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kram1689

kram1689
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  • MORL Yielding 24.7% Based On Projected June Dividend [View article]
    Was quoting TDAmeri's and Schwab's rates. If I play margin a lot, might consider moving some money to lower margin rate brokers.

    As to Ex, I was right.

    AGNC(according to Yahoo)
    Apr 27, 2015 close 21.50
    Apr 28, 2015 Ex 0.22 Open 21.16

    MORL
    May 8, 2015 close 19.45
    May 11, 2015 Ex 0.129 Open 19.44

    Please correct me if I am wrong.
    This is crazy. It means one need only to hold MORL for one day only to get dividend with minimum capital gain/loss, which also means one need only borrow margin in FULL for one day. AND sell it all the very next day in market order, since block buy/sell does not affect index price.So if one want to get dividend only and to avoid capital gain/loss, just buy MORL before Ex and sell MORL after Ex.

    As to REIT ex...
    MORL
    Apr 27, 2015 close 20.42
    Apr 28, 2015 open 20.42
    AGNC
    Apr 27, 2015 close 21.50
    Apr 28, 2015 Ex 0.22 Open 21.16
    AGNC had 0.34 difference and MORL had the same price.
    Can not explain that, unless MORL's calculation STOP when market is closed.This means if one is looking for capital gain only, one needs to do research more to find out the trick.What I hold right now is a wash with positive dividend incomes(1/3 is qualified). Yes, I want to get rid of red, but I do not want to sell my green.So I am looking for a predictable capital gain to get rid of my red.
    May 21, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Yielding 24.7% Based On Projected June Dividend [View article]
    "The investment seeks to link to the Market Vectors® Global Mortgage REITs Index. The index tracks the overall performance of publicly-traded mortgage REITs that derive at least 50% of their revenues from mortgage-related activities. "

    Correct me if I am wrong.
    MORL 's market price is not affected by MORL's Ex. It is affected by the REITs's market price it tracks.
    MORL 's market price is not affected by MORL's buy/sell pressure. It is affected by the REITs's market price it tracks.

    With good timing, one can get in low and get out high with both good dividend payout and capital gain. With around 8% margin interest rate, the less days of MORL one hold, the more gain one can get.
    May 21, 2015. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp.: Collecting Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Just want to point out that there does exist one REIT with long history including Fed 's last rate rise. So you might want to compare its performance with Fed's rate rise.
    If history repeats itself, you will know what REITs will perform.
    May 16, 2015. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 4 Words To Describe American Capital Agency [View article]
    NLY&AGNC are the largest REITs.
    How to play?

    I believe it will be a rough ride for REITs. This was why CIM had a reverse split.
    So CIM will not be a penny stock and will not be removed from the listing.

    If you own REITs and can hold them(can resist the panic button) for at least 2 to 5 years, they will bounce back for sure.
    If you do not own them or want to get out/in, wait for the crash to buy low.

    If the history repeats itself, they will crash.
    If you can get in LOW, you have money trees.
    May 4, 2015. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 4 Words To Describe American Capital Agency [View article]
    Hate to say I told you so. This is just the beginning of the down hill ride(price wise). It is going to be rough and will take at least years to reach bottom and recover.
    AGNC has no long history, but NLY has. So we need to read how NLY performed in FED actions. Please stop telling us book value. If book value is so valuable, why this crash?


    A Beginner's Guide To Interest Rate Shocks In Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    I posted this sometimes ago.

    Got below data from Yahoo finance.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype(GreenSpam years I believe)
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...
    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]

    It was about 19.8%/ROI=29.8-10 drop around 2005.
    If history repeats itself, 10.9%-19.8%= -9% ROI
    How do we get a -9% ROI???????
    May 1, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases Berkshire Hathaway's Stake In IBM - Let's Analyze It [View article]
    If you have 100 Billion, you do not invest like you have one million.
    If you have one million, you do not invest like you have 100 Billion.
    So it does not help you trying to learn how other people investing their 100 Billion, when you have only one million.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing The Compensation Incentives At Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    Book value up, management fee up, dividend down
    So dividend is everything and book value is junk.
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera hikes dividend, sets reverse split [View news story]
    Preparing for "rate hike" and preventing "delisting"
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Want Book Value: Annaly's Weakness Is Not The Dividend [View article]
    "I Want Book Value: Annaly's Weakness Is Not The Dividend" EVEN the dividend is ZERO.

    It's a stupid title.
    Mar 16, 2015. 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beginner's Guide To Interest Rate Shocks In Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    From Yahoo Finance.
    "The last time the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate, which banks use to lend money overnight, was in June 2006. It brought the rate to 5.25 percent - after 17 increases."
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beginner's Guide To Interest Rate Shocks In Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    I posted this sometimes ago.

    Got below data from Yahoo finance.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype(GreenSpam years I believe)
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...
    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]

    It was about 19.8%/ROI=29.8-10 drop around 2005.
    If history repeats itself, 10.9%-19.8%= -9% ROI
    How do we get a -9% ROI???????
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: My Reaction To Chimera Investment Corporation's Dividend Payment [View article]
    it was 'return as capital' which is similar to "share buy back".
    The difference is in "bonus tied to shares".
    If I am right, this meant they do not want to reduce their bonus.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beginner's Guide To Understanding How Annaly Capital Management Has Changed [View article]
    To better understand what could happen in the near future of NLY, you might want to explain what really happened in 2005(2004 to 2006). Will history repeats itself?
    What could be the worst case? And what could be the best case?
    Dec 30, 2014. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Light Hedging In Q4 Should Translate Into Good Book Value Gains For 10.7% Dividend Payer Annaly Capital [View article]
    I have no crystal balls, but I DO read history which is the only valid data we can all access freely.
    Below data is from Yahoo finance.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...
    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]

    It was about 19.8%/ROI=29.8-10 drop around 2005.
    If history repeats itself, 10.9%-19.8%= -9% ROI
    How do anyone get a -9% ROI???????
    Is there a negative dividend payout ever never ever...???

    Anyway, rate will go up, but when?
    When rate is up, margin calls, cover, more margin calls, more cover... vicious cycles
    Everything will be in "panic mode".
    REPEAT, everything will be in panic mode.
    If you can hold the line and NLY/AGNC are not GONE, it will pass. The history told us. The worst is zero dividend and will be the best time to buy.
    I still have 14% in AGNC. the rest is safe from Fed hype.When ROI of AGNC/NLY move pass 20%, will increase my holding.
    Dec 27, 2014. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Tighter Spreads Could Hurt The Dividend In 2015 [View article]
    I got these rough data from Yahoo Finance.
    It is pure soeculation.

    12/29/2004 $.50*4/6.71=29.8%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    12/28/2005 $.10*4/3.98=10.0%/ROI
    12/27/2006 $.19*4/5.30=14.3%/ROI
    ...

    09/29/2014 $.30*4/10.92=10.9%/ROI
    Fed rate hype
    ??/??/2015 $.??*4/??.??=[10.9%/ROI - (29.8%/ROI-10.0%/ROI)]
    Apparently, you want to be the one who buy in after Fed.You do not want to be the one holding it before Fed.You could just keep holding it and pray it won't become penny stock.
    Dec 24, 2014. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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