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epeon

epeon
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  • Coal Stocks Look Ready To Run [View article]
    First, the rise in natural gas prices is not due to any conspiracy. I work in the business. At $2/tcf natural gas is just not profitable to drill for. Because of this, the number of natural gas rigs is dropping. Furthermore, when you dril for oil you always get some natural gas. Often this natural gas is sour (high sulfur content). Companies used to sell this to someone who would clean it or they would clean. Now, they just re-inject this acidgas back in the formation. Frankly, the amount of natural gas available to the market is dropping and will do so until we get about $4.50/tcf.

    Secondly, the industry is starting to build LNG plants. This will ship natural gas overseas.

    The only flaw in the argument for coal is the EPA is decreasing demand. Obama won and elections have consequences. So, although I have some coal stocks, I remain neutral. I will not increase my position until I see the EPA change its attitude.
    Nov 29 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: A Dividend Champion In Trouble? [View article]
    Oh, there was damage done by Texaco to the environment. They spent billions to fix that. Ecuador agreed and gave them essentially a "quit claim" as they turned over assets to Ecuadorian companies. Most of the damage you see today was down by Ecuadorian companies. Still going on. The pipelines, for example, are not maintained and leak like sieves. But, this isn't Chevron's responsibility.

    Furthermore, if you followed Ecuadorian politics and what has happened to Petro Ecuador, you know that there are legal shenanigans going on and have been done so for years. This effort to reach back decades to get CVX is just a legal crime. As far as Argentina and Brazil are concerned, they are becoming third world, too, in that they are willing to twist the law for a fast buck. I know that if I was a CEO in Brazil or Argentina I would try to sell or pull out my assets. It is way too risky.
    Nov 27 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: A Dividend Champion In Trouble? [View article]
    First, I have done business in Ecuador and have good knowledge of the lawsuit. It is without merit. Secondly, if the lawyers can manipulate a third wold country's legal system (an easy thing to do) and leverage that into decisions in other countries than legal chaos will run amok. Do you think other lawyers are oblivious? How soon till lawyers start attacking Exxon, Shell, and BP the same way?

    The downside to the investor is obvious. However, this makes investing in a third wold so risky that no major company will do so. If I was a CEO I would, right now, be looking for some way to get my investment out of Brazil, Argentina, etc.
    Nov 26 10:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks To Trade, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    I do not believe BTU is a good short. I believe it has gone down in a "panic selling" move because of the Obama re-election. Yes, coal usage in the US will go down with the EPA making coal burning more difficult. However, BTU is predominantly an overseas seller. Many of their holdings are in Australia and ship to China. I believe that BTU will recover and pretty soon (I almost said shortly, but that would be such a bad pun).
    Nov 14 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Buy This Coal MLP Below $60 [View article]
    I think you are totally wrong. ARLP is a very good company. Probably the best in the domestic coal mining sector. But, it is a sector that the EPA has declared war on. We will see coal displaced by other fuels because that is exactly what the EPA wants. Elections have consequences and this one will be negative for the coal industry.
    Nov 10 12:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changes In The Coal Landscape [View article]
    I was a longterm holder of ARLP. I started writing covered calls against and lost it at $65. I recently bought in when it dropped below $60 and wrote a covered call against it at $65. I kind of think that is the way it is going to be for a while. Buy ARLP on a dip below $60 and write covered calls at $65. Unless Romney wins, I don't see ARLP going up much above $65.
    Nov 2 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Still On A Roll After Earnings [View article]
    I agree. I purchased BP after it crashed to $40. Frankly, I have been a bit disappointed since it really has not gone any where. I think, given its payout and low PE, the reason it has gone no where is the uncertainity around the eventual costs of the gulf of mexico disaster. I think it is, however, a good risk in the low 40s and I am keeping my position.

    and, yes, the gentleman is right that XOM has been a better investment the last few years. I do not have XOM but I did have CVX which also did well. I also own LINE and EXXI. The former has done well, the latter has not.
    Oct 30 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Conglomerates To Consider For Your Portfolio [View article]
    this is a one year followup to my comments.

    GE has gone from 18 to 21 with a 3% dividend

    ABB has gone from 18 to 18 with a flat dividend

    BRK/B has gone from 75 to 85 with no dividend

    The above is, of course, against a backdrop in which the market has, as a whole, gone up 20%. In that context, ABB has been the looser, BRK/B has been mediocre, and GE is OK.
    Oct 25 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why General Motors Is Not Headed For Bankruptcy Again [View article]
    Here is why GM is going bankrupt again:

    1. their cars are not that good.
    2. their cars are overpriced
    3. they are stuck with UAW labor so their costs are too high
    4. the bailout really angered a lot of people. They aren't going to be buying from government motors soon.
    Oct 25 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Add Some Joy To Your Portfolio [View article]
    First, you avoid commodities? Wow! I have made a ton of money on commodities. Not only do the oil companies, for example, make good money but they pay a decent dividend while you wait. Secondly, I have purchased and sold JOY several times. My last purchase was when JOY dropped below $55. As it goes above $62 I have a little doubt.
    Oct 22 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ABB Management Discusses Q2 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I was reading about this adjustment and that adjustment so it really wasn't all that bad. Sounds like Obama, full of excuses.
    Jul 29 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Neglecting Oil Stocks [View article]
    CVX was found guilty by a third world kangaroo court that was shown to be corrupt. If they can actually extort money this way (their suit had zero merit), you think some other third world country will not do the same?
    Jul 8 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy's 8.0% Yield Likely To Increase For Retirees [View article]
    I have owned LINE for several years and have been happy with it. I think its current price ($35.50) is depressed because oil and natural gas prices have dropped. However, I do not believe that this will be longterm (i.e. prices will rise over the next years). Therefore, I have increased my position in LINE.
    Jun 26 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rally Or Collapse? What To Expect From The U.S. Stock Market Through Year End [View article]
    you are long BAC and Cisco? BAC only pays a dividend if Barack allows it. You are waiting on his good graces. As far as Cisco, it has NEVER been good to stockholders in over a decade.
    Jun 18 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With 4.1% Dividend-Yielder ABB? [View article]
    ABB is not a bad company but not really outstanding, either. Its automation business is very much an "also-ran" and does not have a dominant position in the US. Sure, its sales are up in the US but that is mainly because it has been depressed so long. Hogan's announcement that he is resurecting Harmony indicates that a decade of R&D and marketing direction hasn't produced anything better. Not something that excites me.

    Its earnings have missed expectations and it is no secret that Europe is in bad shape. So my expectations for ABB are rather mediocre. Maybe if you can get if for $10 to $12 than it would be ok.
    May 15 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
507 Comments
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