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kram1689

kram1689
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  • What's Wrong With The mREITs? - MORL Now Yields 29.4% [View article]
    goto http://bit.ly/12LhLGT
    click distributions & read Current Yield & * comment below

    My projected current yield will be around 20% to 25%.
    For income holders, the true current yield will be different.
    If you bought it in $20
    .7853 +.1296 +.1285 =-1.0434 * 4 = 4.1736 / 20 = 0.20868 = 20.87%

    If you bought it in $10
    4.1736 / 10 = 0.41736 = 41.74%

    My crystal ball not have is not telling me that MORL is heading toward $10.00 and even lower.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    My experience tells me that the yield might be the same or similar, but the share price might suffer and the REAL return rate might suffer too.
    Let's say one bought MORL @ $20 and the current MORL is $10
    10x24.75%/20=12.37%(REAL return)

    Let's say one bought MORL@$10 and the current MORL is $20
    20x24.75%/10=49.50%(REAL return)

    Search my previous posting
    Wait for the bottom of the downward curve and buy the money trees. We don't need to hit the deepest bottom. Just hit near the deep will give us glorious money trees for the next 10 years. I would say 50+ yield when MORL bounces back.

    Share price appreciation/depreciation DOES matter.
    Jul 10, 2015. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    On 7/7/2015
    Seeking Alpha MORL Yield 26.92%
    Update .7853 4.4105/17.97 = 24.54%
    .7853 +.1296 +.1285 =1.0434 *4/17.97=23.22%
    On 7/10/2015 Ex date
    Seeking Alpha MORL Yield 25.81
    Update .7853 4.4105/16.86 = 26.15%
    .7853 +.1296 +.1285 =1.0434 *4/16.86=24.75%
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    Share with you.
    I figured out a quick way to calculate the current dividend distribution of MORL.
    Add current quarter dividends time 4 and divided by share price equal return rate
    .8858 +.1285 +.1296 = 1.1439 time 4 = 4.5756 / 17.21 = 26.59%
    Seeking Alpha's past 12 months return is 27.32%
    Search kram1689 for my previous posting.

    My crude calculation show known paid dividend cut.
    It does not show known unpaid dividend cut.
    It does not show future unknown dividend cut.
    17.21 * 27.32% = 4.701772 - 4.5756 = 0.126172
    The paid dividend cut is about $0.126172 per year.

    After MORL declares its next dividend, we should be able to fast figuing out the next dividend cut/raise without going through the extreme complicated calculation of the underlying REITs.
    Jul 6, 2015. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    If we read "Dividends & Splits" in
    http://tinyurl.com/p8d...
    We find, Forward Annual Dividend Rate, Forward Annual Dividend Yield, Trailing Annual Dividend Rate, Trailing Annual Dividend Yield
    If we read http://tinyurl.com/oaw...
    Div Rate:4.66
    Yield:27.75
    These data are Trailing Annual Dividend Rate/Yield
    mREITs get hit because mREITs are cutting dividends rate now. Look at MORL will not tell us this.
    mREITs got hit because people is expecting mREITs WILL keep cutting dividends rate in the near future. Still, MORL will not tell us this information.

    When one see MORL Yield == 27.75, it is telling us the yield of the past 12 months. It will not tell us MORL's future yield will be 30+ or 20- or even 10-.
    One need to examine current dividend rate of each mREIT of MORL to figure out the current yield of MORL.

    This is why AGNC's trailing and forward yield are different.

    Next is the important part of mREITs.
    People is expecting mREITS' cutting dividend rate in the near future.
    The sell out is making the yield of MORL's the past 12 months attractive.
    BUT we are buying the yield of the future.
    So the share price will keep going down and push up the past yield data.

    There are 2 ways to play this out.
    Keep buying and keep holding to ride this out, since we have no cryrtal balls to predict the downward curve.
    Wait for the bottom of the downward curve and buy the money trees. We don't need to hit the deepest bottom. Just hit near the deep will give us glorious money trees for the next 10 years. I would say 50+ yield when MORL bounces back.
    Risk and reward. All mREITS has similar risk. So one need to choose to pick this sector or avoid this sector. If one choose this sector, pick the MOST reward -- MORL.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Yielding 24.7% Based On Projected June Dividend [View article]
    Was quoting TDAmeri's and Schwab's rates. If I play margin a lot, might consider moving some money to lower margin rate brokers.

    As to Ex, I was right.

    AGNC(according to Yahoo)
    Apr 27, 2015 close 21.50
    Apr 28, 2015 Ex 0.22 Open 21.16

    MORL
    May 8, 2015 close 19.45
    May 11, 2015 Ex 0.129 Open 19.44

    Please correct me if I am wrong.
    This is crazy. It means one need only to hold MORL for one day only to get dividend with minimum capital gain/loss, which also means one need only borrow margin in FULL for one day. AND sell it all the very next day in market order, since block buy/sell does not affect index price.So if one want to get dividend only and to avoid capital gain/loss, just buy MORL before Ex and sell MORL after Ex.

    As to REIT ex...
    MORL
    Apr 27, 2015 close 20.42
    Apr 28, 2015 open 20.42
    AGNC
    Apr 27, 2015 close 21.50
    Apr 28, 2015 Ex 0.22 Open 21.16
    AGNC had 0.34 difference and MORL had the same price.
    Can not explain that, unless MORL's calculation STOP when market is closed.This means if one is looking for capital gain only, one needs to do research more to find out the trick.What I hold right now is a wash with positive dividend incomes(1/3 is qualified). Yes, I want to get rid of red, but I do not want to sell my green.So I am looking for a predictable capital gain to get rid of my red.
    May 21, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Yielding 24.7% Based On Projected June Dividend [View article]
    "The investment seeks to link to the Market Vectors® Global Mortgage REITs Index. The index tracks the overall performance of publicly-traded mortgage REITs that derive at least 50% of their revenues from mortgage-related activities. "

    Correct me if I am wrong.
    MORL 's market price is not affected by MORL's Ex. It is affected by the REITs's market price it tracks.
    MORL 's market price is not affected by MORL's buy/sell pressure. It is affected by the REITs's market price it tracks.

    With good timing, one can get in low and get out high with both good dividend payout and capital gain. With around 8% margin interest rate, the less days of MORL one hold, the more gain one can get.
    May 21, 2015. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp.: Collecting Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Just want to point out that there does exist one REIT with long history including Fed 's last rate rise. So you might want to compare its performance with Fed's rate rise.
    If history repeats itself, you will know what REITs will perform.
    May 16, 2015. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 4 Words To Describe American Capital Agency [View article]
    NLY&AGNC are the largest REITs.
    How to play?

    I believe it will be a rough ride for REITs. This was why CIM had a reverse split.
    So CIM will not be a penny stock and will not be removed from the listing.

    If you own REITs and can hold them(can resist the panic button) for at least 2 to 5 years, they will bounce back for sure.
    If you do not own them or want to get out/in, wait for the crash to buy low.

    If the history repeats itself, they will crash.
    If you can get in LOW, you have money trees.
    May 4, 2015. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 4 Words To Describe American Capital Agency [View article]
    Hate to say I told you so. This is just the beginning of the down hill ride(price wise). It is going to be rough and will take at least years to reach bottom and recover.
    AGNC has no long history, but NLY has. So we need to read how NLY performed in FED actions. Please stop telling us book value. If book value is so valuable, why this crash?


    A Beginner's Guide To Interest Rate Shocks In Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    I posted this sometimes ago.

    Got below data from Yahoo finance.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype(GreenSpam years I believe)
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...
    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]

    It was about 19.8%/ROI=29.8-10 drop around 2005.
    If history repeats itself, 10.9%-19.8%= -9% ROI
    How do we get a -9% ROI???????
    May 1, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases Berkshire Hathaway's Stake In IBM - Let's Analyze It [View article]
    If you have 100 Billion, you do not invest like you have one million.
    If you have one million, you do not invest like you have 100 Billion.
    So it does not help you trying to learn how other people investing their 100 Billion, when you have only one million.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing The Compensation Incentives At Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    Book value up, management fee up, dividend down
    So dividend is everything and book value is junk.
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera hikes dividend, sets reverse split [View news story]
    Preparing for "rate hike" and preventing "delisting"
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Want Book Value: Annaly's Weakness Is Not The Dividend [View article]
    "I Want Book Value: Annaly's Weakness Is Not The Dividend" EVEN the dividend is ZERO.

    It's a stupid title.
    Mar 16, 2015. 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beginner's Guide To Interest Rate Shocks In Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    From Yahoo Finance.
    "The last time the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate, which banks use to lend money overnight, was in June 2006. It brought the rate to 5.25 percent - after 17 increases."
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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