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cohenfive

cohenfive
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  • Backed By Analysts, Bank Of America Looks Like 25%-30% Upside [View article]
    I continue to believe as I have for a couple of years now...that BAC could be a $20 stock in the right set of circumstances, but I don't see it going much beyond that. The math just gets very difficult imo, especially in the face of what is going to continue to be a very difficult regulatory operating environment for big banks. The bank just isn't going to get anywhere near $30 imo.
    Sep 29, 2014. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Should Earn $1.75+ Next Year [View article]
    I continue to think that BAC can be a $20 stock, but not much more than that unless things get really crazy with stocks generally. The market will not give them an expanded multiple into peak earnings, and capital returns to shareholders will be slow...but I do think $20 could be possible in the really good scenarios.
    Sep 23, 2014. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Buy Before Everyone Else Does [View article]
    I feel the same way about BAC as I have for a long time...It could be a $20 stock, which would be nice appreciation from here, but that's about it. If they can get to $2 per share in earnings, at a 10x multiple that puts the stock at $20. I do not believe that the market will give them a better multiple at what will be perceived to be peak earnings...historically multiples contract as earnings peak. BAC has never shown much ability to grow the top line, only to shave costs. As the big costs are being taken out, it is going to be tougher to increase earnings going forward. So buy it for the next 20% appreciation, but if you think this is a double, imo disappointment awaits.
    Sep 11, 2014. 04:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: $2.76 In EPS Means Sell? [View article]
    That would be a higher multiple than they have ever had at peak earnings. The multiple has tended to contract the higher the actual earnings are...
    Sep 8, 2014. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: $2.76 In EPS Means Sell? [View article]
    While I think BAC as a stock is not an unreasonable thing to hold, I do not subscribe to the thinking that the stock can double. That implies a level of earnings that I just don't think the bank has. So I come out of this thinking that BAC in a really good scenario can get to maybe $20, not $30. Really simple math...if they can get back to peak earnings of about $20 billion (they aren't close yet), that is about $2 per share. Slap a 10x multiple on it and you have a $20 stock. They have never demonstrated an ability to grow the top line, and with the most adversarial regulatory environment in history, I don't think this is the time to assume they can. Still, a 25% return from here isn't bad, and I don't think the risk is that huge, so holding some probably makes some sense imo.
    Sep 4, 2014. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Raises Its Value For Investors [View article]
    The thing with BAC is that there always seems to be something that happens to them that hurts shareholders. They used to be good at buying other banks, but not in growing top line revenues. Now, they cannot buy any other banks, and they still don't really know how to grow top line revenues. They mess up reg cap calculations which delays and shrinks their capital plan....That leaves me thinking that while BAC is clearly cheap to the group, it deserves to be cheap to the group. Sell before $20 if we get there...
    Aug 18, 2014. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America Corp declares $0.01 dividend [View news story]
    The Fed hasn't ruled on their revised capital plan yet. I expect the dividend to go up to the lofty $.05 level next quarter, but possibly no or very small buybacks.
    Jun 18, 2014. 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Myopia: Why Investors Don't Understand Bank Of America [View article]
    Agree, the market will not put BAC in the same class as WFC for many, many years...if ever. They have never been able to grow the top line, only the bottom line, primarily via acquisitions and cost cutting. I just don't see the big jump from here, only into $20-22 range if things work out well.
    Apr 25, 2014. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Myopia: Why Investors Don't Understand Bank Of America [View article]
    Hello, I hope you are right, I just don't think so. 15x peak earnings, BAC has never seen that sort of multiple.
    Apr 25, 2014. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Myopia: Why Investors Don't Understand Bank Of America [View article]
    I am a shareholder, but am must more modest in my goals for the stock. Those thinking that the company can get back into the thirties will be very disappointed imo. That doesn't mean however, that the stock can't get back to twenty or so. Simple math--10 billion shares outstanding, full earnings of 20 billion in a year, so $2 per share of earnings...probably means about a $20 stock price. That being said, it will take a very long time before (or if) investors ever consider BAC to be of the same quality of WFC. I just don't think it belongs in that conversation.
    Apr 24, 2014. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Fed stress tests [View news story]
    I agree Mike, but all of them will in theory be able to 'handle' such a disastrous move. I don't think there are any surprises here, sort of interesting how the big banks had a huge pop going into the results. Probably means some sort of dividend reinstatement for bac, but that is mostly priced into the stock at these levels imo.
    Mar 20, 2014. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet [View article]
    I am reasonably positive on BAC as well, not not a super bull as you are. I think the stock should get to $20 in a good scenario, which is only about 11% from where it is today. I think a modest dividend payment as well as positive stress test results are pretty much baked into the stock already, and it would be a big negative surprise if the results came out differently than good and yes to a modest dividend. At $20, the stock trades around 10x peak earnings, and the bank is still not at peak earnings, if it can even get there and stay there in what will continue to be a very unfriendly regulatory environment. To get a stock price much above $20 you have to assume some real revenue growth, and that is something that BAC has never been able to accomplish. It has always been about scale and cost efficiency and I don't see that changing. IMO.
    Mar 20, 2014. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Growth A Key Highlight For Rite Aid [View article]
    If they can clean up the customer service side of their business as others have said, there may very well indeed be big upside here...but they can build a lot of pretty stores and have no new customers if they don't like going to RAD...
    Mar 1, 2014. 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Huge Problems At Bank Of America: Investigations Into Forex And Mortgage Practices Underway [View article]
    I respectfully disagree with the article's conclusions on BAC. I think they have been managing litigation reserves well and there is no reason to think these new items (which are not really new) will materially impact earnings. I am more favorably disposed about the stock, but only to about $20 per share. At that price it is basically trading around book value, and also at about 10x peak earnings, which they are nowhere near earning yet. The are likely going to be able to increase the dividend this year, and the fact that they haven't paid dividends in several years is at this point ancient history. Stock prices tend to look forward, not back. So in a decent market I think BAC can squeeze another 20% or so, and from there it looks pretty fully valued to me.
    Feb 28, 2014. 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Pay No Attention To The Legal Issues Behind The Curtain [View article]
    I still like the stock, but think that the big moves have already taken place. Getting towards $20 is what I expect in a relatively calm market this year. That would put it up towards book value and would also be about 10x 'peak' earnings which imo is all you can really expect. To get and stay much beyond this price implies real revenue/earnings growth beyond anything the bank has seen before, and imo the regulatory and economic environment just isn't there to get a big bust out. So I still would hold most of the stock, but it is for the next 20%, not a doubling.....
    Feb 27, 2014. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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