Focus Advisory

ATP Oil & Gas's Forgotten Infrastructure Value

ATP won't sell all these assets, but may monetize 49% of them...just as they did with the Innovator. So perhaps they net $500mil-$650mil. Bottom line is the company has enough cash on hand to cover all debt due 2011. The remaing debt is not due until July 2014. Once the 2011 debt is paid down, the stock should go much higher.
Regards

Positioning for Major Reversal in Natural Gas Prices

The move up from the low of $3.20 is a head fake. The market is greatly over supplied, LNG is set to double this year, and industrial demand should weaken further with multiple auto plants going idle this summer.
I don't think gas goes below $3, but gas will pull back again to test the low. Price is not a catalyst to buy. The catalyst will come late summer early fall when prices are low and investors are betting on a recovery in 2010 and its coming winter weather.
Natgas stocks are WAY ahead of themeselves. If they don't come back as gas does, I'll play the rebound with UNG.

Regards

ATP Oil & Gas: Value After a Stock and Commodity Collapse

I have followed ATP for 3 years and must admit this is the most comprehensive article I've read. If I had the time, it's exactly how I would tell the story.
ATP changed when it sold 9% of its reserves to EDF and 49% of the Innovator to GE. Look at the dates these assets were monetized...it was near the Oct low in the market and the March low.
Assets have been monetized and assets will be monetized. Debt is therefor NOT an issue. Assets cover debt...you could easily make the argument that ATP is underleveraged.

Regards