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kram1689

kram1689
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  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment: Update #2, 13 Months Later [View article]
    FYI, do not confuse dividend investment or debt Investments with growth stocks or equity Investments.
    Please do your research and make your choices wisely.
    Research can give you confidence and resist your herd instinct in a crazy markets.

    If one want to do LONG calculation without Reinvestment and margin and tax, one should go to http://tinyurl.com/q5r... and get distributions data
    From 1/22/2015 to 8/20/2015
    Total up to now distributions = .1043 + 5.3710 + 4.4029 + 3.1310 = 13.0092
    The MORL initial public offerings is $25.00
    The total duration is from 10/17/2012 to today about 34 months
    Now the presumption here is $25 a share, LONG for 34 months, NO reinvestment, PreTax, No margin, No expense....
    The return rate is 13.0092 / 34 * 12 / 25 = 18.36%
    Aug 30, 2015. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Impacted By Enormous Price To Book Swing - MORL Yielding 27.6% [View article]
    If one want to do LONG calculation without Reinvestment and margin and tax, one should go to http://tinyurl.com/q5r... and get distributions data
    From 1/22/2015 to 8/20/2015
    Total up to now distributions = .1043 + 5.3710 + 4.4029 + 3.1310 = 13.0092
    The MORL initial public offerings is $25.00
    The total duration is from 10/17/2012 to today about 34 months
    Now the presumption here is $25 a share, LONG for 34 months, NO reinvestment, PreTax, No margin, No expense....
    The return rate is 13.0092 / 34 * 12 / 25 = 18.36%
    Aug 30, 2015. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Impacted By Enormous Price To Book Swing - MORL Yielding 27.6% [View article]
    FYI, while waiting for the curve valley.
    I made a spreadsheet for MORL LONG after tax Reinvestment.
    move to a tax free state.
    68% margin maintenance 4x get me about 3% more roi.
    Give up US citizenship with 30% tax, get me about 8% more roi.
    Aug 30, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN: A Pragmatic Approach [View article]
    Are you saying UBS is changing the "underlying mechanism" all the time to suite UBS's needs?
    So if AGNC and NLY and mREITS go down and UBS changes its "underlying mechanism", then MORL will go up????
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment: Update #2, 13 Months Later [View article]

    Just want to point out longrundata.com does not do LONG calculation.
    If one want to do LONG calculation without Reinvestment and margin and tax, one should go to http://etracs.ubs.com get distribution data (.1043 + 5.3710 + 4.4029 + 3.1310) / 34 months * 12 months / $25(initial MORL value)=18.36%
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN: A Pragmatic Approach [View article]
    Correct me if I am wrong. Author spent lots of paragraphs to explain the underlying mechanism of MORL, BUT the MORL market value and distribution are not affected by that. Unless I want to produce a MORL alike product, I don't see any point to know how to build a MORL.
    Or the author can show us MORL is not closely followed the underlying mREITs that can be exploited? That would be a good reason to write an article of it.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL: Twice The Risk For Not A Lot Of Fun [View article]
    Couple ways to play if you have 7+ digits.
    Move to a tax free state and keep buying and hope it will not drop below $5.00. Your tax will be maxed out at 39.96%. Most maintenance margin is about 50%.

    Move to a tax free state and keep the cash and wait for the once in a decade drop. Buy with margin and reinvest the dividend for the next decade.

    Give up being American and move to Singapore or any other US income tax free countries.
    Tax will be limited to 30% deduct automatically. No more paper work.
    Pick one of the above investment schemes.
    Aug 15, 2015. 12:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With The mREITs? - MORL Now Yields 29.4% [View article]
    goto http://bit.ly/12LhLGT
    click distributions & read Current Yield & * comment below

    My projected current yield will be around 20% to 25%.
    For income holders, the true current yield will be different.
    If you bought it in $20
    .7853 +.1296 +.1285 =-1.0434 * 4 = 4.1736 / 20 = 0.20868 = 20.87%

    If you bought it in $10
    4.1736 / 10 = 0.41736 = 41.74%

    My crystal ball not have is not telling me that MORL is heading toward $10.00 and even lower.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    My experience tells me that the yield might be the same or similar, but the share price might suffer and the REAL return rate might suffer too.
    Let's say one bought MORL @ $20 and the current MORL is $10
    10x24.75%/20=12.37%(REAL return)

    Let's say one bought MORL@$10 and the current MORL is $20
    20x24.75%/10=49.50%(REAL return)

    Search my previous posting
    Wait for the bottom of the downward curve and buy the money trees. We don't need to hit the deepest bottom. Just hit near the deep will give us glorious money trees for the next 10 years. I would say 50+ yield when MORL bounces back.

    Share price appreciation/depreciation DOES matter.
    Jul 10, 2015. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    On 7/7/2015
    Seeking Alpha MORL Yield 26.92%
    Update .7853 4.4105/17.97 = 24.54%
    .7853 +.1296 +.1285 =1.0434 *4/17.97=23.22%
    On 7/10/2015 Ex date
    Seeking Alpha MORL Yield 25.81
    Update .7853 4.4105/16.86 = 26.15%
    .7853 +.1296 +.1285 =1.0434 *4/16.86=24.75%
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    Share with you.
    I figured out a quick way to calculate the current dividend distribution of MORL.
    Add current quarter dividends time 4 and divided by share price equal return rate
    .8858 +.1285 +.1296 = 1.1439 time 4 = 4.5756 / 17.21 = 26.59%
    Seeking Alpha's past 12 months return is 27.32%
    Search kram1689 for my previous posting.

    My crude calculation show known paid dividend cut.
    It does not show known unpaid dividend cut.
    It does not show future unknown dividend cut.
    17.21 * 27.32% = 4.701772 - 4.5756 = 0.126172
    The paid dividend cut is about $0.126172 per year.

    After MORL declares its next dividend, we should be able to fast figuing out the next dividend cut/raise without going through the extreme complicated calculation of the underlying REITs.
    Jul 6, 2015. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    If we read "Dividends & Splits" in
    http://tinyurl.com/p8d...
    We find, Forward Annual Dividend Rate, Forward Annual Dividend Yield, Trailing Annual Dividend Rate, Trailing Annual Dividend Yield
    If we read http://tinyurl.com/oaw...
    Div Rate:4.66
    Yield:27.75
    These data are Trailing Annual Dividend Rate/Yield
    mREITs get hit because mREITs are cutting dividends rate now. Look at MORL will not tell us this.
    mREITs got hit because people is expecting mREITs WILL keep cutting dividends rate in the near future. Still, MORL will not tell us this information.

    When one see MORL Yield == 27.75, it is telling us the yield of the past 12 months. It will not tell us MORL's future yield will be 30+ or 20- or even 10-.
    One need to examine current dividend rate of each mREIT of MORL to figure out the current yield of MORL.

    This is why AGNC's trailing and forward yield are different.

    Next is the important part of mREITs.
    People is expecting mREITS' cutting dividend rate in the near future.
    The sell out is making the yield of MORL's the past 12 months attractive.
    BUT we are buying the yield of the future.
    So the share price will keep going down and push up the past yield data.

    There are 2 ways to play this out.
    Keep buying and keep holding to ride this out, since we have no cryrtal balls to predict the downward curve.
    Wait for the bottom of the downward curve and buy the money trees. We don't need to hit the deepest bottom. Just hit near the deep will give us glorious money trees for the next 10 years. I would say 50+ yield when MORL bounces back.
    Risk and reward. All mREITS has similar risk. So one need to choose to pick this sector or avoid this sector. If one choose this sector, pick the MOST reward -- MORL.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Yielding 24.7% Based On Projected June Dividend [View article]
    Was quoting TDAmeri's and Schwab's rates. If I play margin a lot, might consider moving some money to lower margin rate brokers.

    As to Ex, I was right.

    AGNC(according to Yahoo)
    Apr 27, 2015 close 21.50
    Apr 28, 2015 Ex 0.22 Open 21.16

    MORL
    May 8, 2015 close 19.45
    May 11, 2015 Ex 0.129 Open 19.44

    Please correct me if I am wrong.
    This is crazy. It means one need only to hold MORL for one day only to get dividend with minimum capital gain/loss, which also means one need only borrow margin in FULL for one day. AND sell it all the very next day in market order, since block buy/sell does not affect index price.So if one want to get dividend only and to avoid capital gain/loss, just buy MORL before Ex and sell MORL after Ex.

    As to REIT ex...
    MORL
    Apr 27, 2015 close 20.42
    Apr 28, 2015 open 20.42
    AGNC
    Apr 27, 2015 close 21.50
    Apr 28, 2015 Ex 0.22 Open 21.16
    AGNC had 0.34 difference and MORL had the same price.
    Can not explain that, unless MORL's calculation STOP when market is closed.This means if one is looking for capital gain only, one needs to do research more to find out the trick.What I hold right now is a wash with positive dividend incomes(1/3 is qualified). Yes, I want to get rid of red, but I do not want to sell my green.So I am looking for a predictable capital gain to get rid of my red.
    May 21, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Yielding 24.7% Based On Projected June Dividend [View article]
    "The investment seeks to link to the Market Vectors® Global Mortgage REITs Index. The index tracks the overall performance of publicly-traded mortgage REITs that derive at least 50% of their revenues from mortgage-related activities. "

    Correct me if I am wrong.
    MORL 's market price is not affected by MORL's Ex. It is affected by the REITs's market price it tracks.
    MORL 's market price is not affected by MORL's buy/sell pressure. It is affected by the REITs's market price it tracks.

    With good timing, one can get in low and get out high with both good dividend payout and capital gain. With around 8% margin interest rate, the less days of MORL one hold, the more gain one can get.
    May 21, 2015. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp.: Collecting Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Just want to point out that there does exist one REIT with long history including Fed 's last rate rise. So you might want to compare its performance with Fed's rate rise.
    If history repeats itself, you will know what REITs will perform.
    May 16, 2015. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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