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kram1689

kram1689
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  • Light Hedging In Q4 Should Translate Into Good Book Value Gains For 10.7% Dividend Payer Annaly Capital [View article]
    I have no crystal balls, but I DO read history which is the only valid data we can all access freely.
    Below data is from Yahoo finance.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...
    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]

    It was about 19.8%/ROI=29.8-10 drop around 2005.
    If history repeats itself, 10.9%-19.8%= -9% ROI
    How do anyone get a -9% ROI???????
    Is there a negative dividend payout ever never ever...???

    Anyway, rate will go up, but when?
    When rate is up, margin calls, cover, more margin calls, more cover... vicious cycles
    Everything will be in "panic mode".
    REPEAT, everything will be in panic mode.
    If you can hold the line and NLY/AGNC are not GONE, it will pass. The history told us. The worst is zero dividend and will be the best time to buy.
    I still have 14% in AGNC. the rest is safe from Fed hype.When ROI of AGNC/NLY move pass 20%, will increase my holding.
    Dec 27, 2014. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Tighter Spreads Could Hurt The Dividend In 2015 [View article]
    I got these rough data from Yahoo Finance.
    It is pure soeculation.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...

    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]
    Apparently, you want to be the one who buy in after Fed.You do not want to be the one holding it before Fed.You could just keep holding it and pray it won't become penny stock.
    Dec 24, 2014. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: More Than A Value Company [View article]
    google "apple vs us government data privacy"
    Apple backs Microsoft in data privacy fight against U.S. ...
    Quote on
    If ECPA is interpreted to allow for extraterritorial jurisdiction, it may hurt cloud-based businesses located within the U.S., as international customers would be unwilling to sign up for such services. Further, such a distinction could lead to identical requests from foreign agencies for data owned by U.S. citizens. A lower court previously ruled against Microsoft, rejecting the warrant as illegal. The company has since taken the argument to the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit.
    Quote off

    Pick your side and get it over, then we will have US IBM converted to Irish IBM or Canada IBM.
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12% Dividend American Capital Agency Already Has A $0.20 Book Value Gain In Q4 2014 [View article]
    I have a long memory and still remember Schwab gave me 7.5% interested rate for my parked investment money.
    As for lazy person, I Google it and found below links.

    CD rates history | 1984-2013
    http://bit.ly/1d2l2To

    Fed Funds Rate History
    http://bit.ly/1t2whIw

    NLY
    http://yhoo.it/1t2whIA

    NLY Dividend
    http://yhoo.it/1t2wfAp

    I am not going to plot NLY's ROI vs Fed Rate for you. You have to do it yourself.
    Remember I said, IF.Because I have no crystal ball to tell how deep the drop.I have no crystal ball to tell when this will happen.I do know it will happen and it will drop like a rock.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12% Dividend American Capital Agency Already Has A $0.20 Book Value Gain In Q4 2014 [View article]
    Why guess? Why worry? Read history?
    Sorry, AGNC has no history.
    BUT, NLY has history.
    Now google Fed's rate change history and compare it to NLY's history.
    Use that as the base of your calculation, then you can estimate how much AGNC will drop.
    Let me ask a question, if CD interest rate is between 5 to 8 point something, why would anyone put their money in mREIT's 2 to 10 ROI????
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: My Reaction To Annaly Capital's Dividend Announcement [View article]
    We all try very hard to predict future. No, do not do it.
    The only thing left is history. Perfect, NLY is the only one that has history.
    So I read the history of NLY price changes and history of Fed's rate changes and decided to stand at the sideline(most of my cap.)
    I know I am right, but I don't know WHEN, because I have no crystal balls and FED's lines is anyone's guess.
    Last time NLY was turing from healthy to sick, but this time NLY is turning from sick to ?Zombies?
    10% is not normal. 20% is normal for these high risk mReit.
    Last time, they drop from around 18% to like 8%.
    This time they want to drop from 10% to where??? Penny stock???
    Dec 20, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle Has Become An Application Software Company [View article]
    Actually, with great help from US government's SPY scare tactic, private cloud packages make perfect sense. How many US cloud companies can sell their cloud service to foreign customers(especially Ch)? Even Apple is fighting US Gov for the data servers locating in non US locations. If Apple fails, it would be another push for ORCL's private cloud packages.
    Now we know there has backdoor for encryption. People starts asking how many hidden back doors out there?
    So if you put frontend in public cloud and backend in private servers, then you need encryption for the lines between front and back.
    Now, if the encryption is not working, then what????

    So to read ORCL, you will need a lot of knowledge.
    Dec 20, 2014. 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: The Old Squeeze Play Could Hurt This Stock [View article]
    The mistake we all have is that we all pretend to have crystal balls and try very hard to predict future.
    The only thing we have is history. Just read history and bet your chance and timing.
    I have been waiting at the sideline for 1+ years now. I know it will come, but I don't know "when"?
    Meantime I just made a killing on ORCL $38.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Discounted Twice: How Annaly Got Shafted By Irrational Fears Of Interest Rates [View article]
    FED Interest rate up -> borrowing interest rate up
    One either reduce borrowing or increase income(dream on).
    To reduce borrowing -> selling assets(by force or self) in gain or loss -> further decrease income -> sell more -> further decrease income -> sell even more....
    NLY was the only one went through last Fed rate increase. One just need to read and read and read and read....
    It is your money, do your own research and reading.
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Pay Such Huge Dividends? [View article]
    Check NLY history around 2007. Next imagine FED raises rate to 5+%.
    Oct 31, 2014. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Capital Agency's Q3 2014 Earnings And Why I Am Buying More [View article]
    Need to check history of NLY and Fed's interest rate especially around 2005. Be very prepared for single digit monthly dividend payout.
    Oct 29, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Quick Formula To Estimate Annaly Capital Stock Value And Understand The True Drivers Beyond Its Price [View article]
    This reminds me People vs Languages vs Grammar.
    People speaks languages.
    Some people with nothing better to do analyzes languages and comes out of some rules w/ lots exceptions called grammars.
    Then they ask people to stick with their grammars ignoring the fact that people talk for the sake of communication not for the sake of their grammars.
    Aug 25, 2014. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2014 [View article]
    IMHO, current AGNC situation is very similar to one year ago AGNC's situation when AGNC was around $30+.
    If AGNC increase its dividend payout, the stock will go up a little bit, then it will get hit by Fed's raising.
    If AGNC double its dividend payout when it is hit by Fed, the dividend will come down to current level.
    If AGNC keeps its current dividend payout, we know what would happen when Fed do something. The first wave of investors getting out fast win. The one sitting on the sideline also win.
    By the way, where is the book value. I thought book value is very important and is way more important than dividend payout. That is why we have to spend a lot of time to discuss book value instead of dividend payout. ;-(
    BUT this is only my opinion.
    Jun 10, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs In Your Portfolio: Do Not Focus On American Capital's Dividend [View article]
    I believed FED raised rate to above 5% in just couple quarters last time.
    If AGNC can not raise dividend payout in just couple quarters to improve ROE, people has to dump AGNC to improve AGNC's ROE.
    Let's say AGNC keep $0.65.
    For ROE =18%, AGNC will be selling for $14.44

    Yes, I will be waiting there to catch $14.44.
    Mar 23, 2014. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs In Your Portfolio: Do Not Focus On American Capital's Dividend [View article]
    AGNC's yield is currently around 11.8%, which is a dangerous sign. Not good at all, because FED will raise rate. Past NLY history told us, it was harsh to NLY when FED raised rate. For AGNC to keep up the yield, AGNC has to drop equity price or raise dividend payout to prevent FED rate closing in. Both are tough tasks. Why would anyone buy AGNC, if AGNC's yield is lower or near CD rates? I still remember Schwab's paying 7.5% interest rate. Big ships will pull out before we even know what's going on. Do not forget AGNC's last DROP just happened couple months ago. Will it happen again? Who knows? The yield certainly is not heading toward 20%.
    Mar 11, 2014. 05:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
70 Comments
38 Likes