Steven Hansen's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/226469/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1474901/comments?source=feed#comment-19632201 19632201 Wed, 05 Jun 2013 09:53:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/1752301-economic-overview-a-gnarly-economy?source=feed#comment-17596791 17596791
all of these indices are noisy. census pasteurizes and homogenizes the data to the extent you do not understand whether you are coming or going. there are a lot of dynamics in play - but i suggest the number of paydays in the month may be the governing dynamic. there were 5 paydays in March. this tailwind should have pushed up retail sales.]]> Sun, 14 Apr 2013 08:58:38 -0400
all of these indices are noisy. census pasteurizes and homogenizes the data to the extent you do not understand whether you are coming or going. there are a lot of dynamics in play - but i suggest the number of paydays in the month may be the governing dynamic. there were 5 paydays in March. this tailwind should have pushed up retail sales.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1324991/comments?source=feed#comment-17352361 17352361
but the real point is that the eurocrisis is not necessarily negative to the USA economy. we are seeing today inflows from Europe (and Japan).]]> Mon, 08 Apr 2013 10:04:06 -0400
but the real point is that the eurocrisis is not necessarily negative to the USA economy. we are seeing today inflows from Europe (and Japan).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1280501/comments?source=feed#comment-16434011 16434011 Mon, 18 Mar 2013 09:45:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/1632011-weekly-economic-review-seems-the-economy-is-great-or-is-it?source=feed#comment-16090271 16090271
i do not see any solution using the current economic and fiscal tools we believe are proper - therefore the solution is in tools most are rejecting, or in tools we have yet to envision. on tool - i see no reason for the government to issue debt documents, but on the other hand, i fear the government would destroy the economy.

but in all cases we need to regear the economy. our social programs are not in sync with the way the fiscal part of the economy is structure. there are many ways to do this.]]> Sun, 10 Mar 2013 09:04:55 -0400
i do not see any solution using the current economic and fiscal tools we believe are proper - therefore the solution is in tools most are rejecting, or in tools we have yet to envision. on tool - i see no reason for the government to issue debt documents, but on the other hand, i fear the government would destroy the economy.

but in all cases we need to regear the economy. our social programs are not in sync with the way the fiscal part of the economy is structure. there are many ways to do this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1260711/comments?source=feed#comment-16088951 16088951
This article was drafted in response to those who believe it is possible to cut spending to get the federal budget in order.]]> Sun, 10 Mar 2013 08:07:11 -0400
This article was drafted in response to those who believe it is possible to cut spending to get the federal budget in order.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/1607071-weekly-summary-sequester-is-not-the-big-story?source=feed#comment-15758801 15758801 Sun, 03 Mar 2013 09:07:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1152381/comments?source=feed#comment-14527341 14527341 Sun, 03 Feb 2013 21:21:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1152381/comments?source=feed#comment-14527171 14527171
having worked in several countries on the list - i think the list is "relatively" correct - but as you point out may be lacking in expressing the total tax load.]]> Sun, 03 Feb 2013 21:13:10 -0500
having worked in several countries on the list - i think the list is "relatively" correct - but as you point out may be lacking in expressing the total tax load.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1108391/comments?source=feed#comment-13637761 13637761 Sat, 12 Jan 2013 20:34:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1086811/comments?source=feed#comment-13136251 13136251 Sun, 30 Dec 2012 23:54:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1066221/comments?source=feed#comment-12652301 12652301 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 09:36:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1052931/comments?source=feed#comment-12408491 12408491 Sat, 08 Dec 2012 22:15:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/1328951-should-we-take-ecri-s-recession-call-seriously?source=feed#comment-12165661 12165661
i am not a lover of using monetary metrics (as you know) - so obviously i am not using this for any of my forecasting. i would use this as a secondary or confirming metric to what the other metrics are saying. i tend to lean heaviest on transport metrics, followed by import metrics. i would love to rely on certain employment metrics but i do not trust them in real time.]]> Sun, 02 Dec 2012 09:40:16 -0500
i am not a lover of using monetary metrics (as you know) - so obviously i am not using this for any of my forecasting. i would use this as a secondary or confirming metric to what the other metrics are saying. i tend to lean heaviest on transport metrics, followed by import metrics. i would love to rely on certain employment metrics but i do not trust them in real time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/1328951-should-we-take-ecri-s-recession-call-seriously?source=feed#comment-12157411 12157411
a forecasting tool we use for forecasting employment is at the same levels (and downtrending) when the USA entered the great recession.]]> Sat, 01 Dec 2012 21:24:43 -0500
a forecasting tool we use for forecasting employment is at the same levels (and downtrending) when the USA entered the great recession.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/1328951-should-we-take-ecri-s-recession-call-seriously?source=feed#comment-12157301 12157301
in 4Q2012, there will be a significant headwind from inventory depletion - and my bet is there will be a slight reduction in consumption based on trend lines. this would be more than enough to put the USA in a technical recession.]]> Sat, 01 Dec 2012 21:11:22 -0500
in 4Q2012, there will be a significant headwind from inventory depletion - and my bet is there will be a slight reduction in consumption based on trend lines. this would be more than enough to put the USA in a technical recession.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1026191/comments?source=feed#comment-11919851 11919851
the concept of collective bargaining is based on two opposing sides - where is the opposing side if both parties are sitting on the same side of the table? it was Kennedy signed Executive Order 10988 which started this ball rolling. It is clear that this process has now created several monsters - and that the system itself needs adjustment.

At this moment, it likely is the government itself who is the villain. the political system created a law, and left it on the books even when there is evidence it is not working correctly. The process throughout the federal, state and local governments needs sunset provisions on all laws and regulations.]]> Sat, 24 Nov 2012 10:54:21 -0500
the concept of collective bargaining is based on two opposing sides - where is the opposing side if both parties are sitting on the same side of the table? it was Kennedy signed Executive Order 10988 which started this ball rolling. It is clear that this process has now created several monsters - and that the system itself needs adjustment.

At this moment, it likely is the government itself who is the villain. the political system created a law, and left it on the books even when there is evidence it is not working correctly. The process throughout the federal, state and local governments needs sunset provisions on all laws and regulations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/899162-jon-springer/1274961-can-they-spare-a-penny-a-click-for-international-coverage?source=feed#comment-11587521 11587521
their mailing lists are predicated on subject matter - and doubt they have a mailing list for "sri lanka". so they are trying to get you to conform to their system by getting you to match your posts investment touts to their system.

all of the authors on SA have had your problem in the past - and yes, it upsets me when it happens - so i can totally sympathize. but SA offers great exposure, and the good more than makes up for this kind of frustration.

good luck.]]> Wed, 14 Nov 2012 09:37:06 -0500
their mailing lists are predicated on subject matter - and doubt they have a mailing list for "sri lanka". so they are trying to get you to conform to their system by getting you to match your posts investment touts to their system.

all of the authors on SA have had your problem in the past - and yes, it upsets me when it happens - so i can totally sympathize. but SA offers great exposure, and the good more than makes up for this kind of frustration.

good luck.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/997621/comments?source=feed#comment-11490341 11490341 Mon, 12 Nov 2012 00:00:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/997621/comments?source=feed#comment-11487651 11487651
trade unions, companies - all got waivers of various types for Obamacare. i have not read each one, but the waivers expire differently, and all expire by 2014.

the Nebraska waiver was given to all states in the final reconciliation of the bill before it became law.]]> Sun, 11 Nov 2012 20:34:41 -0500
trade unions, companies - all got waivers of various types for Obamacare. i have not read each one, but the waivers expire differently, and all expire by 2014.

the Nebraska waiver was given to all states in the final reconciliation of the bill before it became law.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/997621/comments?source=feed#comment-11471701 11471701
it is important that disinformation be refuted. please refer to the USA governments own website : http://1.usa.gov/TTxy0o which states the following:

"Employers may refuse or restrict [Obamacare] coverage for other reasons (such as part-time employment), as long as these are unrelated to your health status and are applied consistently."

so no - 100 part time employees are not equal to 96 full time. the law specifically exempts employers from Obamacare for part-time employees.]]> Sun, 11 Nov 2012 06:45:23 -0500
it is important that disinformation be refuted. please refer to the USA governments own website : http://1.usa.gov/TTxy0o which states the following:

"Employers may refuse or restrict [Obamacare] coverage for other reasons (such as part-time employment), as long as these are unrelated to your health status and are applied consistently."

so no - 100 part time employees are not equal to 96 full time. the law specifically exempts employers from Obamacare for part-time employees.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/976491/comments?source=feed#comment-11231511 11231511 i have read both yours and PM's comments and both are correct. what PM is saying that the USA system taxes domestic production - and does not tax foreign production. most countries refund all taxes paid for exports (the USA does not do this either).

so the USA starts from an inferior position - and this is the problem. VAT is the only way around this that i am aware (duties are not possible under current agreements).

However, your points on the income tax system are equally as valid. I don't see why a VAT system cannot coexist with the existing system for goods. many countries allow credit by individuals and companies against income taxes for VAT paid.]]> Mon, 05 Nov 2012 00:06:33 -0500 i have read both yours and PM's comments and both are correct. what PM is saying that the USA system taxes domestic production - and does not tax foreign production. most countries refund all taxes paid for exports (the USA does not do this either).

so the USA starts from an inferior position - and this is the problem. VAT is the only way around this that i am aware (duties are not possible under current agreements).

However, your points on the income tax system are equally as valid. I don't see why a VAT system cannot coexist with the existing system for goods. many countries allow credit by individuals and companies against income taxes for VAT paid.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/976491/comments?source=feed#comment-11228011 11228011 Sun, 04 Nov 2012 20:55:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/976491/comments?source=feed#comment-11227901 11227901 Sun, 04 Nov 2012 20:49:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/976491/comments?source=feed#comment-11216131 11216131 Sun, 04 Nov 2012 09:43:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/922271/comments?source=feed#comment-10512071 10512071
every week i review the rail situation overall by backing out coal and grain http://bit.ly/RoHHOo. note that the last two or three weeks have started showing improvement in the intuitive portions. however, for economic trends, i have been using a four week rolling average which is just beginning to show a POSSIBLE trend change.]]> Sun, 14 Oct 2012 09:02:59 -0400
every week i review the rail situation overall by backing out coal and grain http://bit.ly/RoHHOo. note that the last two or three weeks have started showing improvement in the intuitive portions. however, for economic trends, i have been using a four week rolling average which is just beginning to show a POSSIBLE trend change.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/908641/comments?source=feed#comment-10253821 10253821 Sun, 07 Oct 2012 08:04:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/882471/comments?source=feed#comment-9788181 9788181 Mon, 24 Sep 2012 09:18:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/882471/comments?source=feed#comment-9787991 9787991 Mon, 24 Sep 2012 09:15:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/882471/comments?source=feed#comment-9787831 9787831 2) since my post disputed views that gasoline usage is a "good" economic indicator, i did not list the pundits. this is not a personal thing to me, and a roll-call just makes this personal.]]> Mon, 24 Sep 2012 09:10:52 -0400 2) since my post disputed views that gasoline usage is a "good" economic indicator, i did not list the pundits. this is not a personal thing to me, and a roll-call just makes this personal.]]>