Focus Advisory

Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor?

You've hit the nail on the nead...Thank you

Positioning for Major Reversal in Natural Gas Prices

The move up from the low of $3.20 is a head fake. The market is greatly over supplied, LNG is set to double this year, and industrial demand should weaken further with multiple auto plants going idle this summer.
I don't think gas goes below $3, but gas will pull back again to test the low. Price is not a catalyst to buy. The catalyst will come late summer early fall when prices are low and investors are betting on a recovery in 2010 and its coming winter weather.
Natgas stocks are WAY ahead of themeselves. If they don't come back as gas does, I'll play the rebound with UNG.

Regards

ATP Oil & Gas: Value After a Stock and Commodity Collapse

I have followed ATP for 3 years and must admit this is the most comprehensive article I've read. If I had the time, it's exactly how I would tell the story.
ATP changed when it sold 9% of its reserves to EDF and 49% of the Innovator to GE. Look at the dates these assets were monetized...it was near the Oct low in the market and the March low.
Assets have been monetized and assets will be monetized. Debt is therefor NOT an issue. Assets cover debt...you could easily make the argument that ATP is underleveraged.

Regards

China Medical Technologies: Retooling and Rebounding

You failed to mention CMED sold it's HIFU biz to it's CEO. As a long time trader of CMED, I would argue any deal as insestuous as this is a major red flag.
No need to own CMED when you can own MR (Mindray Medical). Bigger, growing faster, better balance sheet, and more diversified product line.
Both may benefit from China's major health care announcement last week, but MR is the better company and stock.

Regards

Lilly's Arzoxifene Defeat: Pharma Giant's Pipeline Looks Awfully Dry Now

Lack of LLY pipleline is one reason I am buying AMLN at these levels. Will be shocked if LLY has not aquired its Byetta partner by this time next year.
Regards

Will Natural Gas Be the Next to Rally?

The north American rig count is down 52% since last year. Production is coming off in a big way and when demand crosses over, the price will go up 50% in one month.
UNG is the best risk reward trade in the market for remainder of 09.
Regards

ATP Oil & Gas's Forgotten Infrastructure Value

ATP won't sell all these assets, but may monetize 49% of them...just as they did with the Innovator. So perhaps they net $500mil-$650mil. Bottom line is the company has enough cash on hand to cover all debt due 2011. The remaing debt is not due until July 2014. Once the 2011 debt is paid down, the stock should go much higher.
Regards

How Serious Was Yesterday's Treasury Auction?

In regards to the Japan scenario you metion...when the Japanese economic bubble burst, Japan was a creditor nation.

A good way to play the Australian and Canadian $ is the closed end fund FCO. A currency fund with a 9% yeild.

Regards

There Are Opportunities Everywhere - Barron's Interview

As an active manager, I love to hear the story of how 70% (or greater) of mutual funds underperform their respective indexes... It means 30% outperformed!
If you're smart enough to type morningstar.com into your browser, you should have the mental capacity to find a few of the 30% of manangers who always beat the indexes.
Diversification is a hedge against ignorance, which makes index investing the height of stupidity.

Regards


On May 03 07:04 PM berated wrote:

> Interesting. I'd like to hear the author's perspective on the following
> recent research showing active managers did much worse than index
> funds:
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> From the linked article:
>
> "More than 70% of all actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds trailed
> their benchmarks for the five years ending 2008, according to the
> new Standard & Poor's Index Versus Active Fund Scorecard (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
>
>
> "The new report shows that 71.9% of actively managed large-cap funds
> trailed the S&P 500; 75.9% of actively managed mid-cap funds
> trailed the S&P MidCap 400; and a stunning 85.5% of actively
> managed small-cap funds trailed the S&P SmallCap 600.
>
> S&P says the results were consistent with the previous five-year
> cycle, from 1999 to 2003.
>
> The belief that bear markets strongly favor active management is
> a myth," said Srikant Dash, global head of Research & Design
> at Standard & Poor's, in a statement. "A majority of active funds
> in each of the nine domestic equity style boxes were outperformed
> by indices during the down markets of 2008. The bear market of 2000
> to 2002 showed similar outcomes."

Positive Signs in Emerging Markets

Very well done, thank you

Hansen Poised to Benefit from New Products, International Expansion

Well balanced article with great information. Thank you. Saw the gap up after earnings and am suprised to see the pull back last few days. I expect little out of the overall market here, but HANS is a stock that may buck the trend.

Regards

ICICI Bank: The Slide Continues

I concur with much of the article, but what the author fails to mention is the off balance sheet strength of ICICI.

Most notably, ICICI is majority owner of not yet profitable ICICI-Prudential...the largest non goverment owned insurance company in India.

Regards

China's Medical Device Industry: Growing Market, New Regulations Fuel Competition

Thank you...comprehensive and informative.

Regards

Potential Eastern European Economic Collapse Worries Me

This was one of the worst articles I've ever read on SA. No statistical data to support the thesis. If there had been it would prove the thesis is nonsense.

Regards

Gold: The Next Reserve Currency Player

Good thesis, but poor investment advice...FCX is 90% copper and AUY also has to much exposure to copper. GG is the only major with no debt and over $500m cash on the balance sheet. GFI will also benefit...currency down nearly 50% against $US, which means costs are down significantly.