Duude

Charlie Gasparino: Another Crash 'Has to Happen Again'

I'm surprised CNBC has provided Gasparino with so many opportunities each and every day to push his book. Its so, so, so overdone I refuse to buy it just because of the promos. Now they can count me as one less viewer.

A slightly tongue-in-cheek contrary indicator - based on the percentage of Harvard MBAs taking market-sensitive positions - says that the lower numbers of grads flocking to the Street may be a positive market signal.

On Nov 05 06:25 PM Doddplan wrote:

> This market does nothing but go up

Uh,....don't look now but look out below!!!!!!

George Soros: The Guru Outlook

More to the point, if George Soros speaks of his holdings its only with a mind to find new followers who might provide him with additional liquidity to buy up what he now wants to sell off.


On Oct 30 01:52 PM Sovestor wrote:

> When George Soros says one thing and has position in certain companies
> and asset classes, it does not mean he will not change his mind in
> a second and have completely different positions and views at the
> same time.

George Soros: The Guru Outlook

".....a look into the mind of George Soros."
Sounds like a Halloween horror.

Tax Credits, Screwdrivers, and Supply and Demand Curves

The first time homebuyer tax credit appears to be targeting home builders more than homebuyers or sellers. The industry has been pretty much idle for more than a year and the low end home market is actually easier to move than moderate or upper end homes which are currently in a glut state.

Homebuyer Tax Credit: Update

The first time homebuyer tax credit is some of the worst legislation to come around in quite a while. It doesn't do what it was advertised to do. First of all, first time homeowners are very rarely buying high end homes. Typically they buy low end homes, and in fact $8000 credit won't influence anyone to buy a more expensive home, though no one will turn it down of course. The low end market isn't in need of a big influx of homebuyers. The tax credit is really more a gift to home builders who are otherwise out of work being that the home market is flooded with bank owned homes ready for the market. As things stand now we're coming to the end of the time period for qualifying for the tax credit but new buying of these same homes had already dried up anyway. The fact of the matter is this economic rebound strategy is a waste of taxpayer money and useless in the face of millions of homes valued out of range of first time homebuyers. What the real estate market really needs is a rebounding job market and time.

Until recently, conventional logic says, U.S. car buyers cared little about fuel economy and preferred big, gas-guzzling (profitable) SUVs. But now former GM economist Walter McManus says carmakers systematically dismissed research to the contrary: "Our job was not to seek the truth, but to justify decisions that had already been made."

I don't know all those soccer moms chauffeuring their kids around town really wanted to do the job in a low to the ground econo box with paper machete doors and a foldaway front end. Now that McManus works for the University of Michigan he needs to please his new boss.

The healthy demand for Treasurys so far this week may encourage Tim Geithner in his plan to lock in low rates for the government, stretching maturity to 72 months from a 26-year low of 49 months. A good plan - if he can pull it off without pressuring interest rates.

If only we could refinance a couple of trillion of our 2 year debt to 30 years at 4%. Now that's real dreaming.

GMAC Financial Services is reportedly in talks with the Treasury Department for its third lifeline: between $2.8B and $5.6B in fresh capital, on top of the $12.5B the lender has received since December, coming via preferred stock.

Note how little play this story gets tomorrow. This will be buried, and the funding will continue.

How to Boost U.S. Exports

We could shake our fist at China or any other protectionist country demanding that we both eliminate all tariffs, but it won't do any good. While there may be an argument that we are much less protectionist than others and thus have more to gain, our relatively transparent lawmaking puts us at a huge disadvantage. If China didn't set up tariffs they could very easily subsidize to an even greater extent making the lowering of tariffs of no consequence while politicians in the US would reveal to all any secret subsidization of our own industry. Simply speaking we can't keep a secret and subsidizing industry is bad in the long run anyway. Just ask Japan. Any mutual agreement to drop tariffs would leave us the big loser as China, Europe, Russia,......everybody would secretly subsidize industry while in America loose lips would sink our ship.

Even after its huge day - trading at 56 times its estimated earnings - is Amazon.com (AMZN +26.8%) still cheap at $118.49? The median price target for Wall Street analysts is $125, and FBR and Benchmark say $130 and $143 respectively.

I wonder what one more call from politicians to apply a sales tax to Internet sales would do to Amazon? Doesn't matter if nothing is done, its always the talk that scares market participants. I figure California legislators will bring it up again real soon.

The House Oversight Committee subpoenas Countrywide (BAC) over whether it gave favored terms to lawmakers and other VIPs, after Chairman Edolphus Towns says the company failed to cooperate. While Sen. Chris Dodd escaped a Senate ethics probe, this news revives the investigation.

Edolphus Towns' own name came up with others that received favored terms. There are also plenty more names besides himself, Dodd and Conrad. Towns has been blocking this for months now. This must be the new ethical Congress that Pelosi promised us back in January. Uh...ethically challenged.

Goldman Sachs (GS) says it's not systemically significant and that it doesn't enjoy any government guarantee - not even an implicit guarantee - prompting Jonathan Weil to ask, are you laughing yet?

Goldman Sachs wants us to forget about the billions we funneled to them through AIG much as GE is happy as a clam knowing they don't have to cut anyone's pay even though they were the beneficiaries of $160 billion of government guaranteed loans which was a far better deal than the TARP deal. These loans were a political payoff for NBC news coverage of the Obama administration.

The Hypocrisy and High Stakes of Healthcare Reform

I agree with most all points but I think doctors discussing options, risks and costs regarding different options is still not enough. If everyone is using 'an allowance' to buy their own insurance, patients will usually always be agreeable to another test, so long as its not very invasive nor dangerous. They've already paid their insurance and will instinctively soak up all the benefits of the extra cautious approach because it doesn't cost them more. Tort reform is critical but I would also recommend an overhaul of how hospitals make their money. Quality care at an affordable price is the goal. Hospitals make money for quality care which includes procedures, treatments, and tests. The tests must be farmed out to onsite medical research companies with no financial ties to the hospitals.

On Oct 22 07:32 AM fwi wrote:

> The central problem with health care expenditures is that consumers
> think of their insurance like an all-you-can-eat buffet. They overconsume,
> primarily because "it is already paid for", and they do not know
> what anything costs. Doctors often over-treat because of fear of
> grotesque lawsuits. And insurers only compete within a state, often
> with very few players.
>
> We no more need the Federal Government to take over our healthcare
> than we need a Federal bureaucrat picking out our clothes. Wholesale
> overhaul is complete madness. We need only address the above three
> issues in the following ways:
> 1. Each consumer uses his own allowance to buy his own insurance.
> For those employers who want to provide , fine, but not in purchased
> insurance, but with money to the employee. For the person who cannot
> afford insurance, the government provides the consumer with a cash
> allowance, with the freedom to use it as he would any other life
> sustaining purchase. For example, food stamps allow the consumer
> to purchase his own food choices. If food stamps were run like a
> public option, then the Feds would tell the consumer what brand of
> bacon to buy, how often he could buy it, and what store he was required
> to use. How long would anyone stand for that?
> 2. Doctors would stop over-prescribing procedures and tests if they
> told the patients what each cost, and what the dangers were if the
> tests were not done. The two then decide how best to manage the
> risks and benefits. Out of control lawsuits would be capped. One
> thing that everyone has forgotten is that the practice of medicine
> is as much an art as a science. To hold doctors to a standard of
> infallibility is unfair, as politicians and money managers are clearly
> not.
> 3. We are in a global economy and insurance cannot be purchased
> across state lines. The consumer then overpays to an insurer who
> is under challenged by the marketplace. This crazy law must be overturned.
> If you live in Florida and can buy controlled drugs in Canada, why
> cannot you buy cheaper insurance from Georgia?
>
> None of these reforms cost a dime, no new bureaucracies and entitlements
> created. Consumers take control of their own health care, insurers
> would have a more competitive marketplace, and doctors would practice
> more common sense medicine and less "defensive" medicine.
>
> If the Federal Government has decided that the citizens of this country
> cannot handle their own healthcare decisions, then what is the next
> thing they will decide we cannot handle? We must be beware of the
> unthinkable, because it is already happening.

Jobless Recovery: Few Winners, Many Losers

Credit card rates are rising due to higher default rates as well as Congress attempt to fashion a new bill to make more credit card rules more transparent. The bill they passed goes into effect next year and among other things requires companies to give consumers plenty of notice before raising interest rates. Credit card companies claim they're reacting to the bill.