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epeon

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  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    The "hole" Jack Welch dug it in? You mean, when GE was 60? Gosh, I am sure that there is a legion of GE stockholders that are praying for another such "hole."
    Mar 3 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    Read the following:

    http://bit.ly/1g4E3os

    I will take a quote from it:

    If fugitive methane emissions from oil and gas systems are indeed five times greater than previously estimated, that would imply a leakage rate in the range of 5-15 percent of total production. Not only is this a substantial quantity of product vanishing into the air (natural gas is primarily methane), it is also significantly higher than most previous estimates – including from industry – and would reduce or eliminate any advantage natural gas has over coal from a climate standpoint. While natural gas emits roughly half the CO2 of coal at the point of combustion, because methane is such a powerful greenhouse gas, any fugitive methane that escapes during the drilling, processing, or transmission of natural gas serves to lessen that benefit.

    My one caveat is that the study is based on 2007 data. And, since then, industry has made significant efforts to reduce fugitive gas emissions. So, what is the leadage rate today? I don't know.
    Mar 3 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    Is natural gas really more "green" than coal or oil? Probably not. Why? Natural gas leaks. We have a surprising amount of natural gas that leaks throughout our system to the atmosphere. Since methane (i.e. natural gas) absorbs CO2 about 50 times more efficiently than does CO2, you can make quite a good case than natural gas produces more "global warming" (if you believe in global warming) that does Coal or Oil.
    Mar 2 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    I love all these comments from people who have no clue about the engineering behind things like flare gas. Nobody likes to flare gas and the EPA does crack down on it. Most oil and gas fields, today, have no flaring under normal operations. They flare when they have an upset, something that has gone wrong. And, they flare for safety reasons. But, this is so intermittent that it would be impossible to make money trying to run a turbine on it.

    Secondly, when they do flare, the chemical composition is all over the map. This, too, would be hard to build a turbine for. The best use for wellhead gas is to put it into a pipeline and sell it.
    Mar 2 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    Gas Turbines are no where near 60% efficient (read Carnot's law on thermo). A Gas turbine in a combined cycle with the gas turbine's output driving a boiler, gets closer. However, a combined cycle plant is very capital intensive.

    A supercritical coal fired boiler is probably the lowest cost alternative. It is fairly efficient (not as much as a combine cycle) but relatively cheap to build (i.e. less capital). However, it requires very skilled people to do the welding and right now the permiting for coal fired plants is impossible.

    Right now, the spot price for central appalachian coal is about $62/ton. A ton of coal at 12,500 BTU/pound is $62/25 million BTU. This is around $2.48/million BTU. Natural gas is around $5.5/million BTU. Of course, with a long term contract, you can Central Appalachian down to $45/ton. Out west, Powder River Basin coal is about $12.35/ton. It is about 16 million btus/ton. Or about $.75/million BTUs. So, Coal is less than half the price of natural gas in the East and about 15% of the price out west.

    So, if cost is a consideration, coal wins every time. It is just that the EPA has declared war on coal.
    Mar 2 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    First, Jeff Immelt has never made the stockholder any money. The stock is about 40% of what it was when he took over. Secondly, even today, its P/E is over 18. I think it is rather well valued. I guess I just don't see any reason to get excited about this stock. If you think that this is the age of natural gas, fine. Go out and buy a driller or an oil company. but, not GE.
    Feb 26 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts' takes on Annaly results [View news story]
    I was pretty pleased with NLY's reports. When you are getting 10% + dividends, a report with a slight increase in earnings (enough to cover the divy) is pretty good. So, I continue to hold.
    Feb 26 02:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Annaly Capital Paradox [View article]
    Can the federal government allow long term fed rates to go to 4%. If they do, they end up paying about $700 billion on the debt. I don't think they can afford this and Yellin knows it.
    Dec 27 03:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Drive Emerson Electric Forward? [View article]
    First, it is Fischer valves, not Fischer. Secondly, I love these pervavise sensors that require NO maintenance? Great, how do I get one? I know of no one else that can do that.

    Thirdly, acquisitions are probably the WORST way to get growth. The vast majority of acquisitions fail. This industry is replete with horror stories: ABB buying Combustion Engineering (and Taylor with it), ABB buy Elsag Bailey, Foxboro being bought by Invensys, etc. Most acquistions don't catalyze growth.

    And, fourthly, EMR is a good company and dominates a lot of markets. But, they are slow growing markets. Hard to see how EMR gets much growth from here.
    Nov 22 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Donzinger defends himself against Chevron bribery claims [View news story]
    I don't think CVX will be on the hook for billions. They have shown, clearly, that this was a judgement based on bribery. Any other country that tries to uphold this judgement will have western companies fleeing. No, I think CVX's lawyers did a masterful job.

    Frankly, when I read about the manipulation of the court, I doubled my CVX position.
    Nov 20 01:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Litigation Woes Abate, Freeing Up Cash [View article]
    I have been following the Ecuador court case in NYC. The evidence is damning. The plaintiff (Donzinger, et al) were obviously corrupt. The Ecuadorian judge was so clueless about his opinion it was obvious that someone else wrote it. This case was fraud from the getgo. Donzinger should go to jail.
    Nov 14 07:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Bearish On Shares Of Annaly Capital [View article]
    my instincts tell me that the bad news is in this stock. It is already dropped significantly. Still has a book value premium and pays a very good dividend. I think the market is over-reacting and now is a good entry point.
    Nov 11 07:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few More Reasons Behind My Decision To Remain Long On Shares Of Chevron [View article]
    the recent court peformance of the Ecuadorian judge must have been uplifting for CVX shareholders. The judge was clueless. It was obvious that someone else had written his opinion. The case against CVX is coming apart.
    Nov 11 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: A Dividend Champion In Trouble? [View article]
    I don't know if you still follow this suit, but the cross-examination of the Ecuadorian judge was very illuminating. It was, actually, almost hilarious. The judge had no knowledge of the opinion that he supposedly wrote. It had footnotes in language he didn't speak. And, yet, we have a $19 billion judgement based upon this opinion. It was obvious that someone (evidence points to the plaintiffs) actually wrote this opinion. What a farce.
    Nov 9 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Dow Dogs Chase 10% To 16% October Upsides [View article]
    CISCO? Please. CISCO hit 22 in 1998. Open your dictionary and look up "Dead Money" and, yep, there is CISCO. This stock has done nothing for 15 years. Until recently, it did not even pay a dividend. Sure, it now pays 3%, but that is it. Why should this stock go up now? What new product or service do they offer? Well, none. CISCO stays in the 22 - 24 range for the next few years.
    Oct 21 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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