Focus Advisory's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/226811/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/157244-lilly-s-arzoxifene-defeat-pharma-giant-s-pipeline-looks-awfully-dry-now?source=feed#comment-638515 638515 Regards]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 15:00:58 -0400 Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156360-hansen-poised-to-benefit-from-new-products-international-expansion?source=feed#comment-634697 634697
Regards]]> Tue, 18 Aug 2009 10:34:11 -0400
Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155944-icici-bank-the-slide-continues?source=feed#comment-630116 630116
Most notably, ICICI is majority owner of not yet profitable ICICI-Prudential...the largest non goverment owned insurance company in India.

Regards]]> Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:55:47 -0400
Most notably, ICICI is majority owner of not yet profitable ICICI-Prudential...the largest non goverment owned insurance company in India.

Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151035-china-s-medical-device-industry-growing-market-new-regulations-fuel-competition?source=feed#comment-600958 600958
Regards]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 11:37:34 -0400
Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141987-will-natural-gas-be-the-next-to-rally?source=feed#comment-539100 539100 UNG is the best risk reward trade in the market for remainder of 09.
Regards]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:49:38 -0400 UNG is the best risk reward trade in the market for remainder of 09.
Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137984-atp-oil-gas-s-forgotten-infrastructure-value?source=feed#comment-508702 508702 Regards ]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 15:52:48 -0400 Regards ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135224-potential-eastern-european-economic-collapse-worries-me?source=feed#comment-496123 496123
Regards]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 17:52:04 -0400
Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136463-how-serious-was-yesterday-s-treasury-auction?source=feed#comment-495766 495766
A good way to play the Australian and Canadian $ is the closed end fund FCO. A currency fund with a 9% yeild.

Regards]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 13:09:30 -0400
A good way to play the Australian and Canadian $ is the closed end fund FCO. A currency fund with a 9% yeild.

Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134948-positioning-for-major-reversal-in-natural-gas-prices?source=feed#comment-492657 492657 I don't think gas goes below $3, but gas will pull back again to test the low. Price is not a catalyst to buy. The catalyst will come late summer early fall when prices are low and investors are betting on a recovery in 2010 and its coming winter weather.
Natgas stocks are WAY ahead of themeselves. If they don't come back as gas does, I'll play the rebound with UNG.

Regards]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 16:28:16 -0400 I don't think gas goes below $3, but gas will pull back again to test the low. Price is not a catalyst to buy. The catalyst will come late summer early fall when prices are low and investors are betting on a recovery in 2010 and its coming winter weather.
Natgas stocks are WAY ahead of themeselves. If they don't come back as gas does, I'll play the rebound with UNG.

Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134914-there-are-opportunities-everywhere-barron-s-interview?source=feed#comment-490644 490644 If you're smart enough to type morningstar.com into your browser, you should have the mental capacity to find a few of the 30% of manangers who always beat the indexes.
Diversification is a hedge against ignorance, which makes index investing the height of stupidity.

Regards


On May 03 07:04 PM berated wrote:

> Interesting. I'd like to hear the author's perspective on the following
> recent research showing active managers did much worse than index
> funds:
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> From the linked article:
>
> "More than 70% of all actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds trailed
> their benchmarks for the five years ending 2008, according to the
> new Standard & Poor's Index Versus Active Fund Scorecard (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
>
>
> "The new report shows that 71.9% of actively managed large-cap funds
> trailed the S&P 500; 75.9% of actively managed mid-cap funds
> trailed the S&P MidCap 400; and a stunning 85.5% of actively
> managed small-cap funds trailed the S&P SmallCap 600.
>
> S&P says the results were consistent with the previous five-year
> cycle, from 1999 to 2003.
>
> The belief that bear markets strongly favor active management is
> a myth," said Srikant Dash, global head of Research & Design
> at Standard & Poor's, in a statement. "A majority of active funds
> in each of the nine domestic equity style boxes were outperformed
> by indices during the down markets of 2008. The bear market of 2000
> to 2002 showed similar outcomes."]]> Tue, 05 May 2009 14:13:55 -0400 If you're smart enough to type morningstar.com into your browser, you should have the mental capacity to find a few of the 30% of manangers who always beat the indexes.
Diversification is a hedge against ignorance, which makes index investing the height of stupidity.

Regards


On May 03 07:04 PM berated wrote:

> Interesting. I'd like to hear the author's perspective on the following
> recent research showing active managers did much worse than index
> funds:
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> From the linked article:
>
> "More than 70% of all actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds trailed
> their benchmarks for the five years ending 2008, according to the
> new Standard & Poor's Index Versus Active Fund Scorecard (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
>
>
> "The new report shows that 71.9% of actively managed large-cap funds
> trailed the S&P 500; 75.9% of actively managed mid-cap funds
> trailed the S&P MidCap 400; and a stunning 85.5% of actively
> managed small-cap funds trailed the S&P SmallCap 600.
>
> S&P says the results were consistent with the previous five-year
> cycle, from 1999 to 2003.
>
> The belief that bear markets strongly favor active management is
> a myth," said Srikant Dash, global head of Research & Design
> at Standard & Poor's, in a statement. "A majority of active funds
> in each of the nine domestic equity style boxes were outperformed
> by indices during the down markets of 2008. The bear market of 2000
> to 2002 showed similar outcomes."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133082-atp-oil-gas-value-after-a-stock-and-commodity-collapse?source=feed#comment-482734 482734 ATP changed when it sold 9% of its reserves to EDF and 49% of the Innovator to GE. Look at the dates these assets were monetized...it was near the Oct low in the market and the March low.
Assets have been monetized and assets will be monetized. Debt is therefor NOT an issue. Assets cover debt...you could easily make the argument that ATP is underleveraged.

Regards]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 12:24:38 -0400 ATP changed when it sold 9% of its reserves to EDF and 49% of the Innovator to GE. Look at the dates these assets were monetized...it was near the Oct low in the market and the March low.
Assets have been monetized and assets will be monetized. Debt is therefor NOT an issue. Assets cover debt...you could easily make the argument that ATP is underleveraged.

Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130362-china-medical-technologies-retooling-and-rebounding?source=feed#comment-462157 462157 No need to own CMED when you can own MR (Mindray Medical). Bigger, growing faster, better balance sheet, and more diversified product line.
Both may benefit from China's major health care announcement last week, but MR is the better company and stock.

Regards]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 19:56:00 -0400 No need to own CMED when you can own MR (Mindray Medical). Bigger, growing faster, better balance sheet, and more diversified product line.
Both may benefit from China's major health care announcement last week, but MR is the better company and stock.

Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108415-gold-the-next-reserve-currency-player?source=feed#comment-318384 318384 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:44:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108426-how-wall-street-has-failed-the-individual-investor?source=feed#comment-318085 318085 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 09:57:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104983-can-china-take-up-consumption-slack-from-the-u-s?source=feed#comment-303328 303328 The Chinese are trying to hold up exporters, but will realize a stronger currency will increase consumption. In so doing, they will also accomplish their goal of moving their exporters up the supply chain as they are forced to become more competetive.
Bottom line: The Yuan will rise and Chinese consumption will rise in kind. Having said that, it will not happen overnight, but will be a strong trend over the next 3-5 years.
Get long the Yaun with CYB. I am long this note for clients and believe it will provide a bond like return over the next 5 years. The underlying currency that you are invested in over the next 3-5 years will be the most important decision an investor makes.
Thank you for the article...good stuff.
]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:33:20 -0500 The Chinese are trying to hold up exporters, but will realize a stronger currency will increase consumption. In so doing, they will also accomplish their goal of moving their exporters up the supply chain as they are forced to become more competetive.
Bottom line: The Yuan will rise and Chinese consumption will rise in kind. Having said that, it will not happen overnight, but will be a strong trend over the next 3-5 years.
Get long the Yaun with CYB. I am long this note for clients and believe it will provide a bond like return over the next 5 years. The underlying currency that you are invested in over the next 3-5 years will be the most important decision an investor makes.
Thank you for the article...good stuff.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105341-positive-signs-in-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-302914 302914 Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:59:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105061-should-we-really-bail-out-the-big-three-automakers-with-73-20-per-hour-labor?source=feed#comment-301785 301785 Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:29:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103291-chesapeake-energy-unlikely-to-remain-this-cheap?source=feed#comment-297629 297629 Mon, 03 Nov 2008 17:58:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102337-china-wants-the-u-s-dollar-to-drop-dead?source=feed#comment-292358 292358 Yesterday I began to take advantage of the $US strength to begin to sell. For all the reasons mentioned above and the fact that 65% of todays foreign exchange reserves are held in $US convinces me this is the turning point in the global currency markets.
There will be a new world order.]]> Tue, 28 Oct 2008 10:08:12 -0400 Yesterday I began to take advantage of the $US strength to begin to sell. For all the reasons mentioned above and the fact that 65% of todays foreign exchange reserves are held in $US convinces me this is the turning point in the global currency markets.
There will be a new world order.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99644-china-mobile-looks-like-value-smells-like-growth?source=feed#comment-282071 282071 Even with new and increased competition, the long term trend is up. ]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 10:58:49 -0400 Even with new and increased competition, the long term trend is up. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90533-re-entering-china-a-plan-comes-together?source=feed#comment-229026 229026
The single greatest reason to buy China after a 60%+ correction is because only 8% of all Chinese wealth is invested in the stock market. It is the lowest level in Asia and compares to 35-40% in the U.S. and the EU. Money flow moves markets and the long-term trend of money flow from this point in the market is higher...higher for years to come.

Regards]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:14:59 -0400
The single greatest reason to buy China after a 60%+ correction is because only 8% of all Chinese wealth is invested in the stock market. It is the lowest level in Asia and compares to 35-40% in the U.S. and the EU. Money flow moves markets and the long-term trend of money flow from this point in the market is higher...higher for years to come.

Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90597-ldk-solar-nearly-doubles-estimates?source=feed#comment-229020 229020
Regards]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:08:50 -0400
Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90597-ldk-solar-nearly-doubles-estimates?source=feed#comment-228881 228881 Thin film companies do not use their matkerials and leading poly based solars like SPWR, YGE, ESLR, and STP do not use their materials.
LDK has no technology, they buy all their manufacturing tech from GT Solar.
All they have is debt as they race to build out before the market collpases. Over the next three years, there will be a major solar shakeout. Thin film players will win and new leaders like Nanosolar and Heliovolt will emerge.
Today's action tells us that. A company that has 90% QoQ growth and blows the numbers out only rises to where it was a couple months back.
Maybe the stock goes higher in the very near term, but 3 years from now it will be in single digitville on its way to nowhere.
Good luck]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 17:14:40 -0400 Thin film companies do not use their matkerials and leading poly based solars like SPWR, YGE, ESLR, and STP do not use their materials.
LDK has no technology, they buy all their manufacturing tech from GT Solar.
All they have is debt as they race to build out before the market collpases. Over the next three years, there will be a major solar shakeout. Thin film players will win and new leaders like Nanosolar and Heliovolt will emerge.
Today's action tells us that. A company that has 90% QoQ growth and blows the numbers out only rises to where it was a couple months back.
Maybe the stock goes higher in the very near term, but 3 years from now it will be in single digitville on its way to nowhere.
Good luck]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90123-icici-bank-unwarranted-beating-proven-growth-prospects?source=feed#comment-227276 227276
Three out of every ten children in the world live in India and 300 million Indians are expected to enter the workforce between now and 2025.

As India matures, nearly every Indian will get a checking account, a loan, a mutual fund, a credit card, and/or insurance.

Because of India's demographics there may not be any single greater secular growth story in the world over the next 20 years.

Regards]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 16:26:25 -0400
Three out of every ten children in the world live in India and 300 million Indians are expected to enter the workforce between now and 2025.

As India matures, nearly every Indian will get a checking account, a loan, a mutual fund, a credit card, and/or insurance.

Because of India's demographics there may not be any single greater secular growth story in the world over the next 20 years.

Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89989-why-every-investor-needs-to-have-a-china-investment-strategy?source=feed#comment-226836 226836
China Mobile trading at 11x 2009 EPS
China Merchants Bank trading at 13x 2009 EPS (2008 EPS is still growing over 100%...some slowdown).
Focus Media trading at 10x 2009 EPS
Shanda Interactive trading at 9x 2009 EPS
...The list goes on and on.

There has been a tremendous amount of China bashing of late and it all smells of American ignorance. There is no factual basis for the argument that China will slow. If China were to slow it would be due to the U.S. and Europe falling off the face of the earth. If that were to happen, China is the country with $1.5Trillion in reserves. China is in the position to grow through any slowdown.

Bottom line: No signinficant slowdown coming and stocks are beginnin to look dirt cheap. If the market stays at these levels as earnings continue to grow, the market will be littered with high growth stocks trading at single digit PE's. China is here to stay, don't be ignorant of that fact.

Good luck]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 15:09:13 -0400
China Mobile trading at 11x 2009 EPS
China Merchants Bank trading at 13x 2009 EPS (2008 EPS is still growing over 100%...some slowdown).
Focus Media trading at 10x 2009 EPS
Shanda Interactive trading at 9x 2009 EPS
...The list goes on and on.

There has been a tremendous amount of China bashing of late and it all smells of American ignorance. There is no factual basis for the argument that China will slow. If China were to slow it would be due to the U.S. and Europe falling off the face of the earth. If that were to happen, China is the country with $1.5Trillion in reserves. China is in the position to grow through any slowdown.

Bottom line: No signinficant slowdown coming and stocks are beginnin to look dirt cheap. If the market stays at these levels as earnings continue to grow, the market will be littered with high growth stocks trading at single digit PE's. China is here to stay, don't be ignorant of that fact.

Good luck]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89989-why-every-investor-needs-to-have-a-china-investment-strategy?source=feed#comment-226835 226835 China today has only 8% of all assets in the stock market. It's the lowest percentage in Asia and compares to a 35%-40% rate for the U.S. and Euro countries.
The Chinese market is at bottom and money flow will take it higher for decades to come.

]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 14:58:07 -0400 China today has only 8% of all assets in the stock market. It's the lowest percentage in Asia and compares to a 35%-40% rate for the U.S. and Euro countries.
The Chinese market is at bottom and money flow will take it higher for decades to come.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88981-the-case-for-jamba-juice?source=feed#comment-222690 222690
They should reduce the size of their drinks by 35% and cut their prices by 25%...Increasing operating margins by 10% and volume on a lower price point.]]> Mon, 04 Aug 2008 17:32:14 -0400
They should reduce the size of their drinks by 35% and cut their prices by 25%...Increasing operating margins by 10% and volume on a lower price point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88677-bill-miller-on-this-tough-market?source=feed#comment-221653 221653
Financials have bottomed...They may drift down from current levels and stay flat in order to absurb their massive dilutions, but they have bottomed.

Housing has been dropping nationally for two years. It was reported this week that seven major markets saw month over month price increases. Las Vegas, Southern California, and Miami, which saw declines of 25% or more will not see prices fall another 25% from current levels. The stock market will anticipate this recovery.

European institutional investors, who have seen their currency double against the $US since 1998, and their stock markets outperform the S&P 500, are salivating at the mouth to buy dirt cheap $US denominated stocks. We're beginning to see this in M&A activity with buyouts of BUD and DNA.

Sovereign wealth funds are loaded to the rim with petro dollars and will continue to reinvest those funds into the global economy.

BRIC countries have $2.5Trillion (Yes Trillion) in reserves. Their economies, while slowing, continue to grow at a blistering pace. If their economies were to slow dramatically they have the capital to invest and grow their way out of a slowdown.

Oil did reach $150, but that spike will lead to the biggest tech boom the world has ever experienced. The tech boom of the 90's was driven by the U.S., Europe, and a few developed Asian economies. The coming alternative tech boom will include all of the above and China, India, Central & Eastern Europe. Once the capital, expertise, and energy of Silicon Valley is behind a trend, there is no turning back.

Finally, global markets are off more than 25% from their highs. If you cannot look forward through this market to see the opportunities after a 25% global correction you never will. Don't expect a major move in the market prior to the U.S. election, but come November have your seeds planted for a significant 4th quarter rally.


]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 14:57:45 -0400
Financials have bottomed...They may drift down from current levels and stay flat in order to absurb their massive dilutions, but they have bottomed.

Housing has been dropping nationally for two years. It was reported this week that seven major markets saw month over month price increases. Las Vegas, Southern California, and Miami, which saw declines of 25% or more will not see prices fall another 25% from current levels. The stock market will anticipate this recovery.

European institutional investors, who have seen their currency double against the $US since 1998, and their stock markets outperform the S&P 500, are salivating at the mouth to buy dirt cheap $US denominated stocks. We're beginning to see this in M&A activity with buyouts of BUD and DNA.

Sovereign wealth funds are loaded to the rim with petro dollars and will continue to reinvest those funds into the global economy.

BRIC countries have $2.5Trillion (Yes Trillion) in reserves. Their economies, while slowing, continue to grow at a blistering pace. If their economies were to slow dramatically they have the capital to invest and grow their way out of a slowdown.

Oil did reach $150, but that spike will lead to the biggest tech boom the world has ever experienced. The tech boom of the 90's was driven by the U.S., Europe, and a few developed Asian economies. The coming alternative tech boom will include all of the above and China, India, Central & Eastern Europe. Once the capital, expertise, and energy of Silicon Valley is behind a trend, there is no turning back.

Finally, global markets are off more than 25% from their highs. If you cannot look forward through this market to see the opportunities after a 25% global correction you never will. Don't expect a major move in the market prior to the U.S. election, but come November have your seeds planted for a significant 4th quarter rally.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87948-china-copper-prepare-for-crisis?source=feed#comment-218406 218406 Just six motnhs ago, China fronted the government of the Congo $12BILLION for access to the country's copper resources. Doubt they would pay such a sum to such an unstable source if they had all the copper they needed.
While I think copper could easily fall back to $3, Chinese demand will support the long-term trend. If, as you suggest, China must revalue its currency then copper goes through $4 in a week...stronger currency = higher demand.
Good luck]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 11:23:01 -0400 Just six motnhs ago, China fronted the government of the Congo $12BILLION for access to the country's copper resources. Doubt they would pay such a sum to such an unstable source if they had all the copper they needed.
While I think copper could easily fall back to $3, Chinese demand will support the long-term trend. If, as you suggest, China must revalue its currency then copper goes through $4 in a week...stronger currency = higher demand.
Good luck]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85058-chinese-solar-stocks-present-compelling-value?source=feed#comment-206404 206404 I think YGE, LDK, and STP are enticing, but you can buy ESLR and SPWR, each of which have better technology, a similar valuation (ESLR to YGE and SPWR to STP) and should have the weak $US at their backs for some time to come.
In the end it's a technology business and a margin business and the Chinese solars have niether.
Good luck
]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:11:22 -0400 I think YGE, LDK, and STP are enticing, but you can buy ESLR and SPWR, each of which have better technology, a similar valuation (ESLR to YGE and SPWR to STP) and should have the weak $US at their backs for some time to come.
In the end it's a technology business and a margin business and the Chinese solars have niether.
Good luck
]]>