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kram1689

kram1689
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  • Mortgage REITs In Your Portfolio: Do Not Focus On American Capital's Dividend [View article]
    I believed FED raised rate to above 5% in just couple quarters last time.
    If AGNC can not raise dividend payout in just couple quarters to improve ROE, people has to dump AGNC to improve AGNC's ROE.
    Let's say AGNC keep $0.65.
    For ROE =18%, AGNC will be selling for $14.44

    Yes, I will be waiting there to catch $14.44.
    Mar 23 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs In Your Portfolio: Do Not Focus On American Capital's Dividend [View article]
    AGNC's yield is currently around 11.8%, which is a dangerous sign. Not good at all, because FED will raise rate. Past NLY history told us, it was harsh to NLY when FED raised rate. For AGNC to keep up the yield, AGNC has to drop equity price or raise dividend payout to prevent FED rate closing in. Both are tough tasks. Why would anyone buy AGNC, if AGNC's yield is lower or near CD rates? I still remember Schwab's paying 7.5% interest rate. Big ships will pull out before we even know what's going on. Do not forget AGNC's last DROP just happened couple months ago. Will it happen again? Who knows? The yield certainly is not heading toward 20%.
    Mar 11 05:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At $10, Annaly Capital Management Is Cheap [View article]
    "insider buys"???
    Check the history.
    "insider buys" happened before the crash and after the crash.
    "insider buys" happened every time and any time.
    If it means anything or something, why would crashed happened?
    Just do "insider buys", it can prevent crash?????
    Jan 14 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At $10, Annaly Capital Management Is Cheap [View article]
    The question to ask is will NLY increase its dividend payout soon or in the near future?
    If the answer is yes, go onboard fast and get a tail wind ride.
    If the answer is no, then the next question is
    Will it cut its dividend payout?
    If the answer is absolutely NO and NLY will NOT cut its dividend payout any time soon, buy NLY and enjoy 11.928% return.
    Jan 9 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Current Price Is An Ideal Entry Point [View article]
    .65 * 4 / 19.29 = 0.134784862623121
    Past history points out AGNC's ROI has been running from ~13% to 20+%
    The only way for AGNC to improve its ROI is to increase dividend payout.
    Buying AGNC and cutting more dividend payout will only decrease ROI which in term will decrease its stock price to move ROI back to above 13%.

    Is there any chance AGNC will raise its dividend payout in the near future?

    Now, people loves to talk about book value to make people believe AGNC will somehow increase its ROI because of book value?
    Jan 1 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Tapering Help The mREITs? Well, It Depends [View article]
    At least one thing we are 99.999% positive is AGNC/NLY will NOT raise the dividend payout now or in near future. Arming with this info, stand on a sideline is the best option, IMHO.
    Dec 16 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was I Wrong? Reassessing American Capital Agency's Situation [View article]
    Are you asking FREE advise ignoring your paid advise?
    Dec 3 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Mid-Q4 2013 Composition And Valuation Analysis - Part 1 [View article]
    Never say never.
    To the people who got in around $35.00
    .8 x 4 / 35 = 9.14%

    Now 35 x .08 / 4 = 0.70
    So when AGNC cut its dividend payout to below $0.70. the return rate will get below 8%.

    Actually, this proves AGNC is a pretty good long term holding stock if one holds it in a retirement account or do not mind paying tax.
    One ALWAYS know one's own AGNC return rate and plan ahead.
    This unique quality is hard to find in non high dividend payout equities.
    Nov 28 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Mid-Q4 2013 Composition And Valuation Analysis - Part 1 [View article]
    At least something we are pretty sure is AGNC will NOT raise dividend payout anytime soon. Next couple quarters? I doubt it.
    Nov 26 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Sustainability Analysis (Post Q3 2013 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    Thank you. I guess I did not read enough. Only time can tell "good call or bad call".
    Nov 18 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Sustainability Analysis (Post Q3 2013 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    Sorry about the "conversion". What I meant was "30-year fixed-rate MBS" -> "15-year MBS".
    Since Fed is buying, why there is a loss selling "30-year fixed-rate MBS"? I presume there should not be a loss buying "15-year MBS".

    "AGNC continued to decrease its exposure to 30-year fixed-rate MBS and increased its proportion of less price sensitive 15-year MBS. This caused additional realized valuation losses on the sold MBS."
    Nov 16 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Sustainability Analysis (Post Q3 2013 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    I wonder why AGNC took a loss in conversion?
    If I own "something" that someone MUST buy certain amount each month, I would make a killing of it.
    Nov 15 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Was I Wrong? Reassessing American Capital Agency's Situation [View article]
    You have not figured out why AGNC buy AGNC yet?(this is like I need to kill myself, because I have nothing better to do.)
    We don't know how many pre-crashed MBS AGNC owned left?(after refinance/prepayment)
    We do know MBS after fed started buying are junk(over valued).
    We do know book value will drop, if fed stop buying.
    We also know MBS players(REITs) will be squeezed, if fed starts raising rate.
    We also know REITs will be dead in the water, if fed raises rate NOT slow.
    We also know after fed finishes messing around and everything is cool down and stable, REITs will be transformed to golden goose if only if they have any mony/value left.
    Nov 6 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital: The Next Leg Down Could Be When Dividend Cuts Are Announced [View article]
    Well, this is a hint.

    If you know someone(FED) MUST buy certain amount of JUNK each month.

    I happen to hold certain amount of JUNK.

    These JUNK will be extremely valuable, because someone MUST buy it.

    So if I sell those JUNK, I will be filthy rich, but I have to close my shop when I am holding no JUNK.

    Now, if I go to market buying those inflated price JUNK(FED is competing with me), when someone stop buying JUNK, I will be holding REAL JUNK.
    Nov 4 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital: The Next Leg Down Could Be When Dividend Cuts Are Announced [View article]
    A dividend cut may or may not come, but are looking at the wrong picture.
    Fed buying -> demand higher than supply -> high book value
    At the same time, AGNC can not buy those high demand cheap coupons -> buy back shares(they know they have no reserve to re-invest like non reit companies. This also means one is getting some of the capital back instead of return.)
    
    How about selling those books when Fed is buying(high demand) and make a killing of it?
    That is the core of AGNC's business -> AGNC cease to exist

    Next comes the horrible parts
    Fed stop buying
    You need to figure out why it is horrible yourself.
    Next comes the instant kill
    Fed raises rate FAST to kill the inflation
    You need to figure out why it is instant kill yourself.

    When is the best place for AGNC?
    Stable environment with FED out of the way.

    Still, after couple quarters/years later, when everything is calm down, AGNC will be a KILLer.
    Nov 4 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
57 Comments
33 Likes