonds for shares buyback.
    Sep 18, 2015. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment: Update #2, 13 Months Later  [View article]
    FYI, do not confuse dividend investment or debt Investments with growth stocks or equity Investments.
    Please do your research and make your choices wisely.
    Research can give you confidence and resist your herd instinct in a crazy markets.

    If one want to do LONG calculation without Reinvestment and margin and tax, one should go to http://tinyurl.com/q5r... and get distributions data
    From 1/22/2015 to 8/20/2015
    Total up to now distributions = .1043 + 5.3710 + 4.4029 + 3.1310 = 13.0092
    The MORL initial public offerings is $25.00
    The total duration is from 10/17/2012 to today about 34 months
    Now the presumption here is $25 a share, LONG for 34 months, NO reinvestment, PreTax, No margin, No expense....
    The return rate is 13.0092 / 34 * 12 / 25 = 18.36%
    Aug 30, 2015. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Impacted By Enormous Price To Book Swing - MORL Yielding 27.6%  [View article]
    If one want to do LONG calculation without Reinvestment and margin and tax, one should go to http://tinyurl.com/q5r... and get distributions data
    From 1/22/2015 to 8/20/2015
    Total up to now distributions = .1043 + 5.3710 + 4.4029 + 3.1310 = 13.0092
    The MORL initial public offerings is $25.00
    The total duration is from 10/17/2012 to today about 34 months
    Now the presumption here is $25 a share, LONG for 34 months, NO reinvestment, PreTax, No margin, No expense....
    The return rate is 13.0092 / 34 * 12 / 25 = 18.36%
    Aug 30, 2015. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Impacted By Enormous Price To Book Swing - MORL Yielding 27.6%  [View article]
    FYI, while waiting for the curve valley.
    I made a spreadsheet for MORL LONG after tax Reinvestment.
    move to a tax free state.
    68% margin maintenance 4x get me about 3% more roi.
    Give up US citizenship with 30% tax, get me about 8% more roi.
    Aug 30, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN: A Pragmatic Approach  [View article]
    Are you saying UBS is changing the "underlying mechanism" all the time to suite UBS's needs?
    So if AGNC and NLY and mREITS go down and UBS changes its "underlying mechanism", then MORL will go up????
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment: Update #2, 13 Months Later  [View article]

    Just want to point out longrundata.com does not do LONG calculation.
    If one want to do LONG calculation without Reinvestment and margin and tax, one should go to http://etracs.ubs.com get distribution data (.1043 + 5.3710 + 4.4029 + 3.1310) / 34 months * 12 months / $25(initial MORL value)=18.36%
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN: A Pragmatic Approach  [View article]
    Correct me if I am wrong. Author spent lots of paragraphs to explain the underlying mechanism of MORL, BUT the MORL market value and distribution are not affected by that. Unless I want to produce a MORL alike product, I don't see any point to know how to build a MORL.
    Or the author can show us MORL is not closely followed the underlying mREITs that can be exploited? That would be a good reason to write an article of it.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL: Twice The Risk For Not A Lot Of Fun  [View article]
    Couple ways to play if you have 7+ digits.
    Move to a tax free state and keep buying and hope it will not drop below $5.00. Your tax will be maxed out at 39.96%. Most maintenance margin is about 50%.

    Move to a tax free state and keep the cash and wait for the once in a decade drop. Buy with margin and reinvest the dividend for the next decade.

    Give up being American and move to Singapore or any other US income tax free countries.
    Tax will be limited to 30% deduct automatically. No more paper work.
    Pick one of the above investment schemes.
    Aug 15, 2015. 12:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With The mREITs? - MORL Now Yields 29.4%  [View article]
    goto http://bit.ly/12LhLGT
    click distributions & read Current Yield & * comment below

    My projected current yield will be around 20% to 25%.
    For income holders, the true current yield will be different.
    If you bought it in $20
    .7853 +.1296 +.1285 =-1.0434 * 4 = 4.1736 / 20 = 0.20868 = 20.87%

    If you bought it in $10
    4.1736 / 10 = 0.41736 = 41.74%

    My crystal ball not have is not telling me that MORL is heading toward $10.00 and even lower.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL  [View article]
    My experience tells me that the yield might be the same or similar, but the share price might suffer and the REAL return rate might suffer too.
    Let's say one bought MORL @ $20 and the current MORL is $10
    10x24.75%/20=12.37%(REAL return)

    Let's say one bought MORL@$10 and the current MORL is $20
    20x24.75%/10=49.50%(REAL return)

    Search my previous posting
    Wait for the bottom of the downward curve and buy the money trees. We don't need to hit the deepest bottom. Just hit near the deep will give us glorious money trees for the next 10 years. I would say 50+ yield when MORL bounces back.

    Share price appreciation/depreciation DOES matter.
    Jul 10, 2015. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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