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  • This Is Not A Game The Federal Reserve Wants [View article]
    Disagree with you. You don't RAISE rates in a deflationary environment. As far as GDP, the Atlanta FED just released their forecast for 3rd qtr and it does not look good. This economy is nowhere near as strong as you think it is. And is in no shape to sustain a rate hike cycle. Corporate profits have begun to revert to mean which means "lower". Consumer confidence surveys are beginning to weaken. "Desperation" to raise rates to normal levels is not a legitimate reason to do so.

    Aug 30, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe? [View article]
    Agree with you about stop losses. You can't leave them out there because the predators will come in and trigger them. If you want to us a stop use a trailing stop system (say 25%) and when the stock CLOSES trading at the 25% down level, place a market sell order the next trading day. That takes the emotion out of the trade and keeps your shares away from the vultures.
    As for ETFs, I don't like using them at all. They performed very badly this week mainly because they simply are not liquid enough. Several ETFs had losses of up to +30% where the underlying holdings only dropped 9%, because of a fast-moving market with a lack of buyers. Thinner markets mean larger and more frequent gaps, even with "circuit breakers" in place. That is poison for the ETF longs.

    Aug 29, 2015. 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If We've Already Soft Landed, The Fed's Worst Nightmare Could Be On Deck [View article]
    Agree with you.
    Aug 29, 2015. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Situation Critical: Everything's Starting To Crash [View article]
    If you want to talk about aggregate living standards, how about this fact:

    Median Household Income (adj for inflation) is virtually at the same level today as it was in the year 2000. You call that a "recovery"? Home ownership is at its lowest level (as % of pop.) in 45 years. Wage growth is very anemic. Over 70% of the job growth in last 6 years was in the energy sector. Guess where that job growth is now with oil at $40/bbl? Gone. It's been replaced with burger flippers, bartenders, and hospitality clerks, all making not even half what the oil/nat gas sector was paying.
    This recovery is a joke. And a bad one at that.
    Aug 29, 2015. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Did You Freak This Week? [View article]
    I don't consider myself a nervous investor but let's remember what we faced this week. The S&P Index closed more than FOUR standard deviations below its 50-day MA for three (3) consecutive sessions. That is only the 2nd time it's happened in the history of the index and has not happened since May of 1940, 75 years ago. Not exactly your "garden variety" pullback. I think we can excuse traders for not entering the fray in this chaos. Another metric to consider; the VIX increased over 50% in a matter of days. Another sign of incredible stress, anxiety, and fear among investors.
    Bur forgetting all of the above there is a more than 50/50 chance we have NOT finished the correction just yet. The conditions are still in place that lead to asset overvaluation, counterparty risk, and liquidity concerns.
    Don't pat yourself on the back just yet. We are clearly not out of the woods just yet.

    Aug 29, 2015. 07:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: Buy This Dividend Gold Mine As The Market Panics [View article]
    Interesting. I am happy for you. I had a buy limit in for JNJ also on Tues at 90.29. It didn't get filled so it expired. On Wednesday I was involved in an all-day meeting and forgot about JNJ. Then I saw it ended up close to $94!
    I will be the first to admit I am an investor and not a trader. And with this mind-numbing volatility of the past week it has shaken my confidence in stocks. Bear in mind I am not an investment novice (managing several portfolios since 2002). I can honestly say I lost my nerve and felt OK with the JNJ order expiring. That generally does not happen to me. Unless you are a HFT or "catch the wave" as you did, you are totally at the mercy of this insane volatility. Just my opinion, but I do NOT think we are out of the woods just yet. Good luck with JNJ. Solid blue-chip.

    Aug 27, 2015. 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    You nailed it. Which is why I never pay attention to market openings. It's what happens between 2-4 PM that tells the tale. I placed a limit order last night to buy JNJ and T. At the close today I saw that both orders missed execution literally by pennies. After hours I cancelled both orders. Even blue-chips are vulnerable here. My biggest problem is that with all the Fed intervention in the markets it has become virtually impossible to ascertain the market value of stocks. Is JNJ cheap at $90? Have no idea. Is T a buy with almost a 6% yield. Again, I don't have a clue.
    This is an incredibly dangerous market. And the pundits telling you not to sell and not to worry are out of their minds. You can't ignore the risk of a +4,000 pt. intraday move in the DJIA. That is truly insane.

    Aug 25, 2015. 06:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe? [View article]
    Maybe, but the point remains very few investors knew that going into Monday. So as others pointed out here, the Algos were the only ones to benefit from the temporary dislocation in share prices. Prices moved dramatically in nano-seconds. Unless you placed your limit order BEFORE trading began yesterday you were out of luck. What an incredibly "rigged" market this is.
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:47 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will They Or Won't They? The September Rate Hike Question Remains [View article]
    Uhh, actually the Sept rate hike does not remain. Unless you want to ignore the carnage in the markets over the past 3 days. There is absolutely ZERO reason to even consider a rate hike right here. End of story.
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprising Market Probabilities Of $10 Oil, $100 Oil And More [View article]
    Not necessarily. A lot depends on where the US dollar (USD) is headed. If the USD continues to strenghthen then that is one possibility. But if we stay at $20 for long then we will be facing a bigger problem; a global depression. Be careful what you wish for. One issue we must face is that despite the fracking boom, we still need to operate 10x the amount of rigs Mid-eastern countries operate to get the same level of production. Add in the fact that we have almost reached the "crossover" point where more energy is required to produce a bbl of oil than that bbl delivers in energy output.

    Aug 18, 2015. 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If We've Already Soft Landed, The Fed's Worst Nightmare Could Be On Deck [View article]
    The credit markets (smartest people in the room) are forecasting a "flattening" yield curve which is bearish and not bullish for the economy.

    Aug 16, 2015. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PPI increases more than expected in July [View news story]
    No it isn't. The china devalue action took a rate hike off the table until 2016.
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies Ahead For Dividend Stocks? [View article]
    Sorry, but I would NEVER buy a mutual fund with any type of load, whether it is front or back. Do you realize when you purchase a "front-loaded" A share you automatically lose as much as 5% of your upfront investment capital? Mutual funds are for losers.
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Still Ridiculously Wrong [View article]
    I'm talking about going forward from HERE (2015) not 2009. Hell, everyone made money from 2009-2015. Its about where will the growth be in 2015-2020. Why are you so "snarky"? Feeling superior to everyone I suppose. I guess you are smarter than Klarman n Druckenmiller. Just for the record we are talking about 2 guys who averaged +20% annual returns over an extended period. If they are "leaving the table" the smart person should want to know why. Obviously, that is not you.
    Aug 13, 2015. 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Still Ridiculously Wrong [View article]
    I don't want to speak for the author but I think his main point was that QE has benefited the 1% but the 99% not so much. And you must agree this inane endless chatter about "When will the Fed raise rates" is becoming tiresome. A case can be made that if the economy was as strong as you suggest the Fed would have raised rates long ago. Alas, it never happened. There are also some incorrect statements being made that the Labor Participation Rate is lower due to baby boomers retiring. I don't believe that is the case as the last 3-4 NFP reports showed job growth being highest among the +55 year old group.
    I agree with you that the "carry trade" is dead as is the great commodity supercycle. It died with the slowdown in China's growth. My portfolio rode that supercycle higher from 2002-2008. But after the credit crisis in 2008 I dramatically altered my portfolio with less exposure to commodities and more weight toward dividend payers/defensive stocks. In the current investing environment I can't discern any real "secular" trend worth investing in. We are being buffeted by deflationary headwinds right now. And with all the Fed market intervention, frankly it has become very difficult to determine an accurate market value for stocks. That is the reason why seasoned money managers like Klarman and Druckenmiller have exited the markets.
    You raise a lot of good points. But by no means are we out of the woods just yet.

    Aug 13, 2015. 01:25 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment