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kram1689

kram1689
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  • Reviewing The Compensation Incentives At Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    Book value up, management fee up, dividend down
    So dividend is everything and book value is junk.
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera hikes dividend, sets reverse split [View news story]
    Preparing for "rate hike" and preventing "delisting"
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Want Book Value: Annaly's Weakness Is Not The Dividend [View article]
    "I Want Book Value: Annaly's Weakness Is Not The Dividend" EVEN the dividend is ZERO.

    It's a stupid title.
    Mar 16, 2015. 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beginner's Guide To Interest Rate Shocks In Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    From Yahoo Finance.
    "The last time the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate, which banks use to lend money overnight, was in June 2006. It brought the rate to 5.25 percent - after 17 increases."
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beginner's Guide To Interest Rate Shocks In Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    I posted this sometimes ago.

    Got below data from Yahoo finance.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype(GreenSpam years I believe)
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...
    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]

    It was about 19.8%/ROI=29.8-10 drop around 2005.
    If history repeats itself, 10.9%-19.8%= -9% ROI
    How do we get a -9% ROI???????
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: My Reaction To Chimera Investment Corporation's Dividend Payment [View article]
    it was 'return as capital' which is similar to "share buy back".
    The difference is in "bonus tied to shares".
    If I am right, this meant they do not want to reduce their bonus.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beginner's Guide To Understanding How Annaly Capital Management Has Changed [View article]
    To better understand what could happen in the near future of NLY, you might want to explain what really happened in 2005(2004 to 2006). Will history repeats itself?
    What could be the worst case? And what could be the best case?
    Dec 30, 2014. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Light Hedging In Q4 Should Translate Into Good Book Value Gains For 10.7% Dividend Payer Annaly Capital [View article]
    I have no crystal balls, but I DO read history which is the only valid data we can all access freely.
    Below data is from Yahoo finance.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...
    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]

    It was about 19.8%/ROI=29.8-10 drop around 2005.
    If history repeats itself, 10.9%-19.8%= -9% ROI
    How do anyone get a -9% ROI???????
    Is there a negative dividend payout ever never ever...???

    Anyway, rate will go up, but when?
    When rate is up, margin calls, cover, more margin calls, more cover... vicious cycles
    Everything will be in "panic mode".
    REPEAT, everything will be in panic mode.
    If you can hold the line and NLY/AGNC are not GONE, it will pass. The history told us. The worst is zero dividend and will be the best time to buy.
    I still have 14% in AGNC. the rest is safe from Fed hype.When ROI of AGNC/NLY move pass 20%, will increase my holding.
    Dec 27, 2014. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Tighter Spreads Could Hurt The Dividend In 2015 [View article]
    I got these rough data from Yahoo Finance.
    It is pure soeculation.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...

    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]
    Apparently, you want to be the one who buy in after Fed.You do not want to be the one holding it before Fed.You could just keep holding it and pray it won't become penny stock.
    Dec 24, 2014. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: More Than A Value Company [View article]
    google "apple vs us government data privacy"
    Apple backs Microsoft in data privacy fight against U.S. ...
    Quote on
    If ECPA is interpreted to allow for extraterritorial jurisdiction, it may hurt cloud-based businesses located within the U.S., as international customers would be unwilling to sign up for such services. Further, such a distinction could lead to identical requests from foreign agencies for data owned by U.S. citizens. A lower court previously ruled against Microsoft, rejecting the warrant as illegal. The company has since taken the argument to the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit.
    Quote off

    Pick your side and get it over, then we will have US IBM converted to Irish IBM or Canada IBM.
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12% Dividend American Capital Agency Already Has A $0.20 Book Value Gain In Q4 2014 [View article]
    I have a long memory and still remember Schwab gave me 7.5% interested rate for my parked investment money.
    As for lazy person, I Google it and found below links.

    CD rates history | 1984-2013
    http://bit.ly/1d2l2To

    Fed Funds Rate History
    http://bit.ly/1t2whIw

    NLY
    http://yhoo.it/1t2whIA

    NLY Dividend
    http://yhoo.it/1t2wfAp

    I am not going to plot NLY's ROI vs Fed Rate for you. You have to do it yourself.
    Remember I said, IF.Because I have no crystal ball to tell how deep the drop.I have no crystal ball to tell when this will happen.I do know it will happen and it will drop like a rock.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12% Dividend American Capital Agency Already Has A $0.20 Book Value Gain In Q4 2014 [View article]
    Why guess? Why worry? Read history?
    Sorry, AGNC has no history.
    BUT, NLY has history.
    Now google Fed's rate change history and compare it to NLY's history.
    Use that as the base of your calculation, then you can estimate how much AGNC will drop.
    Let me ask a question, if CD interest rate is between 5 to 8 point something, why would anyone put their money in mREIT's 2 to 10 ROI????
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: My Reaction To Annaly Capital's Dividend Announcement [View article]
    We all try very hard to predict future. No, do not do it.
    The only thing left is history. Perfect, NLY is the only one that has history.
    So I read the history of NLY price changes and history of Fed's rate changes and decided to stand at the sideline(most of my cap.)
    I know I am right, but I don't know WHEN, because I have no crystal balls and FED's lines is anyone's guess.
    Last time NLY was turing from healthy to sick, but this time NLY is turning from sick to ?Zombies?
    10% is not normal. 20% is normal for these high risk mReit.
    Last time, they drop from around 18% to like 8%.
    This time they want to drop from 10% to where??? Penny stock???
    Dec 20, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle Has Become An Application Software Company [View article]
    Actually, with great help from US government's SPY scare tactic, private cloud packages make perfect sense. How many US cloud companies can sell their cloud service to foreign customers(especially Ch)? Even Apple is fighting US Gov for the data servers locating in non US locations. If Apple fails, it would be another push for ORCL's private cloud packages.
    Now we know there has backdoor for encryption. People starts asking how many hidden back doors out there?
    So if you put frontend in public cloud and backend in private servers, then you need encryption for the lines between front and back.
    Now, if the encryption is not working, then what????

    So to read ORCL, you will need a lot of knowledge.
    Dec 20, 2014. 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: The Old Squeeze Play Could Hurt This Stock [View article]
    The mistake we all have is that we all pretend to have crystal balls and try very hard to predict future.
    The only thing we have is history. Just read history and bet your chance and timing.
    I have been waiting at the sideline for 1+ years now. I know it will come, but I don't know "when"?
    Meantime I just made a killing on ORCL $38.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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