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  • Who Will Be Swimming Naked When The Tide Goes Out? [View article]
    I always dislike the "it's been X time for the bull market so we're due for a correction" analysis.

    Part of my problem is that there's nothing that tell you how long a "bull market" should be, so I've been hearing this for at least three years... "we've gone up X% since the bottom so be careful".

    To me that's just meaningless.

    For instance, if you take another way to look at it, which is to look at what the market did over the past ten years, you find out the Dox is up 60% and the S&P 70% (to speak round numbers.)

    That makes the annual growth about 6% for the Dow and 7% for the S&P... Hardly something that calls for a massive correction is it?

    Now I have no idea if this is going to be a big correction or not as those moves always appear motivated mostly by a psychology I've never penetrated rather than real economic data, but the fact that the "bull market" has lasted for five years is really not meaningful, except maybe for a 21 year-old trader with no interest in understanding market history...
    Aug 4, 2014. 01:27 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Resolves Tax Dispute With Norwegian Authorities, Here's What We Know [View article]
    It's very helpful. Thanks Power Hedge!

    What is mind-boggling to me is that so many countries try to impose retroactive taxes. It's bad enough planning for what you know, but now you have to divine what taxes will be applied retroactively. I always thought that laws could not be retroactive was a basic principle of Western Law, but that principle is trampled again and again by governments looking only at short-term gains and not at the damage unpredictability does to economic activity.
    May 21, 2014. 01:41 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drilling For Yield In The Golden Triangle [View article]
    I wish I could be more positive, but dividends aren't paid out of net income, but cash flow and when it comes to debt, what it's used for is really the key.

    Unless you are considering a much longer-term outlook, SDRL's dividend is absolutely not in play. It was just risen and management said it would be at least maintain for the foreseeable future.

    In a much longer-term outlook, you can call anything and everything "unsafe", in my opinion.
    Mar 17, 2014. 01:45 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Discusses The Downturn In The Offshore Drilling Market [View article]
    John Frederiksen's interests are actually linked with common shareholders as he gets his pay from dividends.

    The idea that he is trying to pull a fast one is insulting to him and ridiculous on its face.

    I, for one, would love it if all the CEOs of the companies I own had their interests aligned with mine.
    Mar 12, 2014. 07:26 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Discusses The Downturn In The Offshore Drilling Market [View article]
    Since he is a billionaire and I assume you're not (apologies if you are) he seems to "get it" very well...

    I personally do not understand the "almost manic obsession" of the people pushing the "dividends or growth" orthodoxy, so there...

    I'm on the side of the guy who doesn't "get it"...

    Companies should be managed as companies with long-term objectives in mind, not to please a bunch of always-wrong analysts and make fees for investment bankers.

    John Frederiksen has aligned his interests with ours.

    I must also disagree with you about a share buyback. Most of those don't work for individual investors. They are indeed mostly "pipe dreams".

    One final question: Are you a short? If not why do you bother following a stock you clearly hate with a passion?

    I personally don't have that kind of time.
    Mar 12, 2014. 07:31 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd. Collapses After Suspending Its Dividend [View article]
    A Prudent Investor was a perma-frost guy... Saying bad things will happen all the time and "being early" about it by about two years was frankly worse than useless.

    Taking a victory lap when you've been this wrong for so long is just ridiculous.
    Nov 27, 2014. 11:00 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, Me Worry [View article]
    I'll bite what makes you think there'll be a crash in 2015? Same question for 2016?

    My crystal ball can't even tell me which way the market will go tomorrow (maybe it needs new batteries...) ;)

    Sorry if I sound churlish, but vague predictions of doom tend to do that to me. :)
    Aug 14, 2014. 09:15 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: What To Expect? [View article]
    Sorry but have to disagree with most of your post Budavar.

    Let's start with the positive: I do agree that they could be even more communicative about the fact they have a new, high-tech, safer fleet, which places them at a competitive advantage to the rest of the group, although I don't think it'd change the opinion of a single of the "analysts" given they refuse to do the homework.

    I am quite happy SDRL isn't doing a share buyback, as those often don't work. Dividend cash in my pocket works every time. :)

    Also, you really can't say that "shareholder assets have evaporated" when in fact shareholder equity has risen quite significantly this year.

    One should not equate stock price with the value of what you're buying when you buy the share.

    Now you might feel the price was too expensive before, but the underlying value has grown.

    Finally, I entirely disagree on placing blame for the stock price on the management and Board of SDRL. They are responsible for devising and enacting the strategy of the company and to communicate it clearly to those who want to hear.

    The fact analysts don't want to and there's enough people who still believe analyst ratings are worth anything is not really their fault.
    May 1, 2014. 01:03 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Should You Buy Or Run For The Hills? [View article]
    Frankly the SDRL chart rarely says much to me. However, the fact they just signed contracts for four jack-up rigs and an extension for a fifth one speaks volumes.
    Apr 2, 2014. 04:15 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Inside Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    Great article. I know a LOT more about the company now. Thank you.
    Jul 20, 2012. 02:31 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Path To Problems [View article]
    It's very hard to criticize an author and not have him feel "personally attacked". I understand that.

    However, when an article is as shoddy and pointless as this one is. How else do you say it?

    I have tried not to attack the motivations of the author, even though I'd never have the guts to publish something so skin-deep, but this article is just terrible and clearly we're not the only ones to think it.

    I welcome real negative arguments, but this is just a "me-too" article that seems to have no point other than try to generate a few quick page views.
    Feb 19, 2014. 01:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SeaDrill Will Regain Its Lost Value [View article]
    I just don't get how the people who are upset that SDRL is borrowing to build brand new rigs (what their business is all about) will be happier if SDRL borrows to buyback shares.

    The idea that you can't have growth and a dividend is financial orthodoxy, plain and simple and frankly I don't quite care how many investors are "spooked" by not understanding SDRL's strategy.

    I trust SDRL to effect its plans and make us a lot of money as it does, and the last thing I want them to do is listen to analysts and supposed experts who tell them that they don't know what they're doing...
    Feb 4, 2014. 07:42 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: An Attractive 10% Yielder [View article]
    Sorry, but why would anyone talk about a dividend cut for a company that has always increased its dividend.

    Any company can cut its dividend of course, but there's absolutely no particular reason to think SDRL is about to do that. Their business and income are growing and they made enough money earlier last quarter to cover the dividend for the whole year!

    High dividends (especially growing ones) actually do provide a trampoline for the stock price.
    Jan 29, 2014. 03:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd. Collapses After Suspending Its Dividend [View article]
    I'll emerge from my self-imposed silence to say I am entirly in agreement with you Chancer.

    The management is entirely discredited.

    You can't say you're going to save cash when you're going to waste it in a buyback.

    You also can't promise the dividend is safe for two years, turn around and "suspend" it.

    While I've been long out of SDRL, NADL and the whole cohort as I found the whole drilling sector had become un-investible from a technical point of view and then fundamentally as the price of oil unexpectedly fell down a hole, I am still shocked as I thought the management trust-worthy.

    They weren't.

    That said, the perma-frost people should not be too happy as they also kept themselves from great profits in the past few years, which is not something to brag about.
    Nov 26, 2014. 02:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Good Fortune Occurs When Preparation Meets Opportunity [View article]
    Analysts have been wrong over and over and not learned from their mistakes..?

    It always amazes me how analysts portray their own failings as the company "missing" when in reality they're the ones who have been unable to forecast accurately...

    Alternately you could also argue that Kinder-Morgan is terrible at spoon-feeding the analysts and should take a page from Steve Jobs' book and spoon-feed them very low estimates.
    Jul 15, 2014. 01:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment